Does Ron Paul Still Have a chance of becoming President????

[ericthethe]

Except that Ron would throw the ring in, himself...

No, he'd go on a long-winded rant about how much more valuable it is than paper.

 

[speciallyblend]

I've been extremely disappointed in the Republican higher-ups lately, not just because they're trying to brush Ron under the carpet, but also because from my perspective their treatment of him makes no sense strategically. Even assuming I was not a Ron Paul supporter, but just a steely-eyed Republican who wanted to replace Obama with a neocon at all costs, it would make more sense to have Paul in the tent (peeing out, so to speak), then outside the tent and possibly screwing things up for them with a third party run. I had really hoped they would placate the Paulites with a Rand Paul VP-nomination, an appointment of Ron as the Treasury Secretary or something like that, but they really seem to want to brush all that aside and just pretend it's Romney, Romney, Romney and the Paul thing was just an irrelevant flash in the pan.

I don't understand how they can't see that while Ron Paul may not have the power to beat Romney in the nomination process (at least, it's not very likely), he DEFINITELY has the power to ruin it for them. Romney's chances are already looking pretty questionable and his would be a slim margin of victory in November at best. If Paul takes away even 3% of his votes, even with just simple write-ins, Romney loses. All Ron has to do is run third party. Or even not run third party but say, endorse Gary Johnson or something. I think they think all the Paulites will just grit their teeth and vote for Romney since at least he's slightly better than Obama. But how little they understand the Paul people if they think that!

How do they not see that Paul has the power to snatch the presidency from their grasp? How can they be so stupid as to alienate his supporters?

Just a rant, really...

spot on ^^^^^^^^^, it boils down to 2 options for the gop ron paul or obama. No matter what the lying gop establishment says, they love obama!

 

[wgadget]

Actually I've noticed in the past two days that many DO recognize our power. On twitter they have been engaging me as to how ROMNEY REALLY IS BETTER THAN OBAMA, and how I should please please please change my mind. I was even going to make a thread about it. This is turning into a GREAT opportunity to discuss economics and the Federal Reserve. Maybe even wake more people up!

 

[RickyJ]

Yeah he has a chance. But that chance is slim at this point with the Republican party because they have shown they will use every dirty trick to stop him from being the nominee. They could even change the rules at the convention I hear. Third party looks like the best way for him to become president now. I will be voting for him in November either way. It will be an honor to vote for Ron Paul for president and to get as many as I can to do the same.

 

[flynn]

People tend to forget that fighting for liberty, especially individual liberty is a life time battle.

 

[69360]

I bet you $500 Ron Paul's name will be on the ballot in Tampa and we will win the nomination. You must watch the news to much.

I want Ron to win, but I'm not stupid. I'd take that bet. I think he will appear on the ballot, but the odds are heavily against a win. Romney is very likely to have 1144 bound on the first vote.

 

[Britannia]

Can I straighten out exactly what plurality means please?

Does Dr. Paul have to win half the delgates in five States or more than half? If there's 40 delegates up for grabs does he have to win 21 of them, for example? I'm sure I'm not the only one a little confused by this.

I think the grassroots have been doing an outstanding job for Dr. Paul. You've won Iowa, Minnesota, and (hopefully) Colorado for him so far. Three more and his name goes on the ballot for sure, right? Considering the media thinks Dr. Paul is invisible it's staggering that you've propelled him to this level of success. The only thing you have to do now is soldier on and keep fighting the good fight.

I apologise for the bad language in advance, but I think you're all bloody marvellous!

 

[V3n]

I'm not buying any of the delegate numbers we're being fed.
We won't know anything until Tampa.

IMO

 

[Anti Federalist]

Meh.

I'm voting for Ron Paul no matter what happens.

No One But Paul

 

[Blue]

Meh.

I'm voting for Ron Paul no matter what happens.

No One But Paul

This.

 

[JSaindon]

The elephant and donkey parties are dead to me. The only things that matter is the character and morals of the person. I do not vote along any party, and whoever does 'just because' its their party, is a fool and that is what got us into this mess. Both parties are corrupt and push legislation to increase their wealth, so voting along a party line now is just short sighted and foolish IMO. I vote on the person who agrees with me. I'm stubborn and will not be forced to agree with someone/something I do not believe in myself. Ron Paul or no one.

 

[ClydeCoulter]

Okay, gonna take a chance on this...(I've been married 3 times, still married to the 3rd 25 years, so I"ve seen this a few times)

When a woman is having a baby for the first time, it seems that the hardest part is near the end. They are so tired and worn out with all of the pain and pushing that they almost want to 'give up' near the end. But that is when it's very near and just a few more big pushes and out comes life, a beautiful life. PUSH, PUSH, PUSH we're almost there, Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness

 

[Original_Intent]

First off, I will be voting for Ron no matter what. But I have reached the point where I truly feel TPTB have beaten us, for now. However....
I do believe that in the long run, we have won. I believe that Ron Paul and all of us in the R3VOLution will be looked back on in history and that this was a turning point and what eventually will save America. Ron Paul will be the Goldwater of this generation, and 50 years from now I expect the term "Ron Paul Republican" will be in use and understood to be true conservatives that fought (and eventually won back) the party.

I am interested to see who the next flag bearer will be. I like Rand, but I don't have the enthusiasm for him that I have always had for Ron.
I expect no matter what happens thru the rest of this election cycle, that Liberty Forest will live on, and also YAL and C4L will continue to grow and expand their influence.

I personally have not been as active as I was in the '08 race. I've donated what I could, but as for many of us, RL has been a lot rougher than it was 4 years ago. Which in some ways provides the motivation to continue on and try to turn this nation around.

 

[azxd]

Don't forget one little thing ... When Ron wins, that's when the real battle begins.

He will need our support more than ever, after the inauguration.
He won't be making a bunch of signing statements, except to revoke a few things that don't align with the Constitution, and which the Constitution gives him the authority to revoke.

DC will need to be flooded with support for the changes he will want to make on behalf of the American people.

If the support dwindles ... He will be labeled as ineffective, and TPTB will be saying ... See we told you.






Did I mention that while the (MSM portrayed) chances might be slim, he has my vote.

 

[sailingaway]

The elephant and donkey parties are dead to me. The only things that matter is the character and morals of the person. I do not vote along any party, and whoever does 'just because' its their party, is a fool and that is what got us into this mess. Both parties are corrupt and push legislation to increase their wealth, so voting along a party line now is just short sighted and foolish IMO. I vote on the person who agrees with me. I'm stubborn and will not be forced to agree with someone/something I do not believe in myself. Ron Paul or no one.

this.

and welcome to the forums.

 

[sailingaway]

Our chance, and the chance of any other conservative who doesn't want Romney, lies in blocking Romney from getting 1144 delegates. Other conservatives COULD recognize that and join with us to do it. That will likely not give anyone first ballot support at the RNC but will require whomever emerges to be more satisfactory to conservatives because they will need conservative support. After the first ballot most delegates are unbound and can vote their consciences. It opens up possibilities. If we block Romney, Ron could win. Or some new candidate acceptable to conservatives could (not that that is what we want.) Ron WILL have states and I believe he will have at least the necessary plurality in 5 states to get nominated into contention at the RNC BUT that means people have to WORK now, we need enthusiasm. We need phone from home. We need LOUISIANA DELEGATES and we need supporters there charged up because we are now in a low turnout mode. It hurts us to have supporters depressed, thinking there is no chance and not turning out ourselves. Think of what the difference could have been in Pennsylvania if only OUR OWN PEOPLE had kept the faith and turned out. These discussions can have results in those who read them, recall, and convincing our own supporters that there is no chance is the best way to lose.

At this point, I honestly think there is a real CHANCE, but it is not the 'likely' course of events. We all know what that is. But a BIG part of the reason I consider our chance slimmer rather than better now that the other two anti Romney's are out is that some of OUR OWN PEOPLE seem to think it is over. We have to get people MORE enthusiastic at this point to have the wins that will give Ron momentum to block Romney. With the media black out, I don't know if we can do that, but we should keep that in mind in the way we discuss these issues. For every member on this site there are MANY more watching. I don't know if you are aware, but our numbers had dropped here to 12000 visiters a day about, and the last couple of days, since Minnesota delegates became somewhat known, we have had a lot more traffic. So there ARE people checking in or looking around at candidates. Let's bring them in.

Beyond that, it is taking over the party apparatus for future runs so the party can't keep running the same script on conservatives every single election.

 

[ClydeCoulter]

Don't forget one little thing ... When Ron wins, that's when the real battle begins.

He will need our support more than ever, after the inauguration.
He won't be making a bunch of signing statements, except to revoke a few things that don't align with the Constitution, and which the Constitution gives him the authority to revoke.

DC will need to be flooded with support for the changes he will want to make on behalf of the American people.

If the support dwindles ... He will be labeled as ineffective, and TPTB will be saying ... See we told you.

I like your train of thought

 

[dusman]

Can I straighten out exactly what plurality means please?

Does Dr. Paul have to win half the delgates in five States or more than half? If there's 40 delegates up for grabs does he have to win 21 of them, for example? I'm sure I'm not the only one a little confused by this.

I think the grassroots have been doing an outstanding job for Dr. Paul. You've won Iowa, Minnesota, and (hopefully) Colorado for him so far. Three more and his name goes on the ballot for sure, right? Considering the media thinks Dr. Paul is invisible it's staggering that you've propelled him to this level of success. The only thing you have to do now is soldier on and keep fighting the good fight.

I apologise for the bad language in advance, but I think you're all bloody marvellous!

A plurality differs from a majority, where you don't need 50% or better, but rather more than any of the other candidates.

For example, if there is 40 delegates up for grabs and Paul gets 15, Romney gets 12, Santorum gets 8, and Gingrich gets 5, then Paul would have the plularity, but not a majority (he has less than 50% of the delegates).

 

[MarcusI]

Here are a few thoughts on this question from an outsider. I'm a German who is very interested in politics around the globe and also in election rights and election processes. The US way to choose presidential candidates is one of the most complicated processes I've seen this far, but now I think I have an overview. Please correct me, if I'm wrong in anything.

Will Ron Paul be the GOP nominee? Sorry, but no.

Has he still got chances? Somewhere under 1%, I would guess.

Why is that so?

1) Romney is likely to get the 1144. Be honest to yourself and then you will see that its highly unlikely that Paul will win a primary. If I see the results from all the other states that voted already - it was always the same story. He was doing quite well, much better than 2008, but - in primaries! - he was nowhere near being the winner. Even supposed that most of Santo and Grinch supporters would vote for Paul, it would still be quite unlikely. But then he would have a chance in CA and TX. But will they? As far as I see: No. In the five states two days ago Santo did get 6-9%, in PA even more, even upfront of Paul. I think we will see the same in the coming weeks. So thats why it would be marvelous if Paul could hold Romney under 1144, it would be wonderful but its highy unlikely. And if Romney gets 1144 (in the real count, not the projections by AP or CNN) the game is over.

2) What if Paul sensationally hold Romney under 1144? Well, then Paul has first to get the ominous five states. Iowa and Minnesota look very well, almost done deal. And then? Maybe Washington. Probably Maine. Still one state is needed, but there are a few states with chances. So I belive Paul can get this.

And then? Romney would go to RNC with something like 1100 pledged delegates for Round 1. How many of them are stealth fighters for Paul? Nobody knows. But - most of them are certainly GOP establishment people. Same for the then-free Grinch and Santo people. Most of them GOP establishment, maybe less by Santo, but even the more by Grinch. And Paul? Will have 200-300 pledged/bound delegates. In Rhode Island some of these bound one are Romney supporters! (Look at results on RI GOP page if you dont believe me). Hopefully this is not the case in other states. But anyway - I cant see that Paul could get beyond maybe 500. I know this is a non-educated guess, but given the fact that most of the GOP establishment hates you, I think that 500 would be a tremendous, marvelous success. But - Romney would have no problem to find delegates for him out of the Grinch and Santo delegates to get the 1144. Cant imagine anything else given the fact that he will have close to 1144 delegates himself. Should not be a big problem to even out 50 or 100 stealth Paul-Fighters in his own rows.

Having said this, I still would recommend highest efforts to get as many delegates as possible! It will give you media attention! Ron Paul winning CA or TX would be a desaster for Romney! Media likes desasters! Especially the democrat leaning media would love to brag about that.
So why they didnt do that last week for Minnesota? Because this was to complicated. Most people wouldnt understand it and they would have to explain the whole complicated caucus system. And why they already had declared a winner out of their need to produce headlines. CA or TX would be different.

And what about a strong outcome on the RNC? Same applies to that! Even if Romney has the 1144, Paul will get more attention if he has serious support in it. Prime-time speech and so on. And this is what you still need. You are on the right way, keep the spirit alive. Time is on your side, as financial catastrophes are to come - and you will be ones who predicted it and who have solutions. It would be better to prevent the catastrophes, but the people didnt understand. So they have to feel it first.

Simply fight it out, dont give up your young movement. Fight for every delegate and change the GOP. It will take time but there are no other alternatives for people who understand the actual system like you have.

 

[sailingaway]

I think you are wrong that Ron can't win a primary. First, Louisiana had its straw vote but its caucuses haven't occurred yet. I think Ron has a real chance to win. IF he wins that OR if he gets reporting on his delegate wins for states, he could get momentum THAT is what he needs to win other primaries, people thinking that he can.

watch this Reality Check on the state of the primaries, imho what we need is to let people know it IS possible, not try to persuade them they should give up hope while there are still actual battles to be fought which will determine the outcome: