DJIA, NYSE, S&P = CRASH!!!

[presence]

 

[presence]

The S&P 500 fell into the red for 2015 and closed down 1.1 percent for the year.

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Stocks extended recent losses, with the major averages all below their 200-day moving averages.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 358 points, accelerating losses in the close, with Merck and Disney leading all blue chips lower. The index closed below 17,000 for the first time since Oct. 29, 2014, and is off more than 4.5 percent for the year so far.

The Nasdaq Composite closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 17, 2014. The index lost 2.8 percent to below 4,900

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The Russell 2000 traded below its 200-day moving average and has closed below it since Tuesday.

Overseas, stocks ended lower and pressured U.S. equities. European stocks closed down about 2 percent as concerns about China, the Federal Reserve weighed.


The Shanghai Composite plunged 3.4 percent as investors failed to gain confidence in government support measures.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/us-stocks-open-lower-as-oil-slide-growth-concerns-weigh.html



its coming

 

[presence]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-dow-theory-sell-signal-is-upon-us-2015-08-20

[h=1]The Dow Theory just flashed a ‘sell’ signal [/h]
Published: Aug 20, 2015 5:17 p.m. ET














[h=2]The Dow Industrials join the Transports in breaking January lows
[/h]

By
[h=3]MarkHulbert[/h] Columnist




CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The venerable Dow Theory, the oldest stock market timing system that remains in widespread use today, flashed a “sell” signal at Thursday’s close.
The Dow Theory was introduced gradually over the first three decades of the 20th century in editorials in The Wall Street Journal by its editor at the time, William Peter Hamilton. The three preconditions for a “sell” signal that he set out are:

• . Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average must undergo a significant correction from joint new highs.
• . In their subsequent significant rally attempt following that correction, either one or both of those Dow averages must fail to rise above their pre-correction highs.
• . Both averages must then drop below their respective correction lows.

As I’ve written before, the first two of these three preconditions were met earlier this year. Following their sharp declines in January, as you can see from the accompanying chart, the Dow Transports failed to join the Dow Industrials in rising to new highs.
That situation could have been resolved bullishly if the Dow Transports DJT, -2.50% had surpassed its previous high. That didn’t happen, and instead the third and final hurdle of a Dow Theory “sell” signal was generated at Thursday’s close when it broke under the low identified in step 1, which was 17,164.95.
But it wasn’t even close: The Dow cleared that hurdle with 174 points to spare.
Not all Dow Theorists are turning bearish, however. Jack Schannep, editor of TheDowTheory.com, is holding his fire, even though he acknowledges that the original version of the Dow Theory has indeed emitted a “sell” signal. But he has developed a modified version that he believes is superior, and that version focuses on the S&P 500 in addition to the two Dow averages.
The S&P 500 has been stronger than either the Dow Industrials or the Dow Transports. In fact, even after Thursday’s rout, the S&P 500 remains 2.2% above its January closing low of 1,992.67. Schannep’s version of the Dow Theory, therefore, won’t generate a “sell” signal until the S&P 500 closes below that level.
That could happen quite soon, if the followers of the original Dow Theory are correct.

 

[presence]

[h=1]Nasdaq Breaks Below Key Technical Support, Plunges Most In 10 Months[/h]
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/20/2015 12:56 -0400

• NASDAQ

inShare8​

The Nasdaq has dropped almost 3.5% in the last 3 days - the biggest drop since October 2014 collapse. This drop has pushed the all-important tech high-flyer back below its 200-day moving average for the first time since Oct 10th... just before Bullard unleashed the threat of QE4...

 

[presence]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/markets-ride-wave-of-global-meltdown-fears.html

[h=2]Market Insider with Patti Domm[/h] [h=1]Markets ride wave of global meltdown fears[/h] Patti Domm | @pattidomm

6 Hours AgoCNBC.com
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COMMENTSJoin the Discussion


<p>Closing Bell Exchange: Market&#039;s perfect storm</p> <p>Discussing Thursday&#039;s market selloff, and what investors are missing, with Larry Glazer, Mayflower Advisors; Keith Bliss, Cuttone &amp; Company; and CNBC&#039;s Rick Santelli. </p>
Stocks were slammed Thursday in the worst trading day in 18 months, and investors sought safety in bonds, fearing a meltdown in emerging markets currencies and commodities is signaling a broader global malaise.
The moves are occurring in a late summer vacuum, void of news but full of speculation and even a bit of superstition, as some traders try to liken the latest EM currency rout to the Asian collapse in the late 1990s. And some are noting, too, that the selloff in stocks is happening just in time for September, historically the worst month for stocks.
Some traders say the unsettled markets may have more to do with speculation about whether the Fed will raise interest rates soon, further damaging emerging markets, and whether there's something direr brewing in China's weakness that will result in a deflationary spiral around the world. The 10-year Treasury yield edging frighteningly close to 2 percent, commodities were mixed, with U.S. crude futures slightly higher, and gold rallying more than 2 percent.
Read MoreFed 'approaching' hike conditions: Minutes



"It hasn't been a day about the data or anything more fundamental for the U.S., outside of a continuation of the rethinking of the Fed. I think that the Fed minutes have gotten us into questioning the assumption of a September rate hike. We've seen that largely priced out of the market. We've seen global equities under pressure, as well as domestic equities under pressure. With risk assets coming off, there's been a relative flight to quality," said Ian Lyngen, senior Treasury strategist at CRT Capital.

Strategists said that while talk touched on the Asian currency crisis of 1997 and the 1998 collapse of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund, that was a different era and markets are far from experiencing what led to that type of meltdown and calamity. At the time, the currencies of emerging markets in Asia were pegged to the dollar and those countries were saddled with dollar-denominated debt.

"You don't have those same preconditions where everyone was on one side of the market, and everyone was feeling you've got to head to the doors now," said William Lee, head of North America economics at Citigroup. "Without that kind of disorderliness, the Fed will keep its nose to the grindstone." He still expects the Fed to raise rates in September and believes the market response to the minutes has been wrong.
Traders around the street are watching a continued collapse of currencies in the emerging world, with some like the Turkish lira, Thai baht, Brazil's real and Malaysian ringgit all down more 8 percent in the last month. The worst performer is the Russian ruble, down 17 percent. Those currencies have been moving lower against the dollar, as the greenback firms on the idea that the Fed is moving toward higher interest rates.

Bankim Chadha, global strategist at Deutsche Bank, also agrees current market conditions are nothing like the late 1990s. "The most important difference is we're in 2015 and EM basically peaked in 2010. It's basically coming on the five-year anniversary, so it's massively underperformed already. You have to keep in mind that most of the crises in the past have come from unhedged currency exposure. If there is a crisis, it would be a crisis of exhaustion not because someone has unhedged currency exposure," he said.
The S&P 500 fell 2.1 percent to 2035, wiping out what was left of its 2015 gains, and the 10-year Treasury yield was around 2.07 percent. The 2-year yield was slightly higher, holding its own at 0.66 percent. That is the duration that most reflects the potential for Fed easing. Futures, however, signaled little chance the Fed would raise rates in September and traders put the highest odds on a first rate hike in January.

"I think the market reaction is understandable and is in the right direction, but I think it's overdone," said Michael Hanson, senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The rates market is extrapolating a couple of things. Everything that could go wrong in the U.S. economy and the world economy is somewhat priced in to the rates market. There's lots of medium-term pessimism embedded there." He said the equity market has been nowhere near as pessimistic.
"I think the rates market is just barely pricing in one hike this year, and the forward path of rates that's implied in the futures market ... is the market saying to the Fed: 'We don't think you're going to be able to hike as fast as you're saying,' " said Hanson.

As investors moved to the safety of Treasurys, they continued to unload high-yield corporate bonds Thursday, and the most pain was in energy. As of Wednesday afternoon, energy high-yield debt was 40 basis points wider than it was Friday, compared to 16 basis points widening in the same time frame for high yield overall, said one trader.

Chadha said the commodities markets are in a steep correction but he does not see it is a signal for global recession, and not all emerging markets are impacted by it. Strategists say Chinese demand is also a factor for commodities and oil, in particular, is affected by oversupply.
"Mostly it's a big valuation issue. They've been falling since late 2011, 2012. I don't think there's anything new here. I would tend to characterize what is going on as a series of jitters about global growth," he said.
Not all emerging markets are being impacted equally, either. "There's a polar split here. It's negative for all of the commodity producers and exporters. Latin America, Brazil, Chile, Russia and Asia, Malaysia to some extent. In EM Asia, most of them are importers. China's an importer, so it's positive. It's not negative," he said.
The Fed Wednesday released minutes from its last meeting that the markets took as dovish. The minutes reflected that the Fed was still concerned about inflation, and that put market focus on the commodities sell off, particularly oil. The minutes also mentioned China, and that fed worries that China's slowdown is going to hurt other economies around the world as well as drive commodities prices even lower.
"A bit of volatility is no problem, but if we have a disorderly market, meaning markets are in free fall that's when the Fed will step in and say, 'Wait. In those types of disorderly conditions we're not going to move,' " said Lee. "I think the confusion is, are we in a free fall or are we just seeing volatility? We think it's volatility," said Lee.
The Fed noted that a material slowdown in Chinese would potentially create risk for the U.S. economy, but strategists say at this point there's no sign of it. Lee said there would be problems if China chills the economies of other Asian countries, which account for about 25 percent of U.S. trade.
"From the Fed 's view if the real risk is a hard landing, a significant growth slowdown. The Chinese taking action to loosen their currency peg, to help their exports actually takes a significant risk off the table. If the Chinese are taking action to mitigate risks that you're going to see a hard landing or significant slowdown," Hanson said.
The Fed did change its tune about financial stability risks, Lee said. In the minutes it said: "Participants also noted the challenges associated with identifying newly emerging risks as well as the implications for monetary policy of a hypothetical future situation in which financial imbalances were increasing."

Lee said the mention of potential future risks is a reason for the Fed to move, and it's a hawkish message.
Chadha says the Fed should move because the uncertainty has sent emerging markets lower.
"It's waiting so long. It's a cloud that has basically hung over emerging markets, and the cloud is basically still there. EM has suffered significantly," Chadha said.

 

[staerker]

Why not just give them the all digital currency they want? Seems to me that bitcoin and similar iterations are nothing more than an nwo computer credit testbed.

Did you see non-intrinsic value metals react to the stock market, oil and dollar moves today?

Me too. But I don't think that was staerkler's premise so I objected.

My comment wasn't to disparage commodities with no "intrinsic" value, but more of a hit on the term "intrinsic" itself. The market decides the true value.

And there are many reasons the market has decided cryptocurrencies have value. But the nwo part would not surprise me.

 

[presence]

Nasdaq 100 falls below 200-day moving average for first time in 10 months
MarketWatch‎ - 21 mins ago

 

[presence]

STOCKS GET CRUSHED: Here's what you need to know
Business Insider-17 hours ago

Wall St. tumbles on global slowdown concern
Reuters-17 hours ago

U.S. Stocks See Fresh Pain
Nasdaq-24 minutes ago

Dow Falls 8% From All-Time High on China Slowdown
TheStreet.com-24 minutes ago

By end of September:

8%++ devaluation of May 2015 high; <1950 S&P <16850 DOW


[]


GTFO now

 

[Traditionalist]

I pulled out of the market this week, I managed to break even. If I had stayed in I would have lost a ton. This is getting extremely scary. Waiting for a point to jump back in but I'd be cautious of false hope.

 

[chronicaust]

Damn, well that's what happens when you try to print your way out of a recession. Quitting that good ole dope is harder than you thought? Maybe you should have stayed sober.

 

[presence]

US open: Dow plunges over 150 points as selloff continues
32 minutes ago


S&P below 2K, Dow falls more than 325 points as growth concerns weigh
1 Min Ago

By end of September:

8%++ devaluation of May 2015 high; <1950 S&P <16850 DOW


[]


GTFO now

18 month outlook:

Nothing above May highs;
30%++ cumulative devaluation
<1490 S&P <12800 DOW

 

[thoughtomator]

The big one is coming soon. This is pre-shock phase, count on a lot of volatility in the near term followed by a massive drop, which could be as soon as this week or as far out as December.

 

[presence]

The big one is coming soon. This is pre-shock phase, count on a lot of volatility in the near term followed by a massive drop, which could be as soon as this week or as far out as December.

 

[Traditionalist]

This is bad. I'm officially out of the market completely today. You'd have to be suicidal to jump back in now. I see other investors on messageboards jumping in, trying to arbitrarily guess that this is the "bottom." They might be right, but that's a risky game. More like gambling than investing. I'm waiting this thing out for at least a month. Might be time to buy some more gold?

 

[Madison320]

I'm expecting to hear some sort of statement or interview with a Fed official that a rate hike is off the table for September. If that doesn't work they'll be more direct and specifically tell us there won't be a rate hike this year. If that doesn't work get ready for QE4. I don't know if this is the air finally coming out of the QE bubble or just a small leak but we'll see.

 

[Zippyjuan]

We had a similar week last year.

 

[Zippyjuan]

I'm expecting to hear some sort of statement or interview with a Fed official that a rate hike is off the table for September. If that doesn't work they'll be more direct and specifically tell us there won't be a rate hike this year. If that doesn't work get ready for QE4. I don't know if this is the air finally coming out of the QE bubble or just a small leak but we'll see.

Fed won't meet until September 16- 17th. You likely won't hear anything either way before then.

 

[jllundqu]

Interesting to watch the emotional reactions from those in the market.

 

[Zippyjuan]

This is bad. I'm officially out of the market completely today. You'd have to be suicidal to jump back in now. I see other investors on messageboards jumping in, trying to arbitrarily guess that this is the "bottom." They might be right, but that's a risky game. More like gambling than investing. I'm waiting this thing out for at least a month. Might be time to buy some more gold?

People who bail out on dips tend to lose money. They miss the recovery cycle where it goes back up and don't get back in again (if they do) until after a good run of gains (which means gains are tougher after that). If you want to invest in something, it should be more "buy and hold" unless you need the cash. Jumping around when things get tough eats into your returns. Dips are often better to be buying than selling. If you had bought in March, 2008 when the DOW had fallen to about 6500, you would have 1.6 times the money (160% gain). If you waited until 2010, DOW was around 10000 and you would have 70% more (less than half the return). If you bought gold in 2010, you would be just about even (zero percent gain).

 

[thoughtomator]

Fed won't meet until September 16- 17th. You likely won't hear anything either way before then.

I suggest you put everything you have into the markets, it's got to bounce... right? BTFD has worked for years, nothing can go wrong, right? It's like free money!