Debate eligibility rules released top 6 national only

[devil21]

They are calling as many as they can, either from voter registration, phone book, or other sources at random. I would guess they get a live answer 10% of the time, and of those who answer, 10% agree to do the survey. That means for 1,000 respondents, they probably had to dial around 100,000 numbers. This is why it takes several days or more to do the survey. Much of the demo breakdown comes after they answer those questions (so depending on the source, they don't always know in advance what age groups they are getting before they call).

Of course, they also know which numbers will reliably be answered by the drunk 65 year old that lives in front of Fox News while their houses are falling down around them and only their government checks keep their bellies full of GMO and fortified wine.

 

[CPUd]

Of course, they also know which numbers will reliably be answered by the drunk 65 year old that lives in front of Fox News while their houses are falling down around them and only their government checks keep their bellies full of GMO and fortified wine.

It depends on the sample methodology. If they use voter registrations, some of that demo could be inferred a priori. Some polls will literally brute force dial the last 4 or 7 digits. They will typically wait a length of time before polling the same person/number.

 

[limequat]

So...two weeks since the criteria has been announced and precisely zero polls released. Rand is trending above Bush nationally. Are they holding the polls to keep Rand out?

I don't think so. Probably just the holiday lull. Still, I'd like to see some updated numbers.

 

[jllundqu]

So...two weeks since the criteria has been announced and precisely zero polls released. Rand is trending above Bush nationally. Are they holding the polls to keep Rand out?

I don't think so. Probably just the holiday lull. Still, I'd like to see some updated numbers.

As would I. Still we are close enough to Iowa that this debate won't make much difference there, IMO. But it would certainly suck if Rand didn't make the cut. I think Bush won't make the cut and THAT will be the big story.

 

[kbs021]

Interested to see if the news about Carson lowers his numbers and/or leads to a rise in our numbers. Either could be something that lands us on the main stage. Going to be close!

 

[limequat]

As would I. Still we are close enough to Iowa that this debate won't make much difference there, IMO. But it would certainly suck if Rand didn't make the cut. I think Bush won't make the cut and THAT will be the big story.

Yeah I was just looking at that. Rand could very well bump him with all 3 of the criteria options.

Interested to see if the news about Carson lowers his numbers and/or leads to a rise in our numbers. Either could be something that lands us on the main stage. Going to be close!

I bet Carson's numbers will be way down after the stories about his campaign "shakeup". Rand will benefit, but so will Cruz and Trump.

Do we have a summary of which polls we expect Fox to consider? PPP does not use live interviewers and has very inflated numbers for Bush.

 

[bronc_fan23]

I had a dream about the debate and he wasn't in it.

What the hell am I doing dreaming about Republican Presidential debates?

 

[limequat]

I had a dream about the debate and he wasn't in it.

What the hell am I doing dreaming about Republican Presidential debates?

Might be time to take a break and get back to real life

In the last 3 national polls, Rand is only off Bush by .3% So all we need is two national polls where he beats Bush in the next six days. Fox will surely release a national poll this week. Maybe NBC too? C'mon, I'm getting restless here!

 

[Jan2017]

Carly will NOT be on main stage . . . do they even ask her if she'll "undercard" again ?

Kasich and Christie might both make top five in NH (?), and thus both get in main debate *uggh*
but has Christie ever been called out by msm to explain his "standing" with (dead) King Hussein ?

I do think the "lull" in polling after the last two debates have been to Rand's disadvantage
by keeping the status quo longest, as those debate performances could snowball a bit from people who actually watch debates.

 

[LatinsforPaul]

Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina Could Be Bumped To Undercard Debate

Fox says they will announce which candidates get invitations on “Lou Dobbs Tonight” on Monday at 7 p.m. EST.

 

[Jan2017]

Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina Could Be Bumped To Undercard Debate

Well the DailyCaller site learned

"according to the criteria unveiled by the FOX Business Network on Tuesday."

which is the exact same criteria as before,

According to Fox Business: “This debate will feature candidates that place in the top six nationally,
based on an average of the five most recent national polls; or place in the top five in Iowa, based on an average of the five most recent Iowa state polls;
or place in the top five in New Hampshire, based on an average of the five most recent New Hampshire state polls.”

No Rand in the undercard anyway.

 

[devil21]

Well the DailyCaller site learned

which is the exact same criteria as before,


No Rand in the undercard anyway.

Have there even been any polls released? Seems like it's been really quiet in the world of pollsters lately.

Hey Fox...remember remember....

 

[Foreigner]

Needs to beat Bush by 1 point in the next poll to tie him.

Carson is going down, but not enough in time for him to not be on the stage for now.

 

[shenmue]

Jan 11 is approaching!

I checked RCP average and I found no poll has been conducted since Dec of last year. Whats the status ?

 

[shenmue]

Needs to beat Bush by 1 point in the next poll to tie him.

Carson is going down, but not enough in time for him to not be on the stage for now.

Please elaborate more

 

[VictorB]

Where are all the polls?

 

[CPUd]

Jan 11 is approaching!

I checked RCP average and I found no poll has been conducted since Dec of last year. Whats the status ?

Should be at least 1 national by Monday, maybe 2 more Iowa polls and 1 NH.

 

[Crashland]

Should be at least 1 national by Monday, maybe 2 more Iowa polls and 1 NH.

Yeah there could be a lot of polls actually. If you look at 2012 there were several national polls conducted the week after the new year

 

[randbot16]

Jan 11 is approaching!

I checked RCP average and I found no poll has been conducted since Dec of last year. Whats the status ?

I have noticed this, and since the debate criteria has been announced RCP hasn't posted a single new national poll. Perhaps because Rand and Jeb are so close and Rand has likely moved into 6th? I have actually tweeted this at RCP a couple times now, since normally they are right on the ball with the national poll results.

 

[CPUd]

Rand *should* be starting to poll ahead of Bush nationally and pretty close to even with him in Iowa. It depends on when the polls were conducted.