Explain the coming collapse to me

Havax

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Please try to be realistic as possible. Assuming Ron isn't elected, when do we think it will happen?

What will it look like?
Will everyone's stocks become immediately worthless?
Will the dollar collapse?
When the dollar collapse does every cent I have in my savings account get wiped out and never to be redeemed?
Does this mean everyone is a fool for having any substantial savings in cash and should be converting it all to gold and silver?
Will there be a civil war that outbreaks and riots in the streets?
Will food become scarce?
 
The dollar becomes progressively weaker and oil-producing nations accelerate the pullout from the dollar, the Fed tries raising interest rates to stop the hemorrhaging leading to a total freeze-up of credit whereupon the US Treasury initiates a tsunami of spending hoping to stimulate consumerism but instead creates massive inflation that becomes a death-spiral of inflation and possibly hyperinflation.

OR the freeze-up in credit spurs the Fed to raise rates even more to stimulate lending leading to a deflationary death-spiral, foreclosures skyrocket as wages collapse, the minimum wage becomes an insurmountable hurdle and before Congress can act to lower or eliminate it we see close to 50% unemployment.

IN EITHER CASE

"Just In Time Logistics" dries up and the supermarket shelves go bare. The lack of food causes riots, particularly in urban and dense suburban areas. The National Guard is tasked with bringing in food relief to hungry rioters who in turn clash with the national guard trying desperately to force a larger share of food. Horribleness ensues, and martial law is declared, at which point many of the self-made militia types emerge from their bomb-shelters and engage the forces enforcing the police state and horrificness ensues.

Now all the unused tools of the police state go into effect. NDAA indefinite detention against Americans, targeted assassinations, PATRIOT surveillance with a vengeance, possible drone strikes against "terrorist headquarters" (coordinates collected in the last census) a strike misses and takes out an in-home daycare and people lose their shyt.

With no viable media (or, possibly, internet) with which to express outrage, the anger boils up and boils over into something akin to a real civil war.

America dissolves in bloodshed. The UN proposes a one-world government to restore order in the former United States, and hundreds of thousands of troops from a 50 nation coalition lands.

Worst case scenario.
 
On the bright side, I've heard rumors that there will be plenty of gruel in the FEMA camp commissaries.
 
Please try to be realistic as possible. Assuming Ron isn't elected, when do we think it will happen?

What will it look like?

Dont know. Never experienced the collapse of a society personally.

Will everyone's stocks become immediately worthless?

I doubt that. It would be a chain reaction. Say the value of the dollar drops suddenly for some reason. First places to get hit by crashing stock prices would be anyone with investments in finance. That triggers off a large scale domino effect.

Will the dollar collapse?

If we do not change our course, it is mathematically guaranteed. It is just a matter of time.

When the dollar collapse does every cent I have in my savings account get wiped out and never to be redeemed?

Your Savings Acct is not redeemable now in a currency of value. It is only redeemable in Fiat Currency. When the Value of the Fiat Currency drops, you might be able to pull that money out, say you had a hundred bucks, but a loaf of bread cost a thousand. The way they are stealing your money isnt by stealing the Quantity, they are stealing the Value, which you and everyone else sees as an increase in price of goods and services, but mostly fail to realize the price didnt really go up, the Value of your Fiat Currency went down.

Does this mean everyone is a fool for having any substantial savings in cash and should be converting it all to gold and silver?

It isnt foolish if you dont have the ability or resources to buy gold and silver. Look at other things of Value that can be Traded in a Barter System. What do you have if you have no worldly possessions? The ability to do Work. Work has value. Your Skills have Value. Your Abilities have Value. The Ability to learn HOW to Fix and Repair, and more importantly, how to Create. That can be Bartered.

Will there be a civil war that outbreaks and riots in the streets?

Probably not in a sense that the people are truly aware of the cause of the war. The blame will be shifted as quickly to anyone but the nature of the Dishonest Money System itself, even if that focus is on several major Banks.

Will food become scarce?

Definitely. No way around it. So much of our food is imported and no longer locally grown. You and I are Food Slaves, since being able to provide for yourself is pretty much outlawed. Think Katrina, but on a National Level.

(edit: fixed formatting)
 
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I think you need to spread your bets a bit here. I agree that the most likely scenario is a dollar collapse. In which case your savings denominated in fiat currency will be pretty worthless. That will be a total bummer.

However, I think its important to remember that the market forces want deflation. The only reason we don't have deflation is because the fed has been so aggressive. There is a huge tug of war going on between these two forces. Its always possible things go the other way and we get a deflationary spiral. In this case your bank savings are at risk due to default and not devaluation. In this scenario you'd be better off having cash stowed away outside of a bank.

Either case, you probably do pretty well having some food & other supplies stored away if you're concerned about a systemic type of collapse. There are likely to be some supply disruptions.

Its some pretty stark subject matter here. I'm sure, like me, Havax is wondering how all this will affect Maryland's recruiting. ;)
 
Please try to be realistic as possible. Assuming Ron isn't elected, when do we think it will happen?

I'd say between 1 and 10 years from now -- but it's more likely to be a process than an event. It may already be too late for RP to stop it if he's elected. The Ship of State is awfully big creature, with huge momentum all its own.

Will everyone's stocks become immediately worthless?

No, not everyone's and not immediately. Some stocks will periodically become worthless. An equally significant problem is that counterparty risk will continue to climb, as the stability of brokerages and exchanges becomes increasingly doubtful (like MF Global).

Will the dollar collapse?

The dollar has already lost 90% of its value, just in the last 40 years. The way things are going now, that's likely to accelerate. We may see another brief round of deflation, but accelerating inflation is the more likely path in the long term. Today's inflation is in the form of the things you buy, not in wages, which will continue to squeeze consumers.

When the dollar collapse does every cent I have in my savings account get wiped out and never to be redeemed?

Some banks fail almost every week (announced on Fridays on the FDIC website). Most depositors get most of their savings back, but usually only after some delay. When it happened in Argentina, between the time the banks closed their doors and when deposits were available again, the currency had lost something like 40% of its value. In a time of extreme crisis in the US, you can bet that any remaining repositories of wealth will be raided, one way or the other. Pension funds and retirement accounts, for example, already have a big target painted on them.

Does this mean everyone is a fool for having any substantial savings in cash and should be converting it all to gold and silver?

Cash has its place, and holding cash is different than holding money in a bank. There is risk with cash, and there's risk with metals. The most prudent path is probably some combination.

Will there be a civil war that outbreaks and riots in the streets?

It's not impossible. However, I feel civil war is unlikely until/unless the government starts actively, visibly killing its own citizens. Civil unrest, though, like the occupy movements, will almost certainly increase.

Will food become scarce?

I think there's a very good chance of that, yes. Probably not all foods at once, but select foods could easily become difficult to find, particularly in the event of supply-chain disruptions -- trucker strikes, fuel shortages, and the like.

One thing you didn't mention is gasoline prices. I expect them to continue to ratchet up-then-down-then-higher. As high prices slow the economy, prices will go down. Then as production peaks kick in again, prices go back up. Then the process repeats.

Another issue is the risk of holding debt. While inflation can help debtors, if the cost of the things you buy goes up fast enough without wages going up too, it can quickly soak up the income you're using to pay off debt, which makes default more likely. Defaulting on debt is likely to become increasingly difficult and problematic as time goes on. The nature of student loans, where you can use bankruptcy to escape them, is an example of probable future trends.
 
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Please try to be realistic as possible. Assuming Ron isn't elected, when do we think it will happen?

What will it look like?
Will everyone's stocks become immediately worthless?
Will the dollar collapse?
When the dollar collapse does every cent I have in my savings account get wiped out and never to be redeemed?
Does this mean everyone is a fool for having any substantial savings in cash and should be converting it all to gold and silver?
Will there be a civil war that outbreaks and riots in the streets?
Will food become scarce?
The crash is coming this decade - before 2020 - I would bet at the latest. I think it could start this year. There are a lot of contributing factors from what I've researched.

Right now we are in world wide deflation. Although China and India are growing, they are still dependent on others to buy their goods and keep the economy floating. The FED has tried several maneuvers to try and stave off deflation - low interest rates, buying securities, increasing the money supply and monetizing debt. None of this has worked and Bernanke has said the last thing he would do is devalue the currency. This could happen over night.

This will cause the price of commodities like oil, gold and silver to inflate while everything else collapses. Housing prices and the stock market will crash and deflation will kick in as people have no money to purchase anything other than day to day items.

Basically, the FED is creating another bubble - commodities and we are seeing the biggest transfer of wealth in history. When it's all over with, a very small group of people will own the majority of real estate, land, commodities, etc. We will basically be debt slaves or serfs working to support them while they do nothing.

As far as civil unrest goes, it's hard to say what people will do. I think it's likely we will see it though.

Food won't be scarce, but you won't be able to afford it. Having a garden and knowing how to hunt will give you a huge upper hand.
 
The Creature has a pretty frightening chapter about what the meltdown would look like. I haven't read that book in some time. I have a friend, who subsequently became a big Ron Paul supporter, return the book because that part was too frightening.
 
Government shut downs become longer and longer. Austerity measures will be implemented whether Ron Paul is elected or not. Ron Paul had a plan unlike where desperate politicos will become frozen in panic or do knee jerk reactions that do not make any sense. I personally do not see the mad max scenario. More like Soviet Union or Argentina style of collapse. The US could split up into separate countries trying to solve economic problems on their own with no guide from D.C.

The dollar does not really exist anymore. The Federal Reserve note will continue to be devalued. Other countries have a forced devaluation(recently Venezuela) to give an idea how it would occur. Bank Holidays. 3 old FRN for 1 new FRN.

There is less than a trillion FRN paper currency and coin actually created. The rest is digital. Take into consideration that most banks have less than 10% of cash reserves and even less in their vaults to exchange for digital currency. Small bills and coins were in high demand in Argentina during their collapse. No one will take credit or debit cards. Rare metals are the best hedge for protecting wealth but impractical for exchange for daily goods. Coins will become in high demand for exchange. Another plus with coins is in a forced devaluation they are still accepted at face value because of the costs of minting them.

There probably will be riots from people not receiving their entitlement checks.Instead of civil war more likely states will start to Balkanize for survival in response to a powerless and frozen Federal Government.
 
btw,while it is going to be an economic disaster,please be optimistic :because the technology and knowledge of humanity will not go away.people of the future will continue to live better than we do today. there will be ups and downs ,revolutions -bloody or otherwise,but i am optimistic about humanity.
marc faber the biggest gloom and doom pundit recently explained why it is important to remain optimistic (read the barrons roundtable where he predicts WW3 within the decade)
 
all stocks , no

there are always winners and losers

riots, they are already starting in Tibet; but riots will not be all over (think 1967-1968)
 
Been thinking about the potential of civil unrest during the collapse. The Great Depression experienced little violence. I used to think there would be a civil war, maybe even resulting in the U.S. splitting apart. However, looking at history, widespread violence doesn't seem likely.
 
Been thinking about the potential of civil unrest during the collapse. The Great Depression experienced little violence. I used to think there would be a civil war, maybe even resulting in the U.S. splitting apart. However, looking at history, widespread violence doesn't seem likely.

but the Civil war had draft riots in the North (but not the south even though conscription was introduced earlier in the south); there were also race riots in the 60s
 
Collapse is coming but the elitists are trying to control it.

- Riots
- Dollar devalued 40%: savings is the same but your purchasing power reduced
- New currency - Amero or World currency
- Unemployment 30%
- Stock market collapse, 401k wiped clean
- FEMA camps - country broken up into 8 sections - Patriot Act
- Food counters wiped clean
- Bank Holidays
- Staged govt attacks or false flags
- Marshall law
- Round up of guns

The govt knows this is coming and why they have passed the Patriot Act, Internet Kill Switch, NDAA, FEMA camps, etc.

Best to be out of a major city. Store some food. Have guns and bullets for protection needed. I live right next to an Air Force base so there will be some type of order in my small city of 65K. A coworker has a cabin to go to in WV that is completely off the grid.
 
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Worst case scenario.

It wouldnt happen just to America. It would be global.

P.s.
You are running for office.....If your opponents follow you on here they could use this :cool: (paranoia)


To original question: Look at history. French revolution, Great depression, World wars.... all mixed in one. Any new global crisis is more dangereous than previous ones because of mankind improvement in weapons and science.
 
Please try to be realistic as possible. Assuming Ron isn't elected, when do we think it will happen?

What will it look like?
Will everyone's stocks become immediately worthless?
Will the dollar collapse?
When the dollar collapse does every cent I have in my savings account get wiped out and never to be redeemed?
Does this mean everyone is a fool for having any substantial savings in cash and should be converting it all to gold and silver?
Will there be a civil war that outbreaks and riots in the streets?
Will food become scarce?

I think before 2020. Don't believe anyone who says there might be deflation. There won't be - maybe a few percentage points, at most. Inflation is nearly inevitable.

Some stocks will not become worthless. Most will increase. They likely won't increase in value to keep up with inflation, though.

Yes, the dollar will become worthless.

People are fools for holding cash, but they don't necessarily need gold and silver. Anything that will be in demand and is store-able will be fine. Guns, ammo, canned food, land, fuel, etc.

Civil war is unlikely with inadequate supplies of food and fuel. Expect some states to secede and form their own currency. Those states will recover the fastest. Imported goods will be the first to disappear, as foreigners will begin refusing dollars before Americans abandon them. That means a limited supply of oil and gasoline and imported food. Riots are probable.

Food will become scarce, but some areas will survive, without much trouble. Once foreigners start refusing the dollar, and fuel and imported food become hard to come by, the domestic food supply may not be able to be adequately distributed. Once food starts becoming scarce, people will abandon the cities. They'll be able to travel only a couple hundred miles, at best, before fuel becomes scarce, too. It's probably not a good idea to be in their path.

Ludwig Von Mises said:
This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against ‘real’ goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.
 
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On the bright side, I've heard rumors that there will be plenty of gruel in the FEMA camp commissaries.

Doubts.
Gruel was made from Hemp Seed.

expect something of the more soylent variety.
 
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