Dr. Paul's Realistic Chances?

[OutsiderJoe]

I will tell you folks right off the bat that I'm a John McCain supporter. I was in 2000 and I am now. However, I'm trying fairly hard to be open-minded about Dr. Paul, given that I have fiscally conservative and socially moderate-to-liberal views (i.e., government, leave me and mine alone). So please do not respond to this post with accusations of "Troll" or insults of my preferred candidate or declarations that with my views being of such a character I'm backing the wrong man (although I am, of course, inviting these types of responses by alluding to them beforehand).

To put it as neutrally and non-judgmentally as possible: do you folks believe that Ron Paul will win the Republican nomination? Do you believe that Ron Paul can win the Republican nomination? At this point in time, it appears to me as an outsider that Ron Paul's chances are the least of the four remaining candidates and that even though he's still got to have a large warchest (freedomchest?), I'm not sure that he's shown that -- whether his fault of not -- he can break through to achieve anything more than an at-most 10% showing in major primaries.

I'm just curious as to how you dispassionately view your chances in this election cycle.

As for me, I think Dr. Paul is a fundamentally honest, intelligent, and good man. Nonetheless, in this day of soundbite politics and a demagogue'd electorate, Ron Paul doesn't appear to be able to get any traction with the broaded electorate. So does he have a chance?

(Oh, and for the record, while this is my first post, I've been reading the message board for a while.)

 

[JPFromTally]

I hate to say this but:

If McCain wins then it's a lock for Hillary to be president. There is no way the US will vote for a pro-war president with the economy in bad shape.

They will look at McCain and his positions and say "he's very similar to the Democrats but he wants to keep fighting wars. Hillary says she's against the war this week so I'll vote for her."

In return we will have socialist programs shoved down our throats.

Here's the thing that bugs me about the Iraq war. It wasn't generals who designed and cheerleaded this war. It was little twerps (the kinds you picked on high school) like Wolfowitz, Pearle, David Frum, Bill Kristol, Podhoretz, etc. It's almost like Trump letting his bean-counters to design a hostile takeover of a company.

 

[Shinerxx]

I believe Ron Paul has the best chance of becoming the republican nominee. Here is my reasoning:

1): Popular vote in primaries do not elect nominees. Delegates elect the nominee. We are working harder than any other campaign to elect delegates that support Ron Paul. We also have delegates currently pledged to opponents when in a brokered convention will be released to vote for Ron Paul. We are betting the farm on a brokered convention and should one occur Ron Paul will most likely walk away with the nomination.

2): 70% of the people in our country want to end the War in Iraq. True most are Democrats however how do you expect a pro-war republican candidate to win in the general election. It is not going to happen. McCain/Romney will waltz into a general election slaughter by Hillary/Obama. A McCain/Romney nomination is handing the Whitehouse to the democrats on a silver platter. At least make them work for it.

3): Our economy is going down in flames and by the general election it will be even worse. The people will be looking for true answers and not empty promises. Dr. Paul delivers on the economy. That fact is why two of the most influential financialists are backing Ron Paul's campaign; Don Luskin and Peter Schiff.

 

[FortWorth38]

Hi Joe

Welcome to the Forums....

I get the feeling that by you taking the first step by your post(which can be scary) that you are wanting something to change in Our Country's Future.

Ron Paul is the real Deal. I have 2 Questions for You..OK

1st Question
What are the 3 most important things that you value as a US CITIZEN???

2nd Question
Why are you going to vote
???

 

[Rob]

Hello friend,

Like yourself, I was a McCain supporter in 2000, but now as you can see I support Ron Paul. I will tell that we have a very good chance if we can prevent any other candidate from getting an absolute majority. The National Convention then becomes brokered, at which point the delegates are free to vote for whomever they wish. What you haven't been hearing is that we're doing VERY well in getting our delegates to the convention. It's realistically possible we'll have enough by the time of the convention to win.

Since you're self-described as fiscally conservative and socially moderate, It seems quite likely Dr. Paul may actually support more of your own views than Senator McCain. Have you ever taken a political quiz that shows you which candidate's views are in closest alignment to yours?

 

[hueylong]

McCain is mentally unstable. And if he is nominated, our next President will be Hillary Clinton.

 

[ronpaulyourmom]

I feel that Ron Paul has little or no chance of getting the republican nomination. I think he will have a legacy that will continue, and I hope that he runs Independent. I will vote for him no matter what.

 

[RobS]

What chance of winning did McCain have 4 months ago? Everybody said he was dead in the water.

 

[mavtek]

The question for you Joe. Will Ron Paul allow John McCain to win the General if he is the nominee? Considering his revenge and kill attitude toward Foreign Policy I'd say no. A recent Rasmussen report showed that if Ron Paul ran 3rd party he'd get 11% of the Republican vote, assuring Mr. McCain a defeat. Please keep that in mind while you support John McCain.

 

[Janet0116]

Hi and welcome. I loved McCain in 2000. Sadly, that man no longer exists. If you can't see that now, you will.

For me, it personally does not matter if Dr. Paul can win the nomination or not, the primaries are a chance to vote your principles/conscience. I can vote 'against' the other guy in November. Also important to note, this so-called revolution we have going on is much bigger than the Presidency.

However, to answer your question, yes he does have a chance, due to the reasons others have listed (delegates baby, it's all about the delegates)

 

[nullvalu]

Our fight has, and never will be about his chances to win the election. We've always laughed off the comments "he doesn't stand a chance". Yes, of course we want Ron Paul to win the nomination. We are all hopeful of such, and that is why we started and take part in this grassroots campaign. Can you say that John McCain will win the primary? No. It's about supporting the candidate you feel most comfortable with (and likely in most of our cases, the only candidate) and helping him to get elected. We don't live & die by polls and know there's a lot still in the air with Super Tuesday, and collecting delegates.

Personally, at the start of this, I would have given him a 1 in 11 chance to win the election. Now, I give him a 1 in 4 chance to win the nomination. How's that?

 

[Briggsy]

The fact that you are here would lead me to believe that YES he does have a chance. I think that the longer he sticks around, the higher that 10% will become. If he can pull out a few wins during super tuesday, the media will have to give him more attention. And then all those voters out there that may support Mcain, Romney or Huckabee, who unlike you, are not doing research on the net, will finally get a real and honest dose of exactly what Dr Paul is all about. The sparse good media coverage is 100% at fault for his message (and ours) not getting the traction it could and should. Through our grassroots efforts, we will win him a few primaries in super tuesday, and in fact may have already gotten him a win in Lousiana, the verdict is still out on that one.

The bottom line is that based on your comments, it sounds like you actually think that Ron Paul is the best candidate, but you may have focused your support to McCain because you think he has a good chance of winning. This has been said on here before, but I think it is important to point out again. The founding Fathers assumed people would vote based on who they thought would be the best for the country, not based on who they thought could win. This dynamic would have confounded the Founding Fathers and they probably would have questioned thier ideas about freedom, liberty and democracy. If someone with more "power" than the individual, can influence the individual, outside of thier stance on the issues, then our system is fundamentally broken. It leaves room for those in power to influence the right people to keep their power right where it is.

Let me ask you this, If Mcain was polling at 20% and Ron Paul was polling at 35% would you still support McCain? Again I know this is hypothetical at this point, but try to envision it and answer accordingly. I look back at how many times I have heard people complain about politics, politicians, The govt, and how they wished someone with honesty and integrity would run for office. I look back at how many times I heard people complain about how the gov't should butt out and stop thier overtaxing and overspending ways. Then we get Ron Paul who answers thier calls, almost as if the Universe Produced him just to give them what they had been asking for for so long, and they duck thier heads in the sand and continue to support the people who they complain about day and night.

The fact is that many people fear change. They don't like the way things are now, but they have adjusted to them and actually fear the premise of government not taking care of people. They have forgotten how to take care of themselves and have lost most of thier personal responsibility. This is fairly evident if we look at the trend that has been growing over the last 20 years with regard to tort lawsuits. People will file suit at the drop of the hat these days, because it is always someone else at fault for thier woes.

I am not sure if the situation is bad enough yet for people to make that leap back to personal responsibility and small government, but soon, the wieght and power of the federal government will be too much for anyone to bear. Our revolution will continue to grow, the only uncertain thing about it is the timetable.

 

[emilysdad]

He has a chance if intellegent folks like you wake up and face reality.

In May 07 there were 11 GOP candidates. At that time, Ron was classified as a nut, wakco, fringe, radical with no chance of success. Go back and watch the first couple debates. Kinda strange there are now only 4. Even more absurd is the fact the other three are now parroting Ron's message of which he was classified a nut, wacko, fringe and radical. The difference is Ron can back up every one of those positions based on his past and what he has done, the others can't.

I find it funny based on a few conversations I had today, that folks like you don't seem to understand that what you saw last night was the 2 leading GOP candidates for President were actually calling each other out. They have been accusing each other of being liberals for 2 weeks. Why can't you see that? Based on what they have DONE and not what they SAY, they are both leberals and both liars. Unfortunately, apathetic Americans unwilling to research and form their own opinions will continue to believe everything the media tells them. I had a conversation with my brother last night who in May supporter Rudy, in July supporter Gincrich or Thompson whichever entered the race and last night told me he supports Mitt. MITT!!!! My brother is one who plays into the liberal/conservative argument and hates liberals. How ironic, he will vote for a RINO. He blasted Ron with regurgitated rhetoric. I asked him how many times he has gone to Ron's website. He said he hasn't. I asked him how many policy statements and speeches of Ron's he has read, again he said none. He proved my point. His opinion of Ron is based on the opinions of others and don't belong to him.

I susupect most people will continue with the pattern of voting for the lessor of two evils to simply save the party. How sad. How un American.

If you want to vote for the lessor of two evils, just know you are still voting for evil.

Yes, Ron has a chance, a good one at that, but only if Americans wake up from their slumber. Otherwise, it will be more of the same.

BTW, who do you think is the most conservative candidate based on this:

h ttp://www.digg.com/2008_us_elections/Total_Proposed_Spending_for_All_2008_Candidates

My friend, (lol), we need intellegent people like you to wake up and exercise your ability to engage in critical thought. I enjoy discussing politics with folks and I speak with hundreds of people each week, but I will not debate "rhetoric" when "facts" are available.

See ya in November.

 

[ckhagen]

Do I believe that he will win the nomination... unless the American people start sitting down and assessing the real situation we're in, not necessarily. Apparently people aren't ready to deal with the truth. Sad, but true.

Do I think he can win it... yes, I do. If we can find a way to spread this message in layman's terms (some of this stuff is just so over people's heads), it will "click" and the emergent nature of the needs for solutions to these problems will spread like a wildfire.

This has so little to do with a man. It has everything to do with the movement. We've just so happened to find a man that supports the message and has an impeccable record to earn our trust.

Right now, 10% of Americans are fed up enough to recognize that these social divisive issues (abortion and "programs" for example) are nothing compared to the impending monetary collapse.

We have no social battles to fight when we've lost our freedom and sovereignty. None of that matters if we owe our lives to a central bank and foreign nations. They call the shots then, not us.

Personally, Sen. McCain scares the hell out of me. I would bet my last dollar that his term would include draft reinstatement (including women, into civil service) and war with Iran. The idea of my husband having to fight in a war that I do not for one second think is necessary or honorable, is horrifying to me. Besides, how will we pay for it?

 

[Drknows]

Ron Paul already won his message is spreading. This is a movement!

If your trying to get a feel on what we plan to do if Ron Paul does not win the small prize of a nomination.

Well most of us plan on writing him in. Some plan to switch parties and vote against the neocons in the general. BUT they will come back and help us get Ron Paul type republicans in office.

Let me make this very clear. We will not stop or give up!

And the best of luck to you!

 

[MrAustin]

Welcome!

Thanks for you post - you raise some great qustions... From a certain perspective, it might seem like it's not possible for Ron Paul to win the nomination.

Nationally he has never polled above 10%. He has not won a single state cacus or primary yet. He is not an eloquent speaker - especially in tense situations - and his voice can get whiny. He's "old" (he is in the same boat with McCain though)

BUT - and please think about this - what does he have going against him other than that?

Now here are some reasons that Ron Paul IS electable, and CAN win this Election:

1 - He has WON more than half of the straw polls conducted all over the nation. Far more than any other candidate.

2 - He has come in 2nd in the Nevada and Louisiana Caucuses.

3 - He is the only candidate who has raised more money each quarter than the previous quarter, raising almost 20Million in the 4th quarter. (Keep in mind these are small donations - about $100 average per donor.)

4 - He IS honest, and CONSISTENTLY acts (and votes) like a true consevative.

5 - Ronald Regan Campaigned for him.

6 - He has experience in the Military and Health Care, is an expert on econimics, knows the constitutuion that this country is supposed to follow, and has an impecable 30 year voting record.

7- He recieves more donations from members of the military than any other candidate - Republican or Democart.

8 - Has a very active grassroots campaign made up completely of volunteers.

9 - His supporters don;t bounce around. They stick!

10 - Most of the nation has still not even heard of Ron Paul! (Think about that one a little as well.)


Ron Paul is electable. We the people of this country just need to elect him.

Please keep learning about Dr. Paul and all that he stands for. I'm sure that if you do, you will come to see why this election is so very important, and why Dr. Paul is who we as a nation NEED right now in the whitehouse.

I myself used to support Romney, and actually campainged for him for a while...until - like you - I started doing a little more reading on Ron Paul.

Hope this helps! Sorry for the length...

 

[OutsiderJoe]

I apologize for the disjointedness of this response. (I'm trying to type a little as I'm working.)

First, McCain is not mentally unstable. (Along this point, I have to say that I take great issue with the insinuations that he's a traitor or not a war hero. I don't want to rehash that fight, but I have nothing but the greatest respect for the man -- although I wasn't pleased with his nastiness last night). And it's pretty clear to me, although God knows my wife will testify that I've been wrong before, that in the eventuality of a Hillary nomination, McCain is able to triangulate support in the middle. Against Obama, I'm less confident (and disheartened at the idea of having my taxes raised, of course).

I do believe -- and here is likely where you and I will part ways, ultimately -- that it is more important for the person you believe will be the best President than the person you believe best represents your views. So, while I disagree with John McCain on abortion (I'm moderate-to-pro-choice) and gay rights (I'm pro-gay marriage) and immigration (I'm for securing the borders and not granting special permissions), I believe John McCain has the character to be a great President. I'm sure many of you disagree. I respect that. (Oh, and as a side note, I've taken the quizzes and, yes, my views are closest to Dr. Paul's views.)

In terms of chances to win, though, I just don't see Dr. Paul getting the nomination in a brokered convention. He's not a compromise candidate for anyone. Convince me otherwise.

(Also, can someone point me to the RNC regulation that dictates that a brokered convention candidate must have participated in the primaries? I'm not sure if this is the case, and if it's not, don't be surprised to see a brand new face emerge...).

Joe

P.S. For what it's worth, I'm an attorney and aspiring politician myself. A life-long Republican, I feel that the party's leaving me as it drifts towards the social conservative right and away from the fiscal conservative right. Thank you very much, George W. Bush.

 

[AisA1787]

If I were betting money on Ron Paul to win, I would be concerned. I'm not. Despite what the media wants you to believe, this isn't a horse race. I am an American who is concerned about the direction my country is going, and I see Ron Paul as the only presidential candidate who can get us back on the right track. Whether or not I think he will win isn't even an issue with me.

By the way, if you're fiscally conservative you might want to know that Ron Paul is the only candidate left in the race who proposes a net spending decrease:

National Taxpayers Union: Only Ron Paul Would Cut Spending

http://ronpaul2008.typepad.com/ron_paul_2008/2008/01/national-taxpay.html

NTU Report: Other Republicans would increase spending by billions

According to a report released Tuesday by the National Taxpayers Union, Texas Congressman Ron Paul is the only remaining presidential candidate who proposes net spending cuts.

According to the report, Congressman Paul’s proposals would cut government spending by over $150 billion, a conservative estimate of the spending reductions Dr. Paul has proposed. The report concludes that the other remaining Republican candidates, Mitt Romney, John McCain and Mike Huckabee, have proposed spending increases of $19.5 billion, $6.9 billion and $54 billion respectively.

“It should come as no surprise that when you crunch the numbers Ron Paul is the only Republican who would actually shrink the size and cost of the federal government,” said Ron Paul campaign economic advisor Don Luskin. “Romney, McCain and Huckabee don’t hold a candle to Ron Paul – the only true fiscal conservative running for President.”

In ten terms in Congress, Ron Paul has never voted for a tax increase or for an unbalanced budget.

For more information, visit our Daily Dose Campaign HQ Blog

 

[Mortikhi]

I will tell you folks right off the bat that I'm a John McCain supporter. I was in 2000 and I am now. However, I'm trying fairly hard to be open-minded about Dr. Paul, given that I have fiscally conservative and socially moderate-to-liberal views (i.e., government, leave me and mine alone). So please do not respond to this post with accusations of "Troll" or insults of my preferred candidate or declarations that with my views being of such a character I'm backing the wrong man (although I am, of course, inviting these types of responses by alluding to them beforehand).

To put it as neutrally and non-judgmentally as possible: do you folks believe that Ron Paul will win the Republican nomination? Do you believe that Ron Paul can win the Republican nomination? At this point in time, it appears to me as an outsider that Ron Paul's chances are the least of the four remaining candidates and that even though he's still got to have a large warchest (freedomchest?), I'm not sure that he's shown that -- whether his fault of not -- he can break through to achieve anything more than an at-most 10% showing in major primaries.

I'm just curious as to how you dispassionately view your chances in this election cycle.

As for me, I think Dr. Paul is a fundamentally honest, intelligent, and good man. Nonetheless, in this day of soundbite politics and a demagogue'd electorate, Ron Paul doesn't appear to be able to get any traction with the broaded electorate. So does he have a chance?

(Oh, and for the record, while this is my first post, I've been reading the message board for a while.)

I hate to tell ya buddy, but McCain isn't going to win. Noone that is for Ron Paul would be for John McCain. That means he won't have the votes to go to the Whitehouse.

It looks like we all lose

 

[jdmyprez_deo_vindice]

no

Ron Paul cannot win the nomination but we sure as hell can.