Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

[RonZeplin]

Hillary not president, GOP not winning either

Polls said that Hillary would win, they were wrong.

Polls say that Republicans will win. If we learn from past polling results, it's clear that the GOP will lose.

Polling results show that, polls are wrong.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Polls said that Hillary would win, they were wrong.

Polls say that Republicans will win. If we learn from past polling results, it's clear that the GOP will lose.

Polling results show that, polls are wrong.

Polls tend to be skewed in favor of the left.

 

[timosman]

Polls tend to be skewed in favor of the left.

Reality has a liberal bias.

 

[thoughtomator]

Polls tend to be skewed in favor of the left.

I'd wager 15-20% of respondents to your average media poll have to answer in Spanish.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Reality has a liberal bias.

Actually reality tends to be conservative and leave the pollsters looking stupid.

 

[eleganz]

I wonder how red the political map would be if illegal aliens weren't voting.

 

[Philhelm]

I wonder how red the political map would be if illegal aliens weren't voting.

It would look like a slaughtered pig.

 

[Swordsmyth]

[h=1]The "Walk Away" movement[/h]

 

[Swordsmyth]

The Washington Post found that most Americans disagree with the position pushed by a federal judge in California demanding that the Trump administration quickly release migrants with children who have entered the country illegally and allow the family to stay until a future hearing — the illegal immigration-promoting "catch and release" policy of the Obama administration.

Unfortunately for the #AbolishICE Democrats, the Post found "broad support" not for the Democrats' preferred policy, but for Trump's approach:

Despite the legal setback, the Post-Schar School poll shows broad support for the policy Trump administration lawyers pushed for, including among a wide range of political groups. Keeping immigrant families in detention rather than releasing them garners support from 74 percent of Republicans and 60 percent of independents. Democrats — 89 percent of whom disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration — are almost evenly split on the question, with 49 percent saying families should be detained, while 50 percent say they should be temporarily released.
There is little gender gap on the question, with 59 percent of men and 57 percent of women preferring to detain immigrant families together until their case is resolved. That compares with child-parent separations, about which women were 25 percentage points more likely than men to say they “strongly opposed” (65 percent vs. 40 percent).
​

As Ed Morrissey points out, that majority support is also consistent in one particularly important demographic this year: "battleground" voters, who support it 64/35. It's also supported by non-battleground voters 60/35.

While a plurality of Hispanics (45/50) disagree with Trump's policy, a plurality of African-Americans (48/45) support it.
Meanwhile, the polling data for the unofficial 2018 Democrat slogan is not looking good at all. Here's what a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll learned:

Only 1 in 4 voters in the poll, 25 percent, believe the federal government should get rid of ICE. The majority, 54 percent, think the government should keep ICE. Twenty-one percent of voters are undecided.
But a plurality of Democratic voters do support abolishing ICE, the poll shows. Among Democrats, 43 percent say the government should get rid of ICE, while only 34 percent say it should keep ICE. Majorities of Republicans (79 percent) and independents (54 percent) want the government to keep ICE.

​

More at: https://www.dailywire.com/news/3305...gn=dailywire.com&utm_term=68738&utm_content=1

 

[Swordsmyth]

Republican National Committee fundraising is fiery hot: the RNC has now raised $213 million for the 2017-2018 election cycle, at least $100 million more than the Democratic National Committee raised during the same time period.
The RNC raised $13.9 million in June, a record for June in a non-presidential year, as The Washington Free Beacon reports. In addition, the RNC has no debt and $50.7 million cash on hand, quintupling the cash on hand held by the DNC.
RNC chair Ronna McDaniel asserted, "What I see when I travel the country is that Americans continue to be enthusiastic about President Trump and the Republican agenda. That enthusiasm has allowed for me to grow our war chest and invest it into what has become the biggest ground game in our Party’s history."

More at: https://www.dailywire.com/news/3319...gn=dailywire.com&utm_term=68731&utm_content=1

 

[Swordsmyth]

Republicans defending seats in some of the most competitive House races hold a financial advantage over Democratic challengers as the campaign for control of Congress enters a crucial phase, a Bloomberg tabulation of Federal Election Commission reports shows.
Democrats trying to wrest control of the House in November are running up against the power of incumbency and one of the main pitfalls of the surge of party enthusiasm in the first midterm of Donald Trump’s presidency: multicandidate primaries that splintered donors and drained campaign accounts.
Republicans had more cash-on-hand in 13 of 18 congressional districts where primaries have been held and that are rated as general election tossups by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The tabulation was based on second-quarter reports that were due this week.
GOP candidates in the 18 districts collectively had $26.6 million in their bank accounts at the end of June, while Democrats have $16 million. A positive for the Democrats: they collectively out-raised the Republicans in those districts during the period, $18.4 million to $10.5 million. The second-quarter surge brought Democrats to parity in the districts -- they’ve raised $40.4 million so far in the cycle, compared to $40.2 million for Republicans.
In 12 of the 13 districts where the GOP has a cash-on-hand advantage, a Republican incumbent is running. Most of them had little or no opposition in their primary elections, meaning they could focus on fundraising and conserve resources.
While both parties will continue raising money right up to the election, the current Republican advantage will allow some GOP candidates to define their Democratic opponents in unflattering ways and steer the agenda during the earliest phase of the general election campaign.


On the House side, the top super-political action committee backing Republican efforts to hold onto the House majority had $71.4 million in the bank at the end of June. The Congressional Leadership Fund balance compares to $16.7 million in the bank as of the end of May for the House Majority PAC, which backs Democrats and must report its latest totals by Friday.
Party committees, like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee will also play major roles and will file updated reports no later than Friday. The DCCC had a $60.6 million balance at the end of May, while the NRCC had $60.9 million.


The GOP money advantage is illustrated in Maine’s mostly rural 2nd District, where three Democrats competed in a June 12 primary to oppose Republican Representative Bruce Poliquin. The incumbent finished June with a roughly $2.3 million bank-balance advantage over Democratic challenger Jared Golden, a state legislator and Marine Corps veteran.
The cost of competitive Democratic primaries can also be seen in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, where incumbent Representative Andy Barr had almost $2.8 million in his campaign chest at the end of June. His challenger, former Marine Corps fighter pilot Amy McGrath, ended the quarter with roughly $2 million less.
McGrath won a Democratic primary that included five other candidates, while Barr had only token opposition in his primary. She spent $1.1 million during the second quarter, while his expenditures totaled $367,106.
[h=3]Tossup races with largest cash-on-hand differences[/h]

[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]District[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Republican[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Democrat[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Difference[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]More in bank[/TD]

[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]ME-02[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Bruce Poliquin[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Jared Golden[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-number"]$2,318,932[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Republican[/TD]

[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]KY-06 [/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Andy Barr [/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Amy McGrath [/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-number"]$2,033,820 [/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Republican[/TD]

[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]IL-06[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Peter Roskam[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Sean Casten[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-number"]$1,690,807[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Republican[/TD]

[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]CA-10[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Jeff Denham[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Josh Harder[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-number"]$1,335,404[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Republican[/TD]

[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]TX-32[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Pete Sessions[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Colin Allred[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-number"]$931,103[/TD]
[TD="class: news-rsf-table-string"]Republican[/TD]

Source: Federal Election Commission data compiled by Bloomberg



Candidates with bigger bank balances have more flexibility as Election Day nears and can afford robust television campaigns and canvassing operations.
"Every candidate wants to be the one with the most money in the bank," said Michael Beckel, research director at Issue One, which advocates for tighter limits on political giving. "If you have more money, you have more choices."

More at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-s-house-races?cmpId=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo

 

[eleganz]

Beto O Rourke out raised Ted Cruz but its going to be such a waste of money. If the dems were smart, Beto would suspend his campaign and help winnable races.

They're all out for themselves and its a weak point that can and should be exposed.

 

[Swordsmyth]

There's just one problem with the Democrats' unending focus on Russia and the media's constant collusion chatter: few Americans care, because - drumroll - they have real lives in the real economy to worry about.
As the latest survey from Gallup shows: when asked what the most important problem facing the nation is, Russia did not even warrant a 1% - and worse still, it is declining in importance from there.

Source: Gallup
As David Sirota noted, "Gallup recently did a poll of what Americans say is the most important problem facing the country. One finding: the percentage of Americans saying “Situation with Russia” is the most important problem is literally too small to represent with a number. "
So with all that energy expended on pinning the Russia collusion tail on Trump's campaign donkey, let alone former FBI Director Comey's insistence that 'anyone voting Republican is anti-American', we are reminded of the blinkered view of the world so many suffer from and what Steve Bannon said yesterday at CNBC's "Delivering Alpha" conference: The Democrats abandoned the American worker.

The meddling was on the margin, and the Democrats need to accept this. The collusion - they haven't found one shred of evidence.
The Democrats have yet to embrace why they lost...[they] have wanted a do-over since 2:30 am on Nov. 9 - and they've lied and they've bitched and in November they'll get their do-over...but on November 6, the deplorables will be plenty jacked up.
​

But in November, voters will render their decision, and whatever they decide it'll be on Trump's platform of economic nationalism, which has boosted economic growth and created jobs.

"It's an up or down vote, the economy, the tax cuts the whole package. I think the Fed's going to say in the second quarter it's at 4%...because of economic nationalism."
​

So, will The Left find policies to run on that are not "socialism"? and are not "not Trump"?

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...-americans-really-care-about-situation-russia

 

[eleganz]

Dems have a +8 advantage on RCP average right now. Trump is gonna hurt a little on Russia but his biggest vulnerability right now is the tariffs, which I suppose he is attempting to offset by his phase 2 tax cuts.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Democratic voter registrations are falling in Florida ahead of what is supposed to be a blue wave midterm election, according to records the state published Monday.
Numbers show that Democratic Party registrations have fallen about 2 percentage points since the 2016 elections. Republican numbers, meanwhile, have held steady at 35 percent, while no-party registrations have increased about 3 points, the data shows. Independents are surging in Florida.
The situation doesn’t look much better for Democrats on the national stage.
Their advantage over Republicans in the generic ballot continues to tumble, dipping from a 10-point advantage Democrats held during May to just 4 points in June, according to a June 7 NBC News poll.

More at: https://thepoliticalinsider.com/flo...nsider.com&utm_term=68731&utm_content=2278066

 

[Jamesiv1]

Back in 1988 I predicted the Dems would get soundly hammered in the 2018 mid-terms.

I stand by that prediction.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Democratic voter registrations are falling in Florida ahead of what is supposed to be a blue wave midterm election, according to records the state published Monday.
Numbers show that Democratic Party registrations have fallen about 2 percentage points since the 2016 elections. Republican numbers, meanwhile, have held steady at 35 percent, while no-party registrations have increased about 3 points, the data shows. Independents are surging in Florida.
The situation doesn’t look much better for Democrats on the national stage.
Their advantage over Republicans in the generic ballot continues to tumble, dipping from a 10-point advantage Democrats held during May to just 4 points in June, according to a June 7 NBC News poll.

More at: https://thepoliticalinsider.com/flo...nsider.com&utm_term=68731&utm_content=2278066

From that link:

Democrats enjoy a 10-point advantage on congressional preference, with 50 percent of registered voters wanting a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 40 percent who want a GOP-controlled one.

Democrats held a 7-point edge on this question back in April, 47 percent to 40 percent.

 

[Danke]

Back in 1988 I predicted the Dems would get soundly hammered in the 2018 mid-terms.

I stand by that prediction.

I remember that.

 

[Swordsmyth]

From that link:

They will need more than that, their voters are concentrated in big cities.

 

[Jamesiv1]

I remember that.

And you know where you were then,
Girls were girls and men were men,
Mister we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again,
Didn't need no welfare states
Everybody pulled his weight,
Gee our old Lasalle ran great,
Those were the days.