Rifleman, please read what I posted for you protectionist guys in another thread:
Part 1:
Statist Economic Fallacies: Breaking Through the Nonsense (so far a 3 part blog, 21 fallacies)
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog.php?view=41436
4. Tariffs that limit imports, and policies that encourage exports, are good ideas
The fallacy that government is a better judge of the most profitable modes of directing labor and capital than individuals is well illustrated by exporting policies. In the twentieth century, the federal government has sought to promote exports in various ways. The first was by forcing open foreign markets through a combination of diplomatic and military pressure, all the while keeping our own markets wholly or partially closed. The famous "open door" policy, formulated by Secretary of State John Hay in 1899 was never meant to be reciprocal (after all, he served in the McKinley administration, the most archly protectionist in American history), and it often required a gun boat and a contingent of hard charging marines to kick open the door.
A second method was export subsidies, which are still with us. The Export-Import Bank was established by Roosevelt in 1934 to provide cash grants, government-guaranteed loans, and cheap credit to exporters and their overseas customers. It remains today-untouched by "alleged" free market Republican administrations and congresses.
A third method was dollar devaluation, to cheapen the selling price of American goods abroad. In 1933, Roosevelt took the country off the gold standard and revalued it at $34.06, which represented a significant devaluation. The object was to allow for more domestic inflation and to boost exports, particularly agricultural ones, which failed; now Bush is trying it.
I'd just like to point out, FDR's agriculture policies caused the "soup lines" or "bread lines" we always hear so much about. He had 10 million acres of crops destroyed and 6 million farm animals killed in order to boost domestic food prices for producers. This raised the price of food. His subsidies to export made exporting the food more profitable than selling it domestically. The combination of the two led to food shortages. So, next time some liberal claims that stimulus and bailouts prevented "soup and bread lines", remind them those were the fault of FDR and bad economics. It doesn't even matter that stimulus and bailouts don't work (or work well), it's enough the Obama administration isn't as dull on economics as their Roosevelt predecessors. We simply don't have these "soup and bread lines" because no one is repeating FDR's mistakes, which caused them to begin with.
A fourth method, tried by the Reagan administration, was driving down farm prices to boost exports, thereby shrinking the trade deficit. The plan was that America would undersell its competitors, capture markets, and rake in foreign exchange. (When others do this it is denounced as unfair, as predatory trade.) What happened? Well, it turned out that the agricultural export market was rather elastic. Countries like Brazil and Argentina, depending on farm exports as one of their few sources of foreign exchange, which they desperately needed to service their debt loads, simply cut their prices to match the Americans. Plan fails.
But it got worse: American farmers had to sell larger quantities (at the lower prices) just to break even. Nevertheless, although the total volume of American agricultural exports increased, their real value (in constant dollars) fell - more work, lower profits. Furthermore, farmers had to import more oil and other producer goods to expand their production, which worsened the trade deficit. Then, there were the unforeseen and deleterious side-effects. Expanded cultivation and livestock-raising stressed out and degraded the quality of the soils, polluted watersheds, and lowered the nutritional value of the expanded crop of vegetables, grains, and animal proteins.
The author says "worsened" trade deficits, in italics, for a reason. Trade deficits are not negative, and the fact people think trade deficits are negative is itself a fallacy. We will cover this fallacy here, after we have finished with this part.
Finally, the policy of lower price/higher volume drove many small farmers, here and abroad, off the land, into the cities, and across the border, our border. Here is an economic policy that not only failed in its purpose but worsened the very problem it was intended to alleviate, and caused a nutritional, ecological, and demographic catastrophe.
I wished the author would have also italicized "problem", as to further drive home the point that trade deficits are not negative. So, let's address this fallacy now.
•The instinctive reaction of politicians is that if one country places a tariff barrier on our exports, we should respond by doing the same. However economic theory suggests that placing a tariff barrier on imports leads to a loss of economic welfare. It is better to not retaliate.
Time and time again, trade restrictions like tariffs have hurt our country's economy, not helped it.
The Embargo Act of 1807 and the subsequent Nonintercourse Acts were American laws restricting American ships from engaging in foreign trade between the years of 1807 and 1812. They led to the War of 1812 between the U.S. and Britain.
Despite its unpopular nature, the Embargo Act did have some limited, unintended benefits, especially as entrepreneurs and workers responded by bringing in fresh capital and labor into New England textile and other manufacturing industries, lessening America's reliance on the British merchants.[8] (Since the damage that was caused was so widespread and severe, you can liken this to 'stepping over dollars, to pick up pennies')
The Embargo was in fact hurting the United States as much as Britain or France. Britain, expected to suffer most from the American regulations, found consolation in the development of a South American market, and the British shipowners were pleased that American competition had been removed by the action of the U.S. government.
The attempt of Jefferson and Madison to resist aggression by peaceful means gained a belated success in June 1812 when Britain finally promised to repeal her Orders in Council. The British concession was too late, for by the time the news reached America the United States had already declared the War of 1812 against Britain.
The entire series of events was ridiculed in the press as Dambargo, Mob-Rage, Go-bar-'em or O-grab-me ('Embargo' spelled backward); there was a cartoon ridiculing the Act as a snapping turtle, named "O' grab me", grabbing at American shipping.
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
The Tariff Act of 1930, otherwise known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff or Hawley-Smoot Tariff (P.L. 71-361)[1] was an act, sponsored by United States Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley, and signed into law on June 17, 1930, that raised U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods to record levels.[2]
The overall level tariffs under the Tariff were the second-highest in US history, exceeded (by a small margin) only by the Tariff of 1828[3] and the ensuing retaliatory tariffs by U.S. trading partners reduced American exports and imports by more than half.
Some economists have opined that the tariffs contributed to the severity of the Great Depression.[4][5][6]
U.S. imports decreased 66% from US$4.4 billion (1929) to US$1.5 billion (1933), and exports decreased 61% from US$5.4 billion to US$2.1 billion, both decreases much more than the 50% decrease of the GDP. ( I want everyone to notice, we are in an era of a horrible economy with high unemployment and trade surpluses. In 1929, the trade surplus was $1 billion, this did not however translate to long term growth or more employment. In 1933, we ran a smaller trade surplus and had worsening effects, along with LESS TRADE OVERALL. Trade surpluses (foreign exchange deficits) are often regarded as good, but they have almost never translated into higher growth rates or low unemployment rates. The higher growth rates and lower unemployment rates are found in periods of high trade deficits (foreign exchange surpluses). The very way governments come up with trade numbers, and whether a nation has deficits or not, has been criticized as nearly erroneous, by free market economists from Frederic Bastiat to Don Boudreaux. Bastiat demonstrated that a government can record a deficit, even though a net profit was made by their citizen who was involved in the trade. This is counter intutitive, but deductively logical. The government numbers record the price at sale, not the resale value and profit made. When this profit is taken into account, then the only debt in the 'trade deficit' that is not covered by the foreign exchange surplus is government debt acrued by borrowing from foreigners. When people say "we need to do something about the trade deficit", I say "yes we do, we need to stop letting the government run in deficit and debt by borrowing money from foreigners". The common misconception is that unbalanced, or even unreciprocated, trade is bad for the economy. In fact, private sector trade is not debt, and is not bad for the economy at all. It's the debt the government runs up in the trade deficit that materializes as debt, and gives trade deficits a bad name. Private sector trade, good...Public Sector borrowing, bad. As you can see from the severely diminished trade numbers above, protectionism shrinks the economic pie, while free trade (or at least free-er trade) expands the total economic pie, benefiting everyone.)
According to government statistics, U.S. imports from Europe decreased from a 1929 high of $1,334 million to just $390 million during 1932, while U.S. exports to Europe decreased from $2,341 million in 1929 to $784 million in 1932. Overall, world trade decreased by some 66% between 1929 and 1934.[15]
Although the tariff act was passed after the stock-market crash of 1929, some economic historians consider the political discussion leading up to the passing of the act a factor in causing the crash, the recession that began in late 1929, or both, and its eventual passage a factor in deepening the Great Depression.[16] Unemployment was at 7.8% in 1930 when the Smoot-Hawley tariff was passed, but it jumped to 16.3% in 1931, 24.9% in 1932, and 25.1% in 1933.[17]
Imports during 1929 were only 4.2% of the United States' GNP and exports were only 5.0%. Monetarists such as Milton Friedman who emphasize the central role of the money supply in causing the depression, downplay the Smoot-Hawley's effect on the entire U.S. economy.[18]
I think it's fair to say the money supply was responsible for the deflation (too little money in circulation), and the tariffs were responsible for reduction in trade and GDP, overall.
I think it's pretty clear, interfering in the economy to spur exports or reduce imports only hurt the economy. Which, by chance, brings us to our next fallacy...
5. The fallacy of trade deficits
The 19th century economist and philosopher Frédéric Bastiat expressed the idea that trade deficits actually were a manifestation of profit, rather than a loss. He proposed as an example to suppose that he, a Frenchman, exported French wine and imported British coal, turning a profit. He supposed he was in France, and sent a cask of wine which was worth 50 francs to England. The customhouse would record an export of 50 francs. If, in England, the wine sold for 70 francs (or the pound equivalent), which he then used to buy coal, which he imported into France, and was found to be worth 90 francs in France, he would have made a profit of 40 francs. But the customhouse would say that the value of imports exceeded that of exports and was trade deficit against the ledger of France.[30]
In the above example, there is a single trader who is traveling and trading across national borders. The Frenchman owns a cask of wine worth 50 francs, and travels with it to England. France records an export of 50 francs, England an import of 50 francs.. In England, he sells his wine for 70 francs (or the pound equivalent) and buys 70 francs worth of English coal. He then leaves England for France with the 70 francs of coal, so that Enland records this as an export and France as an import. So, England has exported 20 francs more than it has imported, for a trade surplus of 20 francs. Meanwhile France imported 20 francs more than it exported, for a trade deficit of 20 francs. This is the last time the trade is recorded by either government, the entire reason why trade numbers are irrelevant in most cases to trade effects. Therefore, it's important to notice that the nation with the trade surplus (England) actually "lost money" on the trades, while the nation with the trade deficit (France) actually made all the profits. But the trade did not conclude with the importation of 70 francs of English coal by the Frenchman...he then sells it in his native France for 90 francs, without any government recording it as an import/export. This means the trader profited 40 francs overall (he turned 50 francs of wine into 90 francs), and yet his government calls it a 20 franc loss. The idea he lost money for himself, or for his nations GDP, is erroneous.
The idea trade surplus or deficit is directly tied to whether the trade is "balanced" or not, is fallacious. The trade deficit is exactly balanced by the foreign exchange surplus in the private sector. The trade surplus is exactly balanced by the foreign exchange deficit. Every product traded for currency is an investment in currency. Every trade of currency for a commodity is an investment in that commodity. There basically is no such thing as "balanced trade", because every trade is balanced by virtue of the fact they are voluntary, and because of the inverse relationship of trade and foreign exchange. Trade and foreign exchange are negatively correlated.
By reductio ad absurdum, Bastiat argued that the national trade deficit was an indicator of a successful economy, rather than a failing one. Bastiat predicted that a successful, growing economy would result in greater trade deficits, and an unsuccessful, shrinking economy would result in lower trade deficits. This was later, in the 20th century, affirmed by economist Milton Friedman.
Contrary to popular misconception, trade deficits are correlated with higher growth rates, lower unemployment, and wealthier periods. The opposite is true for trade surpluses. We should embrace trade deficits, if in fact we put any creedance in them at all.
6. Immigration causes unemployment or lower wages for natives
Immigrants increase the supply of labour but they also increase Aggregate Demand in the Economy. This means that they buy more goods and create additional demand in the economy. They provide labour supply and increase labour demand.
If immigration caused unemployment why did America not have high unemployment during times of mass immigration? Because the immigrants created as many jobs as they took.
Often immigrants take jobs that native workers just don't want to do. - You won't see big multinationals cueing up to stop immigration.
Furthermore immigrants tend to be of working age. Therefore they tend to contribute more tax than receive in benefits. Without immigration US demographics would have a larger % of dependent old people.
Fears that immigrants threaten American workers are mostly misplaced. Just as working women haven't deprived men of jobs, immigrants create jobs as well as filling them--both when they spend their wages and in complementary lines of work. Mexican construction workers, for instance, create jobs for Americans selling building materials, as well as spending their wages at Wal-Mart ( WMT - news - people ).
Nor do immigrants depress wages, since they rarely compete directly with native-born Americans for jobs. On the contrary, their efforts often complement one another. A foreign nanny may enable an American doctor to return to work more quickly after childbirth, where hardworking foreign nurses and cleaners enhance her productivity. Research by Gianmarco Ottaviano of Bologna University and UC, Davis' Giovanni Peri found that the influx of foreign workers between 1990 and 2004 raised native-born Americans' wages by 2%. Only one in ten--high school dropouts--lost slightly, by 1%. All Americans benefited from higher capital returns, cheaper goods and services and faster productivity growth.
Immigrant diversity and dynamism stimulates new ideas and businesses. Migrants are a self-selected minority who tend to be young, hardworking and enterprising. Like starting a new business, migrating is risky, and hard work is needed to make it pay off. Immigrants are 30% more likely than native-born Americans to start their own business.
That number would surely be higher if we legitimized their status. People who lack formal property and business rights can't get a bank loan to start a business or ink legally enforceable contracts. Legalizing them would unleash their entrepreneurial energies and swell tax revenues.
Exceptional individuals who generate brilliant new ideas are often migrants. Instead of following conventional wisdom, they tend to see things differently, and as outsiders they are more determined to succeed. Nearly a quarter of America's Nobel laureates were born abroad. Nearly half of Silicon Valley's venture capital-funded startups were cofounded by immigrants. No one could have guessed when he arrived at age 6 as a refugee from the Soviet Union that Sergey Brin would go on to cofound Google ( GOOG - news - people ). How many potential Brins does America turn away--and at what cost?
Immigration limits not only make us less safe by encouraging people to not get background and medical checks, but are impossible to expect immigrants to follow:
As you can see, no 30 year old Mexican with a H.S. diploma, and a U.S. citizen sister already in the U.S. , is going to wait an estimated average wait time of 131 years. It's untrue to say "they need to just wait in line like everyone else", as most of these quotas and restrictions on immigration were not in effect when our ancestors came, and if they were, many would of came anyway (as in the people fleeing fascism or famine). We create criminals with the law, not the other way around. We are trying to fight free market forces in the exchange of labor and goods (the cardinal rule in free market economics), and expecting that it will remain enforcable. I won't even go into the ethical and moral implications. Natural law is a great argument here, but that's for another time.
The fact is, there has never been a negative correlation between native poverty and unemployment rates and immigration levels. At times, there has been a positive correlation. This means immigrants can be a net benefit to a society, both in terms of employment levels and wage rates for natives, but they cannot be a drag on either. Like all other free exchange, this creates more activity in the economy, not less.
7. You can't have open borders in a welfare state
Many worry that if America opened its borders now, millions would come, the welfare burden would be unsustainable and society would collapse. Yet such fears are misplaced. Most people don't want to leave home at all, let alone forever. Since 2004 three rich European countries--Britain, Ireland, and Sweden--have allowed people in eight poor eastern European countries (notably Poland) to come work there freely. All 75 million of those eastern Europeans could have moved, yet only 1 million did--and half have already gone home.
The belief that free migration is incompatible with a welfare state--asserted by Milton Friedman and recently echoed by Paul Krugman--is also incorrect. When in 2004 Poles were given the option of moving to Sweden--which has the most generous welfare state on earth--or to Britain and Ireland, which denied Poles access to any benefits until they had worked for a year, less than 1% opted for Sweden. America, too, could deny immigrants access to welfare initially.
Opening up to eastern Europeans gave Britain a big boost. Growth soared. Unemployment fell. Wages continued to rise. Newcomers paid much more in taxes than they took out in benefits and public services. After the global financial crisis plunged the economy into recession, many Poles went home rather than remain unemployed in Britain. Considering that Sweden is as rich as the U.S. and that Romania is poorer than Mexico, if open borders can work within the European Union, they can work in North America.
Allowing people to move freely is not just a matter of economic self-interest. It is also a moral imperative: Freedom of movement is a basic human right that should not be denied to people less fortunate than ourselves.
In February 2011, Reason Foundation senior policy analyst Shikha Dalmia spoke at the International Students For Liberty Conference about immigration.
Calling for open borders, Dalmia argues that immigrants create more wealth than they consume and that an increasingly globalized economy inevitably means that people, like goods and services, will be crossing borders in growing numbers. While nativists and protectionists may view such developments with alarm, allowing people to move more freely is a great advance both for human rights and economic progress.
In this video, she also addresses several mini-fallacies being spread by "libertarians" who call for closed borders (among other statist policies), like Hans Hermann Hoppe.
http://www.reason.tv/video/show/shik...ves-lecture-on
11. Hamilton was an economic genius and was just great
Another myth is that the financial genius and economic statesmanship of Alexander Hamilton saved the credit of the infant United States and established the sound financial and economic foundation essential for future growth and prosperity. Ron Chernow's hagiographic biography of Hamilton is now moving up the best seller charts, cluttering the display tables of Borders and Barnes & Noble, and taking up time on C-Span's Booknotes; but its greatest contribution will be to perpetuate the Hamilton myth for another generation.
Sumner's concise and devastating biography of that vainglorious popinjay, written over a hundred years ago, remains the best. He closely studied Hamilton's letters and writings, including the big three - his Report on the Public Credit (1790), Report on a National Bank (1790), and Report on Manufactures (1791) - and came to three conclusions: first, the New Yorker had never read Smith's Wealth of Nations (1776), the most important economic treatise written in the Anglo-American world in that period; second, he was a mercantilist, who would have been quite at home serving in the ministry of Sir Robert Walpole or Lord North; and third, Hamilton believed many things that are not true - that federal bonds were a form of capital; that a national debt was a national blessing; that the existence of banks increased the capital of the country; that foreign trade drained a country of its wealth, unless it resulted in a trade surplus; and that higher taxes were a spur to industry and necessary because Americans were lazy and enjoyed too much leisure.
The idea here was that if you taxed Americans more, they would have to work harder to maintain their standard of living, thus increasing the gross product of the country and providing the government with more revenue to spend on grand projects and military adventures. Hamilton was once stoned by a crowd of angry New York mechanics. Is it any wonder why?