DJIA, NYSE, S&P = CRASH!!!

[fatjohn]

And amazon and facebook are hardly "the only companies" to report good earnings. It's impossible to predict the future, but it's easy to see some folks' obsession/fascination with gloom and doom...

I'll offer a counter narrative. The falling prices of oil, particularly that of diesel and natural gas is going to put a lid on wholesale price increases, and with no evidence of a wage/cost spiral, the fed will be able to forgo the expected early fall interest rate hike. That should put a decent floor on equity prices for the fourth quarter...

Am I right, I DONT KNOW, and neither do the people who say they do.

Ok well, I took your point and looked to it as objectively as I could. The earnings from the dow 30: 11 Good, 13 Bad, 3 Mixed and 3 TBD.

Bad:
MMM: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-waver-as-traders-eye-earnings-reports-1437654165
AMEX: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-waver-as-traders-eye-earnings-reports-1437654165
CAT: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-waver-as-traders-eye-earnings-reports-1437654165
AAPL: http://www.i4u.com/2015/07/93463/reasons-why-apple-stock-tanked-7-after-q3-earnings-call
Chevron: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/185...ismal-results-microsofts-windows-10-impresses
Exxon: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/185...ismal-results-microsofts-windows-10-impresses
DIS: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ats-estimates-as-film-studio-parks-post-gains
DD: http://www.thestreet.com/story/1323...following-earnings-release-trims-outlook.html
GS: http://www.forbes.com/sites/antoine...45-billion-provision-for-mortgage-litigation/
IBM: http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/ibm-shares-down-earnings/
P&G: http://www.thestreet.com/story/1323...-mixed-earnings-results-jim-cramers-take.html
United Technologies: http://www.wsj.com/articles/united-...ll-on-china-weakness-strong-dollar-1437479479
Verizon: http://www.thestreet.com/story/1322...ck-retreating-following-earnings-results.html

Mixed:
MacDonalds: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/23/mcdonalds-delivers-quarterly-earnings.html
Merck: http://moneymorning.com/2015/07/28/...res-in-opposite-directions-nyse-pfe-nyse-mrk/
MSFT: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/21/microsoft-earnings-62-cents-a-share-vs-expected-eps-of-56-cents.html

Good:
BA: http://uk.businessinsider.com/boeing-q2-earnings-2015-7?r=US&IR=T
KO: http://uk.businessinsider.com/coca-cola-q2-earnings-2015-7?r=US&IR=T
GE: http://www.seattlepi.com/business/article/GE-reports-2Q-loss-6390259.php
Intel: http://uk.businessinsider.com/intel-earnings-q2-2015-2015-7?r=US&IR=T
Johnson&Johnson: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/14/johnson-johnson-posts-earnings-of-171-a-share-vs-168-expected.html
JPM: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/14/jpmorgan-chase-earnings-beat-expectations.html
Pfizer: http://moneymorning.com/2015/07/28/...res-in-opposite-directions-nyse-pfe-nyse-mrk/
Nike: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/16/nike-inc-and-growth-just-doing-it.aspx
Travelers: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/21/travelers-cos-inc-results-idUSL3N1013XO20150721
United health: http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/07/16/unitedhealth-tops-street-2q-forecasts
Visa: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/visa-shares-rally-on-strong-results-2015-07-23

TDB: CISCO, Home Depot, Walmart

 

[Dianne]

This was on Drudge this morning. I don't know if this Stockman is any good or not.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/stocks-are-a-disaster-waiting-to-happen-stockman.html

Stocks are a 'disaster waiting to happen': Stockman

 

[TheCount]

Presence, Dianne, devil21: Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?

 

[devil21]

Presence, Dianne, devil21: Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?

Who said it would be over once September is over? I can't speak for them but a stock crash is a drawn out decline that's not started and completed in a couple weeks. Circuit breakers, PPT intervention, etc ensure it is a managed process. 2008 showed how it works. Now we have "market glitches" and "hackers" to look forward to, as well.

 

[presence]

http://www.ft.com/fastft/374511/dow-hits-dreaded-death-cross-chart

Dow Jones hits 'death cross'

8 hours ago

• URL
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It's considered an ominous signal for US equity investors who rely on technical indicators to shape their trading.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday hit its so-called 'death cross' - a rather forbidding term for the moment when the index's 50-day moving average slides below its 200-day moving average, Kadhim Shubber reports in New York.
On Tuesday, the US blue-chip index slipped roughly 1.2 per cent, erasing Monday's 1.2 per cent gain. The drop was led by declines in Apple, Goldman Sachs and Chevron shares.
The technical phenomenon is viewed by some as a sell-signal, ushering in further pressure on prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is made up of just 30 stocks, has fallen 2 per cent since the year began and is 4.6 per cent below its May peak.
The index has been buffeted by concerns over a slowdown in China along with sliding commodity prices.
The crossing of the 50-day moving average over the 200-day moving average suggests an increase in negative momentum.
But while the death cross has appeal for fans of technical analysis, there's a fair bit of scepticism about how useful it is for predicting future price moves.
Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist of Raymond James, says:

The track record of the death cross is dubious... Yes, it worked in 2007, but our interpretation of Dow Theory also sounded a sell signal on November 21, 2007.
​

Indeed, the S&P 500 has risen around 60 per cent since warnings of an "ultimate death cross" in July 2012.

MarketsDow Jones Industrial AverageUS

 

[TheCount]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-11/dow-death-cross-es-first-time-4-years

The last time this happened, the dow dropped 1300 points (which zerohedge helpfully highlights), recovered within two months (not highlighted), and then went on a four year, 7000 point bull run (zerohedge left that part out of their article).

 

[Zippyjuan]

Up 240 points yesterday. Down 212 points today. Still up for the week. Decline did not continue into the afternoon session. So far, it is a wash and not a crash.

As the article above notes:

But while the death cross has appeal for fans of technical analysis, there's a fair bit of scepticism about how useful it is for predicting future price moves.
Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist of Raymond James, says:

The track record of the death cross is dubious... Yes, it worked in 2007, but our interpretation of Dow Theory also sounded a sell signal on November 21, 2007.

Indeed, the S&P 500 has risen around 60 per cent since warnings of an "ultimate death cross" in July 2012.

 

[presence]

DOOM

The Dow's Fast and Wild Swings Are Giving Traders a Headache

Lu Wang Joseph Ciolli

August 12, 2015 — 12:00 AM EDT Updated on August 12, 2015 — 10:32 AM EDT
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Investors Seek Portfolio Defense From China Volatility



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The time it takes to win and lose money in the U.S. stock market has gotten noticeably shorter of late.
Losses spurred by China’s currency devaluation sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down as much as 263 points Tuesday, at one point eclipsing what had been the biggest rally in three months the day before. It fell another 254.21 points to 17,148.63 today at 10:31 a.m.
In the broader market, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had the biggest reversal since last October’s selloff, erasing three-quarters of Monday’s gain -- an advance that itself had wiped out the previous week’s decline.
Already locked in its tightest trading range on record, U.S. investors are watching as rallies and retreats alternate with uncommon speed. This is happening in a market that has gone virtually nowhere in seven months even as the average daily swing widened almost 20 percent from a year ago.
“What you make one day, you seem to lose the next,” said Rick Fier, director of equity trading at Conifer Securities LLC in New York. “The reality is everyone is playing the range, buying at the bottom and shorting at the top.”
U.S. stocks succumbed to global economic concerns Tuesday after China’s currency devaluation sparked speculation that the world’s second-largest economy is headed for a deeper slowdown. The Dow dropped 1.2 percent as large companies such as Apple Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. led the retreat.
The S&P 500 slipped 1 percent, marking a turnaround from Monday, when Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s acquisition of Precision Castparts Corp. and rising commodities fueled an equity rally. The back-to-back reversal of at least 1 percent was the biggest since Oct. 8.
Stocks are heading for the biggest two-day decline since January, with the S&P 500 sinking 1.3 percent Wednesday.
‘Difficult’

After tripling in prices over six years, U.S. stocks have run out of gas and sit roughly where they were at the start of the year. The S&P 500 has crossed its average price in the past 50 days a total of 35 times in 2015, already exceeding any full calendar year in history, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Strategas Research Partners.
“For a tactical manager, it’s been a difficult short-term run,” Frank Ingarra, head trader at Greenwich, Connecticut-based NorthCoast Asset Management LLC, said by phone. NorthCoast has $3 billion under management. “There are not a lot of positive catalysts to break us out of the top of the range, and there’s not a lot of bad news to break us out of the bottom. We’re trying to be insightful and not over-trade.”
While the benchmark index is about 2 percent from its all-time high in May, volatility is ramping up. The S&P 500’s daily move has averaged 0.6 percent this year, 18 percent higher than the same period in 2014, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Investors should anticipate more market turbulence because China’s currency move may complicate the Federal Reserve’s timetable for raising interest rates, according to Keith Cataldo, director of trading at Cobleskill, New York-based Fenimore Asset Management, which oversees $2.1 billion.



“Sentiment is very skittish at this point,”

Cataldo said. “I don’t know anybody is going to be able to properly predict where the market is going to be at the end of the year.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d-nausea-with-trading-range-turning-into-vise

 

[presence]

Dow Jones Today Slumps 124 Points
As Currency War Fears Accelerate


https://moneymorning.com/2015/08/12...-124-points-as-currency-war-fears-accelerate/


Surprise China devaluation marks escalation of currency war


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b8aa542a-4006-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html#axzz3idYHkj10

Stock markets and currencies have all reacted negatively to the news that China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, is allowing the yuan to trade weaker thereby ending a de-facto shadowing of the US dollar.

http://www.scmp.com/business/market...al-regional-stocks-currencies-hit-chinas-yuan

 

[presence]

 

[dannno]

Presence, Dianne, devil21: Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?

You'll know it when you see it.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Whoh! Grab your hats for that crash! Run for the exits! Did you see how much the DOW fell today? (0.33 points or 0.0%).

 

[Zippyjuan]

You'll know it when you see it.

There isn't a solid definition but generally a drop of ten percent or more in a short period of time would be considered a crash. In this case, a 1,750 point drop in the DOW. Lower drops are considered "corrections".

Never a cloudy day?

 

[presence]

Presence, []Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?

18300 DOW and 2130 S&P were May 2015 highs.


By end of September:

8%++ devaluation of May 2015 high; <1950 S&P <16850 DOW


18 month outlook:

Nothing above May highs; 30%++ cumulative devaluation <1490 S&P <12800 DOW

global economies in state of panic and default, china engaging in currency war tactics, impending death cross has turned to death cross, GTFO now

 

[devil21]

Down .33%, you say? Another one of those pesky 'trigger' numbers....

 

[Dianne]

Presence, Dianne, devil21: Could you define crash for us so that we will be able to say if it did or did not happen once September is over?

Don't ask me, I have never been in the stock market. I just posted an article I found on Drudge, for those of you who do invest. I didn't even understand it, lol.

 

[presence]

Excellent article here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...ars-dow-roundtrips-700-points-giant-stop-hunt

 

[Zippyjuan]

Stock Market Crash Watch Day 3- DOW closes day up 5.74 points.

 

[TheCount]

18300 DOW and 2130 S&P were May 2015 highs.


By end of September:

8%++ devaluation of May 2015 high; <1950 S&P <16850 DOW


18 month outlook:

Nothing above May highs; 30%++ cumulative devaluation <1490 S&P <12800 DOW

I think it's a bit strange that you're including a 1% drop that has already occurred, but I applaud your willingness to forecast.

 

[presence]

I think it's a bit strange that you're including a 1% drop that has already occurred, but I applaud your willingness to forecast.

As someone mentioned earlier usually you talk about crashes in terms of devaluation from the all time high; 10% the common benchmark for a mini crash that most long term retail investors seek to avoid.