FEDERAL DEBT PRIMED TO EXPLODE...


MMT treats all spending the same. Spending is part of a functioning economy but it isn't the driver. Cuba can spend as much money as it wants. MMT completely ignores the supply side. Production and innovation drives standards of living. The goal is to maximize productivity. The government is wasteful and unproductive. Government spending doesn't face a market test. Government spending takes productive workers and resources from the private sector and puts them to work inefficiently.

Then there are the practical problems with government spending even if you ignore the productivity argument. Government spending isn't a faucet you can turn on and off. You have to pass legislation and figure out how to spend that money. That is time consuming. Then it isn't like you can just turn spending off once it starts. "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program."
 
Krugminator2. Thanks for the comment, I'm definitely interested in having a conversation with you about this. Some of what I'm going to say will be controversial or perhaps seem downright ludicrous. I hope you will ask questions where you think I'm mistaken and continue this as a conversation.


MMT treats all spending the same.

MMT as an economic discipline has NOTHING to say about where to spend, those are political choices. Even if those choices are wrong, MMT is still correct in that, as a discipline it does not prescribe policiy choices it just descibes how the fiat money system has worked since 1971. Understanding the effects of spending and how money are spent are two different things. However, most well-informed MMT'ers will insist that where money is spent matters, but any MMT'er worth their salt should understand that MMT is a description, not a prescription of economics. Thus MMT informs peoples opinions, but those opinions aren't part of MMT.

For example, I can describe to you how solar power works, but if you support solar power policies, that has nothing to do with the description of how solar works. It's your opinion based on your understanding of solar power.

Spending is part of a functioning economy but it isn't the driver.

You are quite right.

If we're going to analogize...how about this one:

Supply is the "driver", demand is the "fuel" and money is the "road".

Without supply, there is nothing else.

Cuba can spend as much money as it wants.

Pointing out that a country can spend as much as it wants teaches us 1 simple lesson. That any nation that has a sovereign free-floating currency can create and spend as much as it wants and this teaches us that spending isn't constrained by taxes. That's it. That's all you should have taken from that statement if you read that somewhere. If you assumed the rest, that was a mistake on your part. Just as if you asked me if I can jump off a 10-story roof and I answered; "yes" and assuming that because I answered yes that I assumed that I could do it without facing the consequences that come when I hit the ground.Sovereign money nations can create all the currency they want, but that isn't the same as saying that they should.

MMT completely ignores the supply side.

Can you cite anyone considered an authority in MMT that has stated that?

Production and inndriven drives standards of living. The goal is to maximize productivity.

Agree 100%, which means the real question is how to achieve it.

The government is wasteful and unproductive.

What does it waste?

If productivity is paramount, then the only way that government spending could be "unproductive" is if the money is used is zero-sum, or the products it purchases is zero-sum.

Now of course productivity has limits, specifically real resources and labor and MMT recognizes that spending is constrained by real resources and labor (productivity) and that overspending will result in inflation (the economic constraint). That should tell you that productivity is pivotal to MMT.

Government spending doesn't face a market test. Government spending takes productive workers and resources from the private sector and puts them to work inefficiently.

That's only true if real resources and labor are unavailable. If there are unemployment and resources available to meet higher levels of demand, then nothing is taken, in fact, the economy in question will experience growth.

The government can overspend and distort prices, this is true, but this is a deeper can of worms I don't want to delve into right now.

Then there are the practical problems with government spending even if you ignore the productivity argument. Government spending isn't a faucet you can turn on and off. You have to pass legislation and figure out how to spend that money. That is time consuming. Then it isn't like you can just turn spending off once it starts. "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program."

Most of the money spent each year (about 4/5ths) comes from the private sector. Banks take existing reserves (government money) and expand their balance sheets by creating credit money (banks liability) and depositing the customers promise to pay (asset) and securing it with the banks capital (investor dollars).

The Banking system has been created to be "elastic" so that it can expand or contract based on the demand (or lack of) for goods and services.

Government (Congressional spending) deficits add to banking reserves, government surpluses remove them.

The Fed (which is technically part of the executive branch) can manipulate the number of reserves available in the banking system, however, it cannot create or destroy them.

The demand for money is measured against available reserves and this is how the interest rates (pre-2008) was set. Post 2008 the Banking system is swamped with reserves so the Fed sets the rate directly by paying interest on reserves.
 
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I think it is time to classify it as something else entirely . Debt describes money that is to be pd back . What we have here is just a huge amount of money that will have interest pd on it . Nothing else .
 
Former Speaker John Boehner: Deficit will be 'No. 1 issue' in six months



  • John Boehner warned that the normalization of interest rates would have a whipsaw effect on the deficit.
  • The former speaker supported GOP tax cuts and blamed a lack of entitlement reform for the expanding deficit.
  • He said failure to balance the budget had to be Paul Ryan's "biggest disappointment."

James Thorne Published 23 Hours Ago

Former Speaker John Boehner: Deficit will be 'number one issue' in six months 20 Hours Ago | 01:51



Former Speaker of the House John Boehner said that the U.S. government deficit would become the No. 1 political issue in about six months.
"As interest rates continue to get to a normal level, it's going to have a huge whipsaw effect on the deficit," Boehner told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."
Boehner voiced support for the tax cuts but lamented President Donald Trump's decision to maintain spending on entitlements. "I have to believe it's Paul Ryan's biggest disappointment as speaker," he said. "Paul Ryan had a plan to balance the budget over 10 years."
 
Former Speaker John Boehner: Deficit will be 'No. 1 issue' in six months



  • John Boehner warned that the normalization of interest rates would have a whipsaw effect on the deficit.
  • The former speaker supported GOP tax cuts and blamed a lack of entitlement reform for the expanding deficit.
  • He said failure to balance the budget had to be Paul Ryan's "biggest disappointment."

James Thorne Published 23 Hours Ago

Former Speaker John Boehner: Deficit will be 'number one issue' in six months 20 Hours Ago | 01:51



Former Speaker of the House John Boehner said that the U.S. government deficit would become the No. 1 political issue in about six months.
"As interest rates continue to get to a normal level, it's going to have a huge whipsaw effect on the deficit," Boehner told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."
Boehner voiced support for the tax cuts but lamented President Donald Trump's decision to maintain spending on entitlements. "I have to believe it's Paul Ryan's biggest disappointment as speaker," he said. "Paul Ryan had a plan to balance the budget over 10 years."

Paul Ryan's balanced budget called for $5.2 trillion in spending cuts over ten years but also called for $5.7 trillion in tax cuts which would not balance the budget. $2 trillion of the cuts assumed that Obamacare was repealed (counting the spending cuts but not counting the tax cuts towards his "balanced" budget).

https://www.vox.com/cards/paul-ryan-budget/what-does-paul-ryans-budget-do-with-taxes

ryan-tax-cuts-spending-cuts.jpg


Rand Paul submitted a balanced budget proposal which assumed that tax revenues were 25% higher after five years.
 
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Former Speaker John Boehner: Deficit will be 'No. 1 issue' in six months



  • John Boehner warned that the normalization of interest rates would have a whipsaw effect on the deficit.
  • The former speaker supported GOP tax cuts and blamed a lack of entitlement reform for the expanding deficit.
  • He said failure to balance the budget had to be Paul Ryan's "biggest disappointment."

James Thorne Published 23 Hours Ago

Former Speaker John Boehner: Deficit will be 'number one issue' in six months 20 Hours Ago | 01:51



Former Speaker of the House John Boehner said that the U.S. government deficit would become the No. 1 political issue in about six months.
"As interest rates continue to get to a normal level, it's going to have a huge whipsaw effect on the deficit," Boehner told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."
Boehner voiced support for the tax cuts but lamented President Donald Trump's decision to maintain spending on entitlements. "I have to believe it's Paul Ryan's biggest disappointment as speaker," he said. "Paul Ryan had a plan to balance the budget over 10 years."

I'm curious, how do you think higher interest rates affect the US economy?
 
I'm curious, how do you think higher interest rates affect the US economy?

When the Fed was trying to lower interest rates, folks were complaining that rates were artificially too low and that it would cause inflation (even hyperinflation) and ruin the economy. Now that the Fed has started to very slowly raise interest rates, people complain that higher interest rates will choke off the economy- ruining it again.
 
When the Fed was trying to lower interest rates, folks were complaining that rates were artificially too low and that it would cause inflation (even hyperinflation) and ruin the economy. Now that the Fed has started to very slowly raise interest rates, people complain that higher interest rates will choke off the economy- ruining it again.

Personally, I'm for Zirp as long as people can't use borrowed money (ie. leverage) to gamble with on Wall St.

Having said that, I'm curious to see if any of the naysayers will answer my question.
 
Personally, I'm for Zirp as long as people can't use borrowed money (ie. leverage) to gamble with on Wall St.

Having said that, I'm curious to see if any of the naysayers will answer my question.

Rates are pretty much set by the market. The Fed only determines what they charge banks to borrow overnight. They did try to influence longer term rates with QE when they were buying US Treasury bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities. Interest rates are lower when the rate of inflation is lower.

Treasury rates are determined by auction- supply and demand. The Federal Reserve does not participate in those auctions but buys from dealers in the resale market. And those purchases are also auctions- they say how many they wish to buy and the sellers say how many they would be interested in selling and at what price. The Fed pays the lowest price which gets them the total amount of notes they want. All sellers of that round get the same price.
 
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Rates are pretty much set by the market.

Interesting. I disagree. Perhaps we can have a conversation and see if one of us can convince the other.

The Fed only determines what they charge banks to borrow overnight.

With respect, I believe you have an incomplete understanding of the process. There are two "regular" places banks can acquire reserves. The discount window (the Fed) and the overnight window (other banks). Borrowing directly from the Fed is generally frowned upon if there are reserves in the banking system as it means that other banks see the borrowing bank as an unacceptable risk. (usually as a result of poor decision making by the bank in question) Thus (pre-2008) most lending was done within the system and the Fed simply manipulated the scarcity of reserves in the system as a way to target the rate it wanted to see.

They did try to influence longer term rates with QE when they were buying US Treasury bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities.

I'll agree with this, though in the case of MBS's there was a bit more to it.

Interest rates are lower when the rate of inflation is lower.

Perhaps I'm looking at the wrong stats? I'm not seeing a correlation between rates and inflation..

fredgraph.png


There does look to be a slight inverse correlation, at least looking back, less so since 1990, would you agree?


Treasury rates are determined by auction- supply and demand. The Federal Reserve does not participate in those auctions but buys from dealers in the resale market. And those purchases are also auctions- they say how many they wish to buy and the sellers say how many they would be interested in selling and at what price. The Fed pays the lowest price which gets them the total amount of notes they want. All sellers of that round get the same price.

With respect, that's incorrect. The auctions determine the cost of Treasuries via supply and demand, not the cost of interest rates.

Pre-2008 rates were determined by the level of excess reserves in the banking system. The mechanism worked like this. As I'm sure you know large banks are required to keep 10% in reserves for each loan they make. Hopefully, you also know that banks don't have to have the reserves in their possession at the time a loan is made (using colloquial terms). In other words, let's say I borrow $25k to buy a car. If the bank, at the moment the approve my loan does not have the required $250 in reserves, that's ok (reserves do not constrain lending as long as there are reserves to be borrowed somewhere in the banking system). Lenders are always aware of the cost of reserves from the discount window and the cost of my loan reflects that cost.

Holding excess reserves was (pre-2008) considered a waste of money as banks weren't paid on any excess they held. The Fed could manipulate the interest rate by manipulating the scarcity of reserves which it did via the FMOC. If it wanted its target rate to be higher it would create dollar liabilities and use those dollars to buy government Treasuries (an action the Fed coordinated with the US Treasury). This would have the effect of increasing the reserves levels in the banking system and decreasing the scarcity of reserves. This was just a balance sheet operation. Basically, this could be done by expanding its balance sheet because purchasing Treasuries expanded both its assets (treasuries) and liabilities (dollars created).

The increase in dollars in the system would decrease the scarcity of reserves would put downward pressure on the overnight rate that banks charged each other and ultimately lower the rate that banks charge you and me.

Raising rates is just the opposite.

Post-2008, obviously, QE added trillions of dollars in reserves to the banking system which was done in order to increase the asset side of a banks balance sheet by buying a banks bonds or it could purchase MBS's and remove the (future) liability.

Under the new system, I just described the result was that rates would permanently fall to zero until scarcity of reserves could be reestablished or a new system was created. We know the former was what the Fed chose. The Fed now simply pays interest on reserves which effectively creates an interest rate floor below which banks have zero incentive to lend as earning interest from the government represents the lowest risk.

The thought at the time was that Milton Friedman was right and that increasing reserve levels would encourage banks to lend. What wasn't considered is that banks cannot and do not lend reserves because banks don't lend money they possess (something I went over in my conversation with devil21 HERE). Loans (credit) are created when people create an asset (their loan) and the bank, in turn, creates dollars (it's liability). That is, banks create money when they expand their balance sheets and destroy money when they shrink their balance sheets (this is what happened during the GFC), something I'm sure you know as a "liquidity crisis". While QE was largely a failure, it did create liquidity which fixed the banking half of the problem, however, it didn't address Main St's problem of higher debt-to-income ratio's as a result of the loss in equity realized in the private sector. This had the effect of increasing aggregate risk in the private sector and, again in the aggregate, made lending more expensive even as rates were at record lows. Hence the massive slowdown in borrowing. People with higher rate loans, even those with good credit couldn't refi because the amounts owed on their homes was greater than the amount left on many peoples loans.

In conclusion, the market does not determine rates because rates are linked to reserve levels. As long as the US government increases it's deficits reserve levels increase (as this increases exogenous money or so-called "high powered money" or base money) meaning there is always a large pool of excess reserves and rates will always be zero of left unmanipulated. Many want the government to get out of manipulation of rates believing that the rate is determined by the market (the natural rate of interest). Ironically, in our current system (post-1971) the natural rate has always been 0%, it takes the Fed's manipulation to increase rates above zero.

I'll leave it there and let you respond.

Respectfully,

E4E1
 
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Debt is a global problem.
– Global debt bubble hits new all time high – over $237 trillion
– Global debt increased 10% or $21 tn in 2017 to nearly a quarter quadrillion USD
– Increase in debt equivalent to United States’ ballooning national debt
– Global debt up $50 trillion in decade & over 327% of global GDP
– $750 trillion of bank derivatives means global debt over $1 quadrillion
...

https://news.goldcore.com/us/gold-b...ime-high-one-quadrillion-reasons-to-buy-gold/

So, in response the to 2007/2008 crisis (or crises if you prefer to think that the world is not globally connected) and it's aftermath, central banks around the globe danced their way to ZIRP (or even NIRP). There is no where to go from here. Raising rates will only feed the already ballooning debt spiral.

Pretty sure there was a moose out front once a upon a time that warned folks about the dangers of fiat currencies, but we live in an enlightened age I guess. I don't understand how anyone thinks we can play shoot the moon with infinitely long rails.

zon1325_046_h.jpg
 
Debt is a global problem.

https://news.goldcore.com/us/gold-b...ime-high-one-quadrillion-reasons-to-buy-gold/

So, in response the to 2007/2008 crisis (or crises if you prefer to think that the world is not globally connected) and it's aftermath, central banks around the globe danced their way to ZIRP (or even NIRP). There is no where to go from here. Raising rates will only feed the already ballooning debt spiral.

Pretty sure there was a moose out front once a upon a time that warned folks about the dangers of fiat currencies, but we live in an enlightened age I guess. I don't understand how anyone thinks we can play shoot the moon with infinitely long rails.

zon1325_046_h.jpg



If money is debt and people need money to transact business and the population of the world is increasing AND productivity per-person is increasing shouldn't the debt increase for both population and productivity so money exists to purchase output?

In other words, let's say we have 100 people.

Each person (on average) can produce $10,000 of G&S annually, that's a maximum output of $1 million dollars for 100 people of potential productive output. If the velocity of money is 5 (each dollar changes hands 5 times) then the economy will need approximately $200,000 in it for everyone to transact their business in dollars. This example assumes that every dollar earned is in turn spent, because if every dollar wasn't spent and rather saved, then the number of dollars would have to increase or velocity would have to increase or prices would have to decline or output would have to increase.

Now let's move ahead 10 years. Let's say the population is the same but per-person productivity has doubled (thanks to technology).

So now each person (on average) can produce $20,000 worth of goods. So now the potential output of the economy has doubled. Assuming velocity stays the same (in reality velocity varies very little), the economy will need twice as much money to assure that everyone that wants to transact in the economy can if prices stay stable.

The same is true if productivity stays the same but population doubles. Total output will double and more money will be needed to transact business.

Now, what happens if the population double AND per-person productivity doubles? Then the output is quadrupled (2x2x2=8) and it takes 4 times as much money to ensure proper functioning of the same markets. This is why the amount of debt is accelerating because population AND per-person productivity are increasing.

Anyone that believes that gold is the solution is saying that they don't want the amount of money to keep pace with productivity. Instead, they'd like to see either price change or the value of the money change (essentially these are the same thing).

Since the amount of gold is finite and the amount that can be created at any given time can only accelerate a few percent if productivity and population grow faster than the money supply and with gold (especially in modern times) that will be the case. When the amount of money cannot keep pace with increases in productivity, then prices or the value of money will change as a result. To be clear, prices decreasing or the value of money increases are, economically the same thing, however, instability in either prices or the value of money increases volatility and uncertainty and results in market and economic inefficiency which usually manifests itself as unemployment.
 
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... Since the amount of gold is finite and the amount that can be created at any given time can only accelerate a few percent if productivity and population grow faster than the money supply and with gold (especially in modern times) that will be the case. ...

...
Monetary economists distinguish a benign deflation (due to the output of goods growing rapidly while the stock of money grows slowly, as in the 1880-1900 period) from a harmful deflation (due to unanticipated shrinkage in the money stock). The gold standard was a source of mild benign deflation in periods when the output of goods grew faster than the stock of gold. Prices particularly fell for those goods whose production enjoyed great technological improvement (for example oil and steel after 1880). Strong growth of real output, for particular goods or in general, cannot be considered harmful.
...

More: https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/bp100.pdf

Would you object to Ron Paul's Competing Currencies Act (see link in signature) if it were introduced today?
 
You mean like in this sense?
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No, I mean in this sense:

Question, would Fed notes be one of the competing currencies?

Nobody is trying to limit the possibilities for you. Why do you feel the need to 'answer' the question with a question? Pick one. Flip a coin--heads for yes, tails for no--and give us an answer already.

I asked that same question the very day you popped up in our midst, and I'm still waiting for an answer--any answer. The FRN is one. The FRN isn't one. Pick your own variable and give us an answer.
 
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