Explain the coming collapse to me

[GunnyFreedom]

What do you think the likelihood of a dollar collapse and SHTF scenario happening is?

I couldn't begin to put numbers on it. I think it's likely enough to hedge my bets and buy craptons of canned food and long term storage food, as well as storing up plenty of precious metals like copper brass and lead. I'm looking at this like a probability bell curve, with a collapse/shtf in the 2nd confidence interval. If I had to shut my eyes and toss a dart I'd guess 5%-10% for a hard-core SHTF, 15%-20% for a soft-core SHTF, maybe 40% for a 'serious depression' and approaching 50% for a dollar collapse of some form.

 

[Athan]

I think the worst case scenarios Gunny are not as likely as some may believe here. Biggest reason I feel this way is because of a key element that is unique to our situation in the U.S. Ron Paul, Ron Paul supporters, and our network. Let's not kid ourselves. A LOT Of us have:

1. Gold of some holding.
2. Silver on hand in likely more plentiful numbers.
3. Guns.
4. Ammo.
5. Knowledge of what is coming.
6. Ron Paul and fellow supporters guidance on how to deal with it.
7. Our "political" network. We know local supporters and are pretty tight with one another.
8. We've had time.

I think we need to develop a guild like structure beyond just political strength and turn into more of a physical economic network. Say I have access to wind water pumps with a storage reservoir, chickens, land guns, ammo, (I live in a rural area, ok?) silver, gold, and tools. I'm not going to turn down my Ron Paul buddies and family if they are in need. I'll turn others away, but I'm not going to say "Hey Denny, sorry bud, but go somewhere else". By all means him, his family, and his Ron Paul friends are welcomed and only asked to help out. We need to develop our organization to be more than just a political group and be a bit more of a jack of all trades network.

Bartering, work, trade, travel, security, and etc. If for some reason we can't get Ron elected, we need to make our organization a bit more malleable and physically structured. Let the gop, democrats, and their supporters squabble amongst themselves. We are more than just waiting victims. We knew what was coming and we tried to stop it.

 

[Gary4Liberty]

I always imagined it would start something like this. The president comes on tv in the morning for an announcement. He says something liike. "Due to the national debt of our country and the inreasing economic weakness in the EU, we must temporarily adopt a universal currency to get us through this difficult time. This is just temporary. As a nation in the world we must do our part to help the world be the great world that it once was.

 

[Anti Federalist]

"Just In Time Logistics" dries up and the supermarket shelves go bare.

This is the single most important point to take away from any discussion of this.

The entire "global market" illusion is based on "just in time" logistics, that is as frail as a gossamer thread.

There are a million disruptions that could cause this to break down.

Yet another reason why I oppose globalized "free trade".

 

[wgadget]

Europe may be giving us a hint. This was in today's Lew Rockwell blog, my all-time favorite by far.

http://lewrockwell.com/rep3/europe-plunging-into-depression.html

Note the Baltic Dry Index has fallen 61% since October!

 

[Dsylexic]

This is the single most important point to take away from any discussion of this.

The entire "global market" illusion is based on "just in time" logistics, that is as frail as a gossamer thread.

There are a million disruptions that could cause this to break down.

Yet another reason why I oppose globalized "free trade".

i disagree. the intricate 'gosammer thread' is very well co-ordinated by prices and profits and losses.
it is robust to a large extent.ofcourse management types want it optimized.i dont accept retail/food is a TBTF type business.
million disruptions dont mean,million entities will just roll over and die,prices will tell people what to do.ofcourse food will end up costlier in a financial collapse,but that is not because of the intricate global trade.

 

[Pericles]

This is the single most important point to take away from any discussion of this.

The entire "global market" illusion is based on "just in time" logistics, that is as frail as a gossamer thread.

There are a million disruptions that could cause this to break down.

Yet another reason why I oppose globalized "free trade".

This is why air travel and ports were re-opened within a week after 9/11. Long before the intended "security" measures could be put in place.

 

[raystone]

Don't believe anyone who says there might be deflation.

I used to think the same thing. Then, I was turned onto the fact there's a quadrillion dollar credit bubble out there just starting to deflate. Our economy has been running on that, and it's about to end.

Automatic Earth argues convincingly, once the Euro crashes, we'll actually see the U.S. dollar strengthen for some time, before eventually crashing.

Perhaps the best description of the combination of deflation and inflation we can expect comes from Kyle Bass:

"I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...fund-to-hold-gold-hedge-as-assets-shrink.html

 

[raystone]

Different populations. People were still by the large self reliant in those days. It was a largely independent farming culture that could sustain families, locales and communities if even just mere subsistence farming.

Today? No. Within weeks the food supply is wiped and 90% of the population have NO CLUE what to do...

Maybe you're right. Although it just occurred to me of the 200M-300M firearms in the U.S, 95%? are owned by conservative people with a sense of right and wrong, self sufficiency, and moral character. In other words, the firearm owners will not be the side committing the pillaging. It will be a rather shortlived zombie army.

 

[Philhelm]

I think the worst case scenarios Gunny are not as likely as some may believe here. Biggest reason I feel this way is because of a key element that is unique to our situation in the U.S. Ron Paul, Ron Paul supporters, and our network. Let's not kid ourselves. A LOT Of us have:

1. Gold of some holding.
2. Silver on hand in likely more plentiful numbers.
3. Guns.
4. Ammo.
5. Knowledge of what is coming.
6. Ron Paul and fellow supporters guidance on how to deal with it.
7. Our "political" network. We know local supporters and are pretty tight with one another.
8. We've had time.

I think we need to develop a guild like structure beyond just political strength and turn into more of a physical economic network. Say I have access to wind water pumps with a storage reservoir, chickens, land guns, ammo, (I live in a rural area, ok?) silver, gold, and tools. I'm not going to turn down my Ron Paul buddies and family if they are in need. I'll turn others away, but I'm not going to say "Hey Denny, sorry bud, but go somewhere else". By all means him, his family, and his Ron Paul friends are welcomed and only asked to help out. We need to develop our organization to be more than just a political group and be a bit more of a jack of all trades network.

Bartering, work, trade, travel, security, and etc. If for some reason we can't get Ron elected, we need to make our organization a bit more malleable and physically structured. Let the gop, democrats, and their supporters squabble amongst themselves. We are more than just waiting victims. We knew what was coming and we tried to stop it.

I wouldn't turn away the Ron Paul folks either. For those that vote Ron Paul with me shall be my brothers.

 

[PeacePlan]

Here is about as simple of an explanation that I can give. Paper dollars are worthless as no one wants them. Now imagine what it may be like to survive and get by.

 

[rambone]

We are in the Weimar Republic boys. 1921 Germany.

The currency is going to inflate to obscene levels.

Things will be chaotic and people will demand a solution.

We will then be ready for a dictator.

 

[Johnny Appleseed]

not even gold and silver will save your ass...both are too heavy to run with...the greatest commodity will be your survival skills...the way it was intended.

 

[enoch150]

I used to think the same thing. Then, I was turned onto the fact there's a quadrillion dollar credit bubble out there just starting to deflate. Our economy has been running on that, and it's about to end.

Automatic Earth argues convincingly, once the Euro crashes, we'll actually see the U.S. dollar strengthen for some time, before eventually crashing.

Perhaps the best description of the combination of deflation and inflation we can expect comes from Kyle Bass:

"I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...fund-to-hold-gold-hedge-as-assets-shrink.html

I'm no expert on derivatives, but from what I've read, many of those quadrillion dollars in contracts cancel each other out.

Assume there's 2% deflation. The Fed doesn't want deflation. They print up another trillion or two. Or three. There isn't a practical limit to how much they can create. The banks sit on the money - they leave it on deposit at the Fed because there are to few good credit risks. So there's another 2% deflation. Unemployment starts rising again, housing and stock prices are dropping. The people are angry. Congress acts. What does Congress do? First they try bailouts. Then they force the banks to make loans. Lots and lots of them, to everyone who applies. Then the fractional reserve process kicks in. Inflation takes off. The Fed tries to retract the money, but it's to late. They're always to late.

You'll know when to bug out when the trade deficit turns to a trade surplus. It will mean the world is rejecting dollars. Most of the US, and even a good many on this board will celebrate when that happens. I'll be preparing for the worst.

 

[Anti Federalist]

i disagree. the intricate 'gosammer thread' is very well co-ordinated by prices and profits and losses.
it is robust to a large extent.ofcourse management types want it optimized.i dont accept retail/food is a TBTF type business.
million disruptions dont mean,million entities will just roll over and die,prices will tell people what to do.ofcourse food will end up costlier in a financial collapse,but that is not because of the intricate global trade.

A disruption of 15 percent in worldwide petroluem supplies would shut the whole thing down in 72 hours.

 

[Anti Federalist]

This is why air travel and ports were re-opened within a week after 9/11. Long before the intended "security" measures could be put in place.

+rep

 

[thoughtomator]

You'll know when to bug out when the trade deficit turns to a trade surplus. It will mean the world is rejecting dollars. Most of the US, and even a good many on this board will celebrate when that happens. I'll be preparing for the worst.

It'll depend on how that happens. If it happens due to the US getting its act together that's a good thing.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

i disagree. the intricate 'gosammer thread' is very well co-ordinated by prices and profits and losses.
it is robust to a large extent.ofcourse management types want it optimized.i dont accept retail/food is a TBTF type business.
million disruptions dont mean,million entities will just roll over and die,prices will tell people what to do.ofcourse food will end up costlier in a financial collapse,but that is not because of the intricate global trade.

JIT Logistics is anything but robust. A gas crunch, a trucker's strike, an LOC crisis, a currency crisis in either direction, any number of things could disrupt JIT logistics, and any disruption whatsoever leads to immediate supply failures. Depending on the critical nature of those particular supplies that could lead to either mild annoyance or going postal. It's wholly unpredictable because of the complex and highly orchestrated nature of the JIT logistic system.

 

[XTreat]

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