delegates question after tonight

[satchelmcqueen]

Still even after tonight, there will still be a vote at the convention right? Correct me if Im wrong. My understanding is that at that convention if McCain doesnt get 51% of the vote then a 2nd vote will happen where all delegates are free to vote for anyone...right??

 

[RonPaulNewbee]

That's what I don't understand: if there's going to be a brokered convention, why does the MSM continue to pronounce McCain ... guaranteed ... etc?

 

[Melissa]

That's what I don't understand: if there's going to be a brokered convention, why does the MSM continue to pronounce McCain ... guaranteed ... etc?

It does not really matter about how they get to convention but who they are and what happens if it is all of us that is the real question

 

[walter]

McCain now has enough "pledged" delegates to win the convention. A pledged delegate is only a delegate from a state that awards all of it's delegates to the one who wins a majority of the popular vote. However, being "pledged is only a matter of trust, if these "pledged" delegates vote against McCain, there is no penalty. They would have to really support someone else to vote against their "pledged" candidate. I just won a delegate spot and will go to the next level, if I make it higher I will vote for Paul no matter who I am "pledged" to. Most diehard Republicans will honor their pledge though and vote like they are told to, that's why we have to get Paul supporters to the convention! Keep becoming delegates ya'll!!!!!!!

 

[RP4EVER]

wrong....look at CNN's delegate count....1125 Pledged and 70 Unpledged..............thats not enough pledged delegates to win it

UPDATE: CNN is now giving McCain 1135 and 70 respectively

 

[porcupine]

That's what I don't understand: if there's going to be a brokered convention, why does the MSM continue to pronounce McCain ... guaranteed ... etc?

If McCain gets the required number of delegates to put him over the top, there won't be a brokered convention. He's most likely locked it up tonight. If not, he has to win about 1 more state.

I wouldn't count on a brokered convention.

 

[libertysilver]

Hey you never know.

A lot can happen in 7 months.

McCain is not looking well to me. He has a lot of Skeletons.
And probably knows that the vote fraud is rampant.

Ron Paul put on the site "AND NOW THERE ARE TWO".

Pretty soon it really could be "AND NOW THERE IS ONE".

This is entirely possible over a 7 month period.

Yes, I am an eternal optomist, but Hey-You never know!lol

 

[raiha]

Sorry it seems as though McCain has won the nomination. That's that isn't it? Clarification please. I'm confused.

 

[TastyWheat]

Important question: if the convention is brokered can candidates who dropped conceivably win the convention?

It definitely fits into the "last ditch effort" category, but maybe we can fire up the abandoned supporters to vote against McCain to give their guy one last shot. Still if the answer to the 1st question is no then we're fighting the greatest odds in history.

 

[Cholo]

A lot can happen in 7 months.

McCain is not looking well to me. He has a lot of Skeletons.
And probably knows that the vote fraud is rampant.

Ron Paul put on the site "AND NOW THERE ARE TWO".

Pretty soon it really could be "AND NOW THERE IS ONE".

This is entirely possible over a 7 month period.

Yes, I am an eternal optomist, but Hey-You never know!lol

It's true though - a lot can happen in 7 months. You just never know what might be in the cards. Stranger "fortunate" events I'm sure happened during the Revolution of the colonies.

 

[richardfortherepublic]

I think our odds are better then ever... can Mccain even campaign? Can the Republicans win the election without 15% of their party and a good amount of Independents... NO.

Ron still has I'm guessing $5 million dollars.

Its really all down hill for Mccain, and Dr.Pauls numbers can only rise... don't tell me all the Huckabee supporters are going to Mccain, they are smarter then that.

 

[Flirple]

There will not be a brokered convention because Mcain is presumed to have more than half of the delegates.

All the brokered convention talk was just speculation earlier on because with so many candidates and no clear frontrunner there was a concievable senario where nobody would have more than half of the delegates by the national convention. At which point a "brokered convention". would actually decide the nominee.

Granted, a lot can happen between now and the convention yada, yada, yada... But where we stand right now McCain will have enough delegates to clinch it outright and make this a normal convention, that is, the convention will be largely a symbolic "pep rally". But yes, strictly speaking it is not "official" until the vote at the convention.

And we will still have a big impact at the convention if we have anything to say about it through our 50-100 delegates and hopefully a critical mass of rEVOLutionaries that will be there.

 

[d03boy]

we could just get 51% of the delegates at the convention and take it over

 

[Schlickenmeyer]

Keep in mind they even call it an 'estimated delegate count'

The number is not know until the votes are taken.

1190 is not enough, anything is possible. If the good doctor has not quit the fight, than neither will I.

-Ron Paul delegate to congressional and state conventions

 

[bcreps85]

Nothing is official until the convention. Even though some delegates are "pledged", in many states that is just a moral pledge. In the end they can vote for whoever they want without any penalties. Hell, many of them may not even show up to conventions now that they assume McWar will be the nominee, which may give us the edge we need.

Who ever realistically thought we'd be one of the last ones left? It's not over til it's over!

 

[PaulTriumph]

There will not be a brokered convention because Mcain is presumed to have more than half of the delegates.

All the brokered convention talk was just speculation earlier on because with so many candidates and no clear frontrunner there was a concievable senario where nobody would have more than half of the delegates by the national convention. At which point a "brokered convention". would actually decide the nominee.

Granted, a lot can happen between now and the convention yada, yada, yada... .

Hmm. Can somebody good with "the maths" give us a reliable snapshot about where we stand now? (BradleyInDC, I'm thinkin' you and like-minded folks...)

I want to know:
-Exactly how many delegates RP has as of tonight
-How many delegates are still up for grabs in the coming primaries (remember, we still have some independent-minded states left like Oregon, etc.)
-How many UNPLEDGED delegates there are from candidates who have dropped/suspended their campaigns (and even unpledged from McCain, just hang on)

What I'm thinking is that while the MSM may count up a majority for McCain using assumptions based on unpledged delegates and states left, they might just get it wrong (imagine that! ) Wherever there are delegates to be had, we must TARGET them like pit bulls- don't let loose!!

Once it becomes clear that this is a TWO-MAN race, the GOP faithful will figure out that RP is the ONLY viable alternative to McCain. I hope RP puts a lot of his weight into creating a one-on-one debate (must convince McC that this would actually be GOOD for him, he he.) The party grassroots and base will start to see that McCain is NOT someone they can vote for in good conscience.

We've survived the blackouts, the hard knocks, now is the time we've waited for- a one-on-one campaign. The task before us now is to BUILD on all the momentum we've gained, gaining delegates through the rest of the remaining two-man primaries, through the spring, then make the March on Washington an event for the ages that will IGNITE those friendly to our cause to rise up and put the nomination in play.

As I've said before, look for this convention to be most UNconventional: once the snowball is rolling, it's a whole new ballgame

 

[Flirple]

Hmm. Can somebody good with "the maths" give us a reliable snapshot about where we stand now? (BradleyInDC, I'm thinkin' you and like-minded folks...)

I want to know:
-Exactly how many delegates RP has as of tonight
-How many delegates are still up for grabs in the coming primaries (remember, we still have some independent-minded states left like Oregon, etc.)
-How many UNPLEDGED delegates there are from candidates who have dropped/suspended their campaigns (and even unpledged from McCain, just hang on)

What I'm thinking is that while the MSM may count up a majority for McCain using assumptions based on unpledged delegates and states left, they might just get it wrong (imagine that! ) Wherever there are delegates to be had, we must TARGET them like pit bulls- don't let loose!!

Once it becomes clear that this is a TWO-MAN race, the GOP faithful will figure out that RP is the ONLY viable alternative to McCain. I hope RP puts a lot of his weight into creating a one-on-one debate (must convince McC that this would actually be GOOD for him, he he.) The party grassroots and base will start to see that McCain is NOT someone they can vote for in good conscience.

We've survived the blackouts, the hard knocks, now is the time we've waited for- a one-on-one campaign. The task before us now is to BUILD on all the momentum we've gained, gaining delegates through the rest of the remaining two-man primaries, through the spring, then make the March on Washington an event for the ages that will IGNITE those friendly to our cause to rise up and put the nomination in play.

As I've said before, look for this convention to be most UNconventional: once the snowball is rolling, it's a whole new ballgame

Nobody knows for sure the "exact" delegate count for any candidate right now. Despite the media's nifty cut-and-dry graphics they use to try to say we only have 14 delegates so far. Before last nights primaries and caucuses I think it was safe to assume we had roughly 40-50 delegates. And it sounds like we will get some more delegates from the Texas caucuses last night.

Yes the difference between 14 delegates and 50 delegates may sound like irrelevant splitting of hairs when compared to the delegate count of Romney, Huck, and McCain. But I would like to see us head into the convention with a solid 75 delegates who's sole intent is to have a disproportionately major impact at the convention.

And I also think it would be strategically much more effective to scrap the march on Washington and instead have the march at the Minneapolis GOP convention. The media will be covering these 3 (or however long it is) days like a blanket. If we can outnumber everyone else in and around the convention with rEVOLutionaries 2-1 WE will be the story of the convention. Even if McCain wraps up the nomination as expected. We will have a very hard time getting anywhere near that level of coverage with a DC march unless we get a million people to show up.

 

[porcupine]

I think our odds are better then ever... Its really all down hill for Mccain, and Dr.Pauls numbers can only rise... don't tell me all the Huckabee supporters are going to Mccain, they are smarter then that.

Than why were they supporting Huckabee?

 

[Bradley in DC]

Still even after tonight, there will still be a vote at the convention right? Correct me if Im wrong. My understanding is that at that convention if McCain doesnt get 51% of the vote then a 2nd vote will happen where all delegates are free to vote for anyone...right??

The rules "binding" delegates are set by the states: some are not bound, others bound for the first few votes (first, second or third), others are bound until released.

A lot can happen in 7 months.

Absolutely.

A pledged delegate is only a delegate from a state that awards all of it's delegates to the one who wins a majority of the popular vote.

Um, maybe, maybe not. Two different sets of rules determining how delegates are allocated and if they are bound or not.

However, being "pledged is only a matter of trust, if these "pledged" delegates vote against McCain, there is no penalty.

Um, no.

Sorry it seems as though McCain has won the nomination. That's that isn't it? Clarification please. I'm confused.

It is confusing, you got it right. In answer to your question, "probably, but it depends." How's that?

Important question: if the convention is brokered can candidates who dropped conceivably win the convention?

ANYONE who gets the support of a majority of delegates from five states can be eligible to have their name put forward for a presidential nomination vote on any vote (first, second, third....).

Dr.Pauls numbers can only rise...

Well, that's certainly true.

Granted, a lot can happen between now and the convention yada, yada, yada... But where we stand right now McCain will have enough delegates to clinch it outright and make this a normal convention, that is, the convention will be largely a symbolic "pep rally". But yes, strictly speaking it is not "official" until the vote at the convention.

And we will still have a big impact at the convention if we have anything to say about it through our 50-100 delegates and hopefully a critical mass of rEVOLutionaries that will be there.

Yup. If a pep rally, I would expect them to suspend the rules and vote for McCain by acclamation. The networks don't want to cover a roll call vote without any suspense.

Hmm. Can somebody good with "the maths" give us a reliable snapshot about where we stand now? (BradleyInDC, I'm thinkin' you and like-minded folks...)

I want to know:
-Exactly how many delegates RP has as of tonight
-How many delegates are still up for grabs in the coming primaries (remember, we still have some independent-minded states left like Oregon, etc.)
-How many UNPLEDGED delegates there are from candidates who have dropped/suspended their campaigns (and even unpledged from McCain, just hang on)

:o Hey, how did I become a "math" guy?

I'd like the guys with the spreadsheets to jump in. Great questions!

Keep in mind they even call it an 'estimated delegate count'

If the good doctor has not quit the fight, than neither will I.

Yup.

Nothing is official until the convention. Even though some delegates are "pledged", in many states that is just a moral pledge. In the end they can vote for whoever they want without any penalties. Hell, many of them may not even show up to conventions now that they assume McWar will be the nominee, which may give us the edge we need.

Um, pledged delegates are going to vote for McCain, me thinks. Expecting otherwise isn't wise. And yes, they'll all show up. The conventions are a lot of fun (lobbyist paid open bar, etc., I miss that....)