Swordsmyth
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A tracking poll sets up a panel of thousands of voters and returns to them repeatedly over months. That lets pollsters discern the factors driving voter decisions — and gauge how attitudes change as the campaign wears on. In 2016, only two major surveys’ final predictions foresaw a Trump victory. Both of them — from the LA Times/USC and IBD/TIPP — were tracking polls.
“It gives us a great advantage in trying to explain the meaning of the poll results,” Salvanto said.
This year, the CBS Battleground Tracker “is concentrating on the districts that we think will make a difference,” he said. “Remember, in a midterm, you have to watch each congressional seat — don’t pay attention to national numbers.”
Just as a presidential race is not a national contest but a collection of 51 separate elections (one for each state and for the District of Columbia), November’s midterm involves elections for 435 House districts and 35 Senate seats. The collective result will determine which party gains enough seats to control each congressional chamber.
“For pollsters, midterms are the most interesting and difficult challenge we face,” Salvanto said.
Not only must they consider 470 unique races, “there’s never more than a third or at best 40 percent turnout in midterm elections,” he noted. “So we’re looking for a subsample of a subsample” of voters.
For 2018, the CBS News Battleground Tracker has gathered a panel of nearly 5,700 registered voters. Almost all of them live in the 50 to 60 districts that might switch from Republican to Democrat, or vice versa, in November — the only races that matter, when it comes to control of Congress.
Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. “In this era, a district’s voting patterns from the past tend to stay that way,” Salvanto said. “Not as many partisans today are willing to cross party lines.” Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects.
Choosing the 15 percent of districts that could flip is as much an art as a science, Salvanto said, but “there’s already a consensus forming among pollsters on what districts they are.”
The potential swing districts are scattered from coast to coast. One of Salvanto’s battlegrounds is right here in New York City — NY-11, in Staten Island and south Brooklyn, currently held by Republican Dan Donovan and being challenged by Democrat Max Rose. Others are in states from Texas to Maine to California to, yes, previously underpolled Michigan.
Some are picked for their demographic profile. “For example, we know Democrats have been trying to win suburban voters with college degrees, so we’re looking at the districts with many of those voters,” Salvanto said.
“We also look at where the campaigns are spending money,” he noted — a sign that the parties’ own internal data sees a potential pick-up or a possible loss.
“Overall, the districts in play tend to be more suburban and more affluent than the rest of the country,” he said. “But no single district will tell the national story.
“Right now I think this election looks like a toss-up,” Salvanto said. “We see a Democrat pickup in the House of Representatives in the 20-odd seat range, but Republicans could certainly hold on to the House.” The GOP holds a slim 43-seat House majority, with six vacancies.
“Even though Republicans have not fared well in special elections so far this cycle, it does look like they will be turning out for the midterms,” Salvanto said. “So far we do not see a large number of Republicans saying they will flip and vote for a Democrat.”
GOP voters in the past have been much more likely than Democrats to turn up and cast ballots in midterm elections, regardless of each party’s enthusiasm level ahead of Election Day.
So Democrats are literally betting the House on their ability to capture large numbers of voters who don’t normally vote in midterm elections. “They have to bring new voters in,” Salvanto said.
Democratic anger against President Trump gives them a shot at doing just that. “A large number of Democrats are contesting districts they have not contested before,” Salvanto pointed out. “That has new people coming into politics — younger, more women, more ethnicities — making for some interesting dynamics.”
But, according to his tracking poll, “voters say the Democrats need to do more than just oppose Trump,” he said. “They’re asking, ‘What are they arguing we’ll get if they take the majority?’ ”
Negative media coverage actually has the potential to drive GOP turnout to higher-than-average levels in November. “Among Republicans, Trump’s biggest backers feel driven to come to his defense,” Salvanto’s poll finds.
More at: https://nypost.com/2018/08/18/cbs-news-pollster-reveals-why-blue-wave-is-unlikely/
“It gives us a great advantage in trying to explain the meaning of the poll results,” Salvanto said.
This year, the CBS Battleground Tracker “is concentrating on the districts that we think will make a difference,” he said. “Remember, in a midterm, you have to watch each congressional seat — don’t pay attention to national numbers.”
Just as a presidential race is not a national contest but a collection of 51 separate elections (one for each state and for the District of Columbia), November’s midterm involves elections for 435 House districts and 35 Senate seats. The collective result will determine which party gains enough seats to control each congressional chamber.
“For pollsters, midterms are the most interesting and difficult challenge we face,” Salvanto said.
Not only must they consider 470 unique races, “there’s never more than a third or at best 40 percent turnout in midterm elections,” he noted. “So we’re looking for a subsample of a subsample” of voters.
For 2018, the CBS News Battleground Tracker has gathered a panel of nearly 5,700 registered voters. Almost all of them live in the 50 to 60 districts that might switch from Republican to Democrat, or vice versa, in November — the only races that matter, when it comes to control of Congress.
Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. “In this era, a district’s voting patterns from the past tend to stay that way,” Salvanto said. “Not as many partisans today are willing to cross party lines.” Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects.
Choosing the 15 percent of districts that could flip is as much an art as a science, Salvanto said, but “there’s already a consensus forming among pollsters on what districts they are.”
The potential swing districts are scattered from coast to coast. One of Salvanto’s battlegrounds is right here in New York City — NY-11, in Staten Island and south Brooklyn, currently held by Republican Dan Donovan and being challenged by Democrat Max Rose. Others are in states from Texas to Maine to California to, yes, previously underpolled Michigan.
Some are picked for their demographic profile. “For example, we know Democrats have been trying to win suburban voters with college degrees, so we’re looking at the districts with many of those voters,” Salvanto said.
“We also look at where the campaigns are spending money,” he noted — a sign that the parties’ own internal data sees a potential pick-up or a possible loss.
“Overall, the districts in play tend to be more suburban and more affluent than the rest of the country,” he said. “But no single district will tell the national story.
“Right now I think this election looks like a toss-up,” Salvanto said. “We see a Democrat pickup in the House of Representatives in the 20-odd seat range, but Republicans could certainly hold on to the House.” The GOP holds a slim 43-seat House majority, with six vacancies.
“Even though Republicans have not fared well in special elections so far this cycle, it does look like they will be turning out for the midterms,” Salvanto said. “So far we do not see a large number of Republicans saying they will flip and vote for a Democrat.”
GOP voters in the past have been much more likely than Democrats to turn up and cast ballots in midterm elections, regardless of each party’s enthusiasm level ahead of Election Day.
So Democrats are literally betting the House on their ability to capture large numbers of voters who don’t normally vote in midterm elections. “They have to bring new voters in,” Salvanto said.
Democratic anger against President Trump gives them a shot at doing just that. “A large number of Democrats are contesting districts they have not contested before,” Salvanto pointed out. “That has new people coming into politics — younger, more women, more ethnicities — making for some interesting dynamics.”
But, according to his tracking poll, “voters say the Democrats need to do more than just oppose Trump,” he said. “They’re asking, ‘What are they arguing we’ll get if they take the majority?’ ”
Negative media coverage actually has the potential to drive GOP turnout to higher-than-average levels in November. “Among Republicans, Trump’s biggest backers feel driven to come to his defense,” Salvanto’s poll finds.
More at: https://nypost.com/2018/08/18/cbs-news-pollster-reveals-why-blue-wave-is-unlikely/
