Dr. Paul's Realistic Chances?

[redchina]

Don't vote for who you think will win. Vote for who you WANT to win.

 

[mavtek]

Joe, we are the Delegates, there's the news for you, run with it.

 

[Cleaner44]

I will answer your inquirey very directly. Ron Paul most definetly has a chance. He is 1 of only 6 candidates still in the race and the election is not until Nov. It will be tough, as it will be for any candidate. We had better hope he does get elected or we are all in some deep shit.

I am sure you realize that Ron Paul is the only candidate with an understanding of the real problems our country is facing economically. Without money, everything else stops. McCain can threaten the whole world with military action but without the money to buy bullets, his threats will be idle.

 

[JenaS62]

I too am a fiscal conservative first and then a social liberal 2nd. The top 3 issues to me this election year are in order, 1-economy, 2-war in Iraq, 3 - illegal immigration. In my mind, there is no other candidate who is strong on these issues and with whom I agree, other than Ron Paul. I am a republican and I voted for George Bush in 2004 but I will not support any GOP candidates in the general election except for Ron Paul. In addition - I will not support either of the Dem candidates. If Ron Paul does not win the GOP nomination, I will write him in.

 

[qwerty]

I will tell you folks right off the bat that I'm a John McCain supporter. I was in 2000 and I am now. However, I'm trying fairly hard to be open-minded about Dr. Paul, given that I have fiscally conservative and socially moderate-to-liberal views (i.e., government, leave me and mine alone). So please do not respond to this post with accusations of "Troll" or insults of my preferred candidate or declarations that with my views being of such a character I'm backing the wrong man (although I am, of course, inviting these types of responses by alluding to them beforehand).

To put it as neutrally and non-judgmentally as possible: do you folks believe that Ron Paul will win the Republican nomination? Do you believe that Ron Paul can win the Republican nomination? At this point in time, it appears to me as an outsider that Ron Paul's chances are the least of the four remaining candidates and that even though he's still got to have a large warchest (freedomchest?), I'm not sure that he's shown that -- whether his fault of not -- he can break through to achieve anything more than an at-most 10% showing in major primaries.

I'm just curious as to how you dispassionately view your chances in this election cycle.

As for me, I think Dr. Paul is a fundamentally honest, intelligent, and good man. Nonetheless, in this day of soundbite politics and a demagogue'd electorate, Ron Paul doesn't appear to be able to get any traction with the broaded electorate. So does he have a chance?

(Oh, and for the record, while this is my first post, I've been reading the message board for a while.)

Pat Buchanan on the John McCain Platform


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9Dd-yg2A4E

 

[Drknows]

Id rather vote for a winner and lose than vote for a loser and win.

This is a movement not something we plan on walking away from if Ron Paul loses a nomination to some neocons.

We do not plan on supporting any other republican candidate. Its Ron Paul or Nobody for most of us. Some plan on switching parties and voting against your nominee but they wont leave this movement.

 

[AisA1787]

I believe John McCain has the character to be a great President. I'm sure many of you disagree. I respect that.

Joe, did you watch the debate last night?

Anyone who would deliberately misquote a fellow Republican, and then get into an extended semantic argument about who said what when, is simply a childish egotist and does not have the character to be a great president. Unlike many people here, I don't believe McCain is "mentally unstable." However, I do believe his character is very poor and he doesn't have any business holding the highest office in our land.

 

[Elwar]

McCain has 0% chance of being our next president.

How many Giuliani supporters have you heard say "If Rudy doesn't win the nomination I'm writing his name in", how many Romney supporters have said "If Romney doesn't win the nomination I'm not sure who I'll vote for, maybe the Democrat just because of the treatment he's gotten".

How many Ron Paul supporters have I heard say this, or something similar? I'd say about 90%, and several polls have reflected just that.

So, when it comes down to a close race between Democrat and Republican in November, will a Republican be able to win with that 90% of Ron Paul supporters writing his name in? When we see the exact same person when we look at McCain and Clinton do you think we'll be swayed to support the lesser of two evils?

You say you want small government? Then you only have one chance. Ron Paul or nobody.

When you go to the voting booth just remember this.

It's Ron Paul or Hillary Clinton. The sooner people realize this the sooner we can start raising money for Ron Paul's general election run.

 

[Rob]

I apologize for the disjointedness of this response. (I'm trying to type a little as I'm working.)

First, McCain is not mentally unstable. (Along this point, I have to say that I take great issue with the insinuations that he's a traitor or not a war hero. I don't want to rehash that fight, but I have nothing but the greatest respect for the man -- although I wasn't pleased with his nastiness last night). And it's pretty clear to me, although God knows my wife will testify that I've been wrong before, that in the eventuality of a Hillary nomination, McCain is able to triangulate support in the middle. Against Obama, I'm less confident (and disheartened at the idea of having my taxes raised, of course).

I do believe -- and here is likely where you and I will part ways, ultimately -- that it is more important for the person you believe will be the best President than the person you believe best represents your views. So, while I disagree with John McCain on abortion (I'm moderate-to-pro-choice) and gay rights (I'm pro-gay marriage) and immigration (I'm for securing the borders and not granting special permissions), I believe John McCain has the character to be a great President. I'm sure many of you disagree. I respect that. (Oh, and as a side note, I've taken the quizzes and, yes, my views are closest to Dr. Paul's views.)

In terms of chances to win, though, I just don't see Dr. Paul getting the nomination in a brokered convention. He's not a compromise candidate for anyone. Convince me otherwise.

(Also, can someone point me to the RNC regulation that dictates that a brokered convention candidate must have participated in the primaries? I'm not sure if this is the case, and if it's not, don't be surprised to see a brand new face emerge...).

Joe

P.S. For what it's worth, I'm an attorney and aspiring politician myself. A life-long Republican, I feel that the party's leaving me as it drifts towards the social conservative right and away from the fiscal conservative right. Thank you very much, George W. Bush.

Some of the delegates that bound for McCain or Romney in the first round are actually Ron Paul supporters who will vote for Paul in a brokered convention. Even at the lower levels of the campaign staff we don't know the exact number of who is a Ron Paul supporter and a delegate nationally, but they are more than you would think, certainly much more than our national polling indicates. We may not have to make any compromises, it's quite plausible we'll be able to win outright in a brokered convention.

I actually agree with you about voting for the best leader, and that is why I'm supporting Ron Paul. What concerns do you have about Congressman Paul's qualifications?

 

[evadmurd]

I believe Ron Paul has a great chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee. That said, I don't think he has much of a chance at all to become the republican nominee. That's the sad reality of it.

Your boy appears to have the media and GOP behind him. Unfortunately, it's a losing ticket is my opinion, and it will not get my vote.

 

[Todd]

All I will say is this isn't simply about one man and one presidential election. Win or lose this election..this thing is alot bigger than Dr. Paul and will seep into the Republican party and political spectrum for many years to come. It's already started in numerous congressional runs. How many people do you know that are running "John McCain" congressional runs? Well there's a whole lot of them labeled "Ron Paul".
I was part of the Buchanan brigade nearly 20 years ago...so I know the system is blatantly against those who resort to Ideas and don't stoop to mere platitudes (Ron Paul as "Hitler" - McCain) and establishment contacts (Media Darling). That's not the type of world I want. If you watched the debate last night it's evident that the Romney's and McCain's want the pie all to themselves or they would come out against clandestine methods of bias and censorship in these debates that isn't easily recognizable by the general public. The way Paul and Huck were treated is deplorable. You see...McCain is only a "maverick" cause he's tough talking, but a moderate conservative can easily become a Media darling for being a Social Progressive. The Media eats that crap up. Huck found out how it works a bit too late last night. The system for elections has got to change in this country. So if McCain is your man then I will respect that. Don't have to like it....I won't label you troll because it accomplishes absoulutely nothing. You'll find one big difference from McCain's forum and ours.....You would have already been banned had you been infiltrating McCain's world. The fact that Ron Paul crowd allows trolls (as long as they aren't complete morons) distinguishes them from everyone else.

Yes he can win and yes he can make it a living hell for McCain if he were to run 3rd party, and for the first time in my life I will write him in if it comes to that. An I am a 20 year Reagan conservative who knows what the definition of conservative means. There haven't been any in a long time.

 

[Dan Klaus]

Hey Outsider Joe,
Thanks for posting and the question...the delegate process is quite peculiar and unique in the states and the chance of Dr. Paul getting the nomination isn't as bad as the media makes it seem once you delve into the specifics...the idea is that Dr. Paul will have many, many more delegates at the brokered convention than anticipated...However, the media are working overtime to derail this scenario because its seeming more and more likely...I think he has a darn good shot...

 

[BarryDonegan]

that's very true, i personally do not EVER empathize with people like mitt romney. i consider all big government neocons to be constitutional crooks, but watching mccain trash romney in such a childish way almost made me empathize with romney. anyone who listens to romney's quote, which he was using as source, obviously can tell he means that he thinks that the president needs to have a secret set of goals after which he pulls out U.S. troops, but publicly announcing this timetable would give the enemy too much strategic advantage. he clearly did not support a timetable of withdrawal. i personal wished he supported an immediate withdrawal, but i would never take that he supported a timetable for withdrawal in a retreat by the language he used. if mccain is unable to understand simple speech like that, then he is unfit to be president. what if he had a discussion with a foreign president or dictator and made a similar mistake. that could be world war iii.

however, obviously this wasn't a mistake... it was a diversionary tactic. he wanted to make mitt look like a foreign policy flip flopper(again, wish he was, but hes not) when really hes a flip flopper on issues like abortion and amnesty, which mccain does not want to see brought up, as he will lose the social conservative vote.

 

[emilysdad]

"I do believe -- and here is likely where you and I will part ways, ultimately -- that it is more important for the person you believe will be the best President than the person you believe best represents your views. So, while I disagree with John McCain on abortion (I'm moderate-to-pro-choice) and gay rights (I'm pro-gay marriage) and immigration (I'm for securing the borders and not granting special permissions), I believe John McCain has the character to be a great President. I'm sure many of you disagree. I respect that. (Oh, and as a side note, I've taken the quizzes and, yes, my views are closest to Dr. Paul's views.)"

???? What then draws you to McCain?? The war??? Oh, character is a reflection of ones past. I suggest you dig a bit further before proclaiming Mr. McCain has the character to be president. What makes a war hero? Being a POW? McCain was at the bottom of his class and was not a good pilot. He lost 4 jets before being shot down in number 5. War hero???? Gimmie a break man.

 

[Rob]

I'll add that we believe we "have" a majority of delegates a couple states, and we may "have" a majority in many more by the time of the convention. I cannot speak to situations other than that of Michigan, however.

 

[Bradley in DC]

Hi Joe,

As you are well aware from Mr. McCain's previous run (and now), most Republicans have reservations about him. (I'm trying to use as dispassionate words as possible.) Dr. Paul has a very devoted base, money in the bank, and anti-tax, pro-gun, pro-life, pro-sovereignty positions and record unmatched by any other candidate in the race.

Honestly, our own HQ has probably been our biggest liability, but that problem has been addressed. Look our for a "new and improved" official campaign now!

 

[piotr1]

McCain can't beat the democrats, a warmonger will polarize the voters. The majority of Americans are against the War. The majority of Americans strongly disprove of Bush. McCain hugged Bush...

Only a peace candidate like Paul can beat the democrats.

I endorse Freedom, Peace and Prosperity.

 

[Rob]

Everyone please try to be a bit more diplomatic. We should be thankful Joe has come here and approached us at all.

 

[davidfarrar]

Thanks for you post - you raise some great qustions... From a certain perspective, it might seem like it's not possible for Ron Paul to win the nomination.

Nationally he has never polled above 10%. He has not won a single state cacus or primary yet. He is not an eloquent speaker - especially in tense situations - and his voice can get whiny. He's "old" (he is in the same boat with McCain though)

BUT - and please think about this - what does he have going against him other than that?

Now here are some reasons that Ron Paul IS electable, and CAN win this Election:

1 - He has WON more than half of the straw polls conducted all over the nation. Far more than any other candidate.

2 - He has come in 2nd in the Nevada and Louisiana Caucuses.

3 - He is the only candidate who has raised more money each quarter than the previous quarter, raising almost 20Million in the 4th quarter. (Keep in mind these are small donations - about $100 average per donor.)

4 - He IS honest, and CONSISTENTLY acts (and votes) like a true consevative.

5 - Ronald Regan Campaigned for him.

6 - He has experience in the Military and Health Care, is an expert on econimics, knows the constitutuion that this country is supposed to follow, and has an impecable 30 year voting record.

7- He recieves more donations from members of the military than any other candidate - Republican or Democart.

8 - Has a very active grassroots campaign made up completely of volunteers.

9 - His supporters don;t bounce around. They stick!

10 - Most of the nation has still not even heard of Ron Paul! (Think about that one a little as well.)


Ron Paul is electable. We the people of this country just need to elect him.

Please keep learning about Dr. Paul and all that he stands for. I'm sure that if you do, you will come to see why this election is so very important, and why Dr. Paul is who we as a nation NEED right now in the whitehouse.

I myself used to support Romney, and actually campainged for him for a while...until - like you - I started doing a little more reading on Ron Paul.

Hope this helps! Sorry for the length...

And yet you are going to vote for McCain?

Now let me ask you a question: Why?

ps: And Joe, please don 't worry about being called a "Troll", "Mole" or an "Agent Provocateur". I have been called those names many, many times here and it has never stopped me.

 

[aravoth]

I will tell you folks right off the bat that I'm a John McCain supporter. I was in 2000 and I am now. However, I'm trying fairly hard to be open-minded about Dr. Paul, given that I have fiscally conservative and socially moderate-to-liberal views (i.e., government, leave me and mine alone). So please do not respond to this post with accusations of "Troll" or insults of my preferred candidate or declarations that with my views being of such a character I'm backing the wrong man (although I am, of course, inviting these types of responses by alluding to them beforehand).

To put it as neutrally and non-judgmentally as possible: do you folks believe that Ron Paul will win the Republican nomination? Do you believe that Ron Paul can win the Republican nomination? At this point in time, it appears to me as an outsider that Ron Paul's chances are the least of the four remaining candidates and that even though he's still got to have a large warchest (freedomchest?), I'm not sure that he's shown that -- whether his fault of not -- he can break through to achieve anything more than an at-most 10% showing in major primaries.

I'm just curious as to how you dispassionately view your chances in this election cycle.

As for me, I think Dr. Paul is a fundamentally honest, intelligent, and good man. Nonetheless, in this day of soundbite politics and a demagogue'd electorate, Ron Paul doesn't appear to be able to get any traction with the broaded electorate. So does he have a chance?

(Oh, and for the record, while this is my first post, I've been reading the message board for a while.)

He can win. John McCain is no republican. If the election boils down to soundbites, and the GOP nominates anyone else for the General election, they are finished. Elect a guy that tried to grant amnesty to 12 million people, thats something even most democrats oppose. Then you have Romney, who at one time claimed he was more liberal than Ted Kennedy.

So those are your choices? The GOP has 5 days to pull it's head out of it's ass and return to it's roots. And you can't do that with McCain, Romney or Huckabee.

All these guys will Talk on and on about Regan. Well you know what? Ron Paul gave the Republican party Ronald Regan. Look it up sometime. If reading even means a god damn thing to anyone anymore. Regan endorsed Paul back in the 80's, and you know what? Ron Paul still hasn't change his stance on one single issue. I bet if Regan was alive today, he'd endorse him again.

The GOP is finished without Ron Paul. No other canidate is a statesman like him. While every coward in America is worried about terrorists hiding in their front lawns, everything that Ron Paul said was going to happen to the US economy 10 years ago is happening right now.

It'll be interesting to watch any democrat rip Romney and McCain to shreds over every issue they flopped on. Or maybe they won't, since both Romney and McCain's voting records are right in line with Hillary Clinton's. Either of those two get the nod, we'll have a socialistic president, and a socialistic congress. For 8 years most likely. And that will be the GOP's fault.

I will not ever Blame this election on Liberal mischif, or Socialist ideas, I will blame the GOP, I will never vote republican again after this, and I will never donate to the GOP again. The Republican Party strayed so far from the Platform that they act and behave like every other democrat that wanted to "Make the World Safe for Democracy", at the expense of our economy and our Middle class. It is the Republican fault we are here. They broke their "contract with America", they spent more than any democratic Administration ever did. They Spoke out against going into Kosovo, and yet championed the cause in Iraq. They Slaughtered Habeas Corpus, They created a whole new Government Bureaucracy, and they doubled the Dept ed, nearly doubled the Dept of energy, Said that The Medicare Prescription drug Benefit would cost 100-300 billion dollars, it wound up costing over 1 trillion, and didn't make drugs any cheaper. Un-fucking-believable.

Oh yeah, Republicans are all about Smal Government arn't they, They're all for Liberty and Freedom What a crock of shit. Go Ahead, vote for the one Idea you think is Republican (The Unconstitutional War), And think about how much like Bill Clinton you've become.

Keep beating the war drum, it won't make any difference. The economy is crashing. Even as every idiotic pundit says "Look at the Dow, it's up today, see the economy is doing fine" As if 30 companies that are owned by foreigners can drive our 13 trillion dollar economy.

As the dollar goes, so will the war, the two are tied. Hopefully after that happen the US will Balkanize, and at least that will give real conservatives a chance to form a prosporus nation again. And Once again, if that happens, It will be the GOP's fault. They Had the Reigns, they fucked it up. I don't give a shit what any pundit says.