Democrats Likely to Win the White House

[Ronin Truth]

[h=2]Democrats Likely to Win the White House[/h]Michael S. Rozeff


I respect prediction markets, while understanding that their predictions can change as events unfold. At present, the Iowa Election Market has a Democratic victory priced at 66 cents and a Republican victory priced at 34 cents. A graph is here.


Betting for a Democratic victory costs 66 cents and you get back $1 if you are right; you get your stake of 66 cents back plus a profit of 34 cents. Betting for a Republican victory costs 34 cents and you get back $1 if you are right; this is your initial 34 cent stake plus 66 cents profit. The odds of a Democratic win are said to be “2 to 1 on”. Democrats are the odds on favorite at this time. This is sometimes expressed by saying 1 for 2 odds, meaning you win 34 cents for each 66 cents ventured if you win.

8:11 am on May 31, 2016

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https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/democrats-likely-win-white-house/


Step right up, ladies and gentlemen, and place your bets!

 

[Chaotic Neutral]

Betting aside, respected analyst Charlie Cook has Democrats 34 Electoral Votes on the other side of the finish line, with 304 Electoral Votes either Solid, Likely or Lean Democrat.

Republicans have an almost insurmountable hill to climb. Not only must the pull a bunch of Lean Democrat and Tossup States to their side, they must also spend money nailing down States such as North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri and Arizona that are now competitive in this election cycle.

 

[Cleaner44]

I will bet $10 on Trump over Hillary. Anyone?

 

[Voluntarist]

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[Voluntarist]

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[Ronin Truth]

Predictit still has Hillary at 58 cents; Trump has fallen to 38 cents.


The prediction markets are the only part of the political process that I find really compelling. I'd like to find some betting on the really interesting questions in the presidential race - namely, which candidate will win the electors in each state. So far those questions aren't making it to the market.

Perhaps Democrats winning doesn't necessarily mean Hillary.

 

[Voluntarist]

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[Voluntarist]

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[sumitz1207]

I have to correct my previous post, I evidently haven't been looking closely enough.

Which party will win Arizona
... DEM 70¢ ... GOP 33¢

Which party will win Colorado
... DEM 66¢ ... GOP 33¢

Which party will win Florida
... DEM 56¢ ... GOP 44¢

Which party will win Iowa
... DEM 57¢ ... GOP 41¢

Which party will win Michigan
... DEM 71¢ ... GOP 32¢

Which party will win Nevada
... DEM 70¢ ... GOP 30¢

Which party will win New Hampshire
... DEM 60¢ ... GOP 40¢

Which party will win North Carolina
... DEM 61¢ ... GOP 40¢

Which party will win Ohio
... DEM 56¢ ... GOP 45¢

Which party will win Pennsylvania
... DEM 63¢ ... GOP 38¢

Which party will win Virginia
... DEM 68¢ ... GOP 32¢

Which party will win Wisconsin
... DEM 68¢ ... GOP 33¢

Go ahead and plug those into the 270 to win map

Based on those numbers (and you have Arizona backwards), the map will look exactly like Obama-Romney in 2012.

What a fitting end to the most wild and unpredictable election year in American politics. For the first time in American history (I think), a carbon copy of the previous election.

 

[Ronin Truth]

Based on those numbers (and you have Arizona backwards), the map will look exactly like Obama-Romney in 2012.

What a fitting end to the most wild and unpredictable election year in American politics. For the first time in American history (I think), a carbon copy of the previous election.

Much may happen and change between now and November.

 

[RonPaulMall]

Friendly advice to all the members- I would jump on this buying opportunity and buy the max $850 on Trump if you have the funds. Worst case scenario you can sell when he hits 50 cents around convention time. But I'd hold on past that and go for the big payoff near the end when polls are going to show Hillary with little chance and the Trump price jumps to 80 cents or more.

Trump offering unbelievably fantastic prices is nothing new on Predictit. I've been trading there a while and for whatever reason (is the Military Industrial Complex and Israel pouring money in to influence the market?) Trump's price has frequently bottomed out for no discernible reason offered the opportunity for free money to anybody that wants to take it.

 

[Voluntarist]

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[69360]

I just can't see the Clintons losing. I read somewhere that 75% would still vote for her even if she is indicted.

 

[Ronin Truth]

I just can't see the Clintons losing. I read somewhere that 75% would still vote for her even if she is indicted.

Perhaps she could be inaugurated and impeached on the same day.

 

[Voluntarist]

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[Voluntarist]

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[Voluntarist]

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[spudea]

Hillary now up to 63¢ ... Trump down to 37¢

Days before the brexit referendum, contract was at 20¢ chance vote yes on brexit. These markets don't know shit.

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/784/Will-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU-by-year-end-2016#data