Does Ron Paul Still Have a chance of becoming President????

sailingaway said:
I think you are wrong that Ron can't win a primary. First, Louisiana had its straw vote but its caucuses haven't occurred yet. I think Ron has a real chance to win. IF he wins that OR if he gets reporting on his delegate wins for states, he could get momentum THAT is what he needs to win other primaries, people thinking that he can.

watch this Reality Check on the state of the primaries, imho what we need is to let people know it IS possible, not try to persuade them they should give up hope while there are still actual battles to be fought which will determine the outcome:


Click to expand...


Man, I wish I could +rep you some more :)
 
Does he have a chance? Does it matter what the results of primaries are from here out? Well, look at Iowa and you tell me. Ron Paul technically came in third in Iowa, the first state to vote this election cycle. After the delegates are selected recently, he took half, maybe more coming. Eff yes he still has a chance. I wish more people would pay attention to actual delegates being won instead of the projected totals being allocated by the news media.

My question, is Mitt Romney really dumb enough to think he has this locked up?

Using realclearpolitics:
Romney needs 306 delegates, assuming that he truly has 838. There are 800-900 left among the states yet to vote. He could take 33% of the vote and win it by proportionate allocation. BUT, this assumes that he truly has 838 and that he will truly get another 306 so easily. If you pay any attention on here, you know how much better organized Ron Paulers are with the delegate process, so I'd doubt Romney truly has 750 delegates (maybe 700). He has to actually win about half of the remaining delegates through the remaining states to stop a second round of voting at the convention. As soon as that 2nd round hits, all candidates start bleeding bound delegates to Ron Paul. In the third round, I'd doubt anyone can compete with Paul's tally.

All you delegates reading RPF, KEEP IT UP! This is working! Don't tip your hand to who you are though. We don't need any reason for you folks to get profiled out of the process somehow.
 
I don't think Romney is at ALL dumb enough to think he has this locked up which is why he has hired a pollster to 'poll' delegates by phone on their presidential preference, going into the NV convention this weekend. He just wants OUR folks and others who might be sympathetic to think it is all locked up so they don't bother fighting and showing up when Ron needs them.
 
sailingaway said:
I think you are wrong that Ron can't win a primary. First, Louisiana had its straw vote but its caucuses haven't occurred yet. I think Ron has a real chance to win. IF he wins that OR if he gets reporting on his delegate wins for states, he could get momentum THAT is what he needs to win other primaries, people thinking that he can.

watch this Reality Check on the state of the primaries, imho what we need is to let people know it IS possible, not try to persuade them they should give up hope while there are still actual battles to be fought which will determine the outcome:


Click to expand...


Well, if I would speak or write to thousends of Ron Paul fans or possible voters I would just let them know, that there is still a possibility. And there is one, how small it may be.

But I dont think more than 100 or maybe 1000 Ron Paul die-harders read my post above so I didnt speak in campaign mode and just pointed out a - for me -realistic view on things. And thats - 99% Romney will be the GOP nominee.

And yes, Paul can win a primary though he didnt come near yet. But there are a lot If's.

I hope that the media will report on Paul-won states after their final conventions. But I'm pretty sure they will do, but not as loud as we would like.

And thats mostly because it wont change the game. 99% Romney if he doesnt eat his children or something. As I pointed out, even if it would come to a brokered convention, Romney will win this (because of Santo and Grinch establishment delegates). But its highly unlikely that he doesnt get the 1144. He needs about 30-40% of the delegates in the coming states. Ok, win CA, win TX and then the game will be another one. Then maybe I will change my mind about that. But after the five races two days ago and all the other primaries and the polls I cant see Paul winning these two states. Anyway, you should fight to get the best result possible!

Hitman83 said:
Romney needs 306 delegates, assuming that he truly has 838. There are 800-900 left among the states yet to vote. He could take 33% of the vote and win it by proportionate allocation. BUT, this assumes that he truly has 838 and that he will truly get another 306 so easily. If you pay any attention on here, you know how much better organized Ron Paulers are with the delegate process, so I'd doubt Romney truly has 750 delegates (maybe 700). He has to actually win about half of the remaining delegates through the remaining states to stop a second round of voting at the convention.
Click to expand...


Romney has 804 die-hard bound or die-hard pledged delegates right now. They will vote for him anyway in Round 1, even if Paul Supporters are within them. Besides, right now 293 delegates - from states that already had their caucuses or primaries - are unplegded, automatic (and unpledged) or still contested. Romney surely will get a considerable part of them.

Info comes from:
http://frontloading.blogspot.de/2012/04/race-to-1144-mid-atlanticnortheast.html
A trustworthy page, as I see it.
 
one word.....

absofukinlutely

remember these words that still ring true today.....

"It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams

Do not give in, We are sooooo close.
 
even bound delegates can technically be unbound if enough of them vote to unbind at convention.

However, no one is saying it is going to be easy, just that it is HARDER if we have people here trying to convince people there is no chance when there is a chance with harder work, however small that chance might be. Saying it isn't going to happen could be self fulfilling simply because you yourself could make people give up.

If people give up THEN obviously we wouldn't have a chance. Our path RELIES on dedicated support.
 
dusman said:
A plurality differs from a majority, where you don't need 50% or better, but rather more than any of the other candidates.

For example, if there is 40 delegates up for grabs and Paul gets 15, Romney gets 12, Santorum gets 8, and Gingrich gets 5, then Paul would have the plularity, but not a majority (he has less than 50% of the delegates).
Click to expand...

That being the case, no wonder Mr. Romney is worried...
 
sailingaway said:
even bound delegates can technically be unbound if enough of them vote to unbind at convention.

However, no one is saying it is going to be easy, just that it is HARDER if we have people here trying to convince people there is no chance when there is a chance with harder work, however small that chance might be. Saying it isn't going to happen could be self fulfilling simply because you yourself could make people give up.

If people give up THEN obviously we wouldn't have a chance. Our path RELIES on dedicated support.
Click to expand...

+rep. Very well said
 
Let's not discount events that could play into our favor and turn things around. August is a long way off. Let's see what the world does this summer when everyone is crazy from the heat.

Bottom line....Mitt Romney hasn't 'won' yet, and Ron Paul hasn't 'lost'. We can control our destiny to the extent we are able and the rest we have to leave to fate.
 
sailingaway said:
I don't think Romney is at ALL dumb enough to think he has this locked up which is why he has hired a pollster to 'poll' delegates by phone on their presidential preference, going into the NV convention this weekend. He just wants OUR folks and others who might be sympathetic to think it is all locked up so they don't bother fighting and showing up when Ron needs them.
Click to expand...

+rep to all your amazing posts on this thread!
 
Here's the deal. We stop worrying about the technicalities and just push on the same way we have been doing. Don't listen to anything but your own heart, consience - whatever. Stop freaking out over percentages, polls and 'chances'. The only way we really do have a chance, is if we all push on like we have been. If it doesn't work, IT WON'T BE FOR NOTHING. We have a chance at changing the GOP. If that doesn't work, we're still on the course of a revolution. It's a win-win-win situation - the second two 'wins' just require more patience. Try to use Dr. Paul's 12 terms of patience as an example. We WILL do this. The key is to never get discouraged, no matter what happens in Tampa.
 
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I guess nothing is certain until after its over, but I will say that, from my perspective, IF we are going to win at the convention, its going to require us to have a lot of people there, and we must know and understand Parliamentary procedure and the GOP's own rules better than they do. That's a tall order.
 
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