Debate eligibility rules released top 6 national only

[Zippyjuan]

Fox info on qualifications: http://www.foxbusiness.com/industri...y-criteria-for-gop-primary-debates-on-jan-14/

In order to qualify for the primetime debate, candidates must either:

• Place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by FOX News.
OR
• Place in the top five in Iowa, based on an average of the five most recent Iowa state polls recognized by FOX News.
OR
• Place in the top five in New Hampshire, based on an average of the five most recent New Hampshire state polls recognized by FOX News.

Such polling must be conducted by major nationally and state recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques (i.e., live interviewers, random digit-dial sampling techniques and include both landlines and cell phones). In order to qualify for the first debate, candidates must register at least one percent in ONE of the five most recent national polls.

Current top five in poll averages for Iowa: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html
1) Cruz- 30.2%
2) Trump- 26.2
3) Rubio- 12.3
4) Carson- 10.0
5) Bush- 5.2%
6) Paul- 3.0%
7) Fiorina- 2.3

New Hampshire http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

1) Trump 28.3%
2) Cruz 12.0
3) Rubio 12.0
4) Christie 11.3
5) Bush 8.0
6) Kasich 7.7
7) Carson 5.3
8) Fiorina 4.3
9) Paul 3.3

Based on that criteria and current polls, it will be the top six at the debate. Only person with a shot at cracking and becoming a seventh in it seems to be Kasich in New Hampshire- 0.3 behind Bush currently.

 

[CPUd]

Fox info on qualifications: http://www.foxbusiness.com/industri...y-criteria-for-gop-primary-debates-on-jan-14/



Current top five in poll averages for Iowa: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html
1) Cruz- 30.2%
2) Trump- 26.2
3) Rubio- 12.3
4) Carson- 10.0
5) Bush- 5.2%
6) Paul- 3.0%
7) Fiorina- 2.3

New Hampshire http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

1) Trump 28.3%
2) Cruz 12.0
3) Rubio 12.0
4) Christie 11.3
5) Bush 8.0
6) Kasich 7.7
7) Carson 5.3
8) Fiorina 4.3
9) Paul 3.3

Based on that criteria and current polls, it will be the top six at the debate.

This assumes FBN uses all the polls listed on RCP, though they might have done that for the last FBN debate, (or maybe that was CNBC).

 

[eleganz]

Well this pretty much takes Rand out of the main debate barring any miracles.

I don't know why people respond like this. We all thought Christie was finished when he was dropped to the second tier debate stage but he made his way back.

 

[carlton]

Fox info on qualifications: http://www.foxbusiness.com/industri...y-criteria-for-gop-primary-debates-on-jan-14/



Current top five in poll averages for Iowa: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html
1) Cruz- 30.2%
2) Trump- 26.2
3) Rubio- 12.3
4) Carson- 10.0
5) Bush- 5.2%
6) Paul- 3.0%
7) Fiorina- 2.3

New Hampshire http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

1) Trump 28.3%
2) Cruz 12.0
3) Rubio 12.0
4) Christie 11.3
5) Bush 8.0
6) Kasich 7.7
7) Carson 5.3
8) Fiorina 4.3
9) Paul 3.3

Based on that criteria and current polls, it will be the top six at the debate. Only person with a shot at cracking and becoming a seventh in it seems to be Kasich in New Hampshire- 0.3 behind Bush currently.

There will be over 5 polls released nationally, and in IA and NH. So you can throw out all the polls your using right now.

 

[Crashland]

The most recent Iowa poll (Quinnipiac) having Rand at 2% and Christie at 6% is particularly bad. Unless there are going to be 5 more qualifying polls between now and Jan 11 (a tall order with the holidays), that bad poll is going to be in the final average. Rand is in if he can poll above Christie in Iowa, which *should* be easy...

 

[CPUd]

The most recent Iowa poll (Quinnipiac) having Rand at 2% and Christie at 6% is particularly bad. Unless there are going to be 5 more qualifying polls between now and Jan 11 (a tall order with the holidays), that bad poll is going to be in the final average. Rand is in if he can poll above Christie in Iowa, which *should* be easy...

That was national Q poll

 

[carlton]

The most recent Iowa poll (Quinnipiac) having Rand at 2% and Christie at 6% is particularly bad. Unless there are going to be 5 more qualifying polls between now and Jan 11 (a tall order with the holidays), that bad poll is going to be in the final average. Rand is in if he can poll above Christie in Iowa, which *should* be easy...

That was national Q poll

Yes, Q poll is national. Rand is already beating Christie in Iowa, he's got to beat Bush right now. Hopefully Trump can do some more damage to old Yeb

 

[Crashland]

That was national Q poll

Yes, Q poll is national. Rand is already beating Christie in Iowa, he's got to beat Bush right now. Hopefully Trump can do some more damage to old Yeb

Doh! Too much spiked egg nog...

 

[Mani]

How the hell is Christie ahead of anyone in anything!?! The only race I expect to see that fat fuck ahead in, is the donuts checkout line.

 

[specsaregood]

How the hell is Christie ahead of anyone in anything!?! The only race I expect to see that fat fuck ahead in, is the donuts checkout line.

Clearly you have underestimated the "hell yes we want WWIII, lets get it started" contingent of the American voting public.

 

[dusman]

Clearly you have underestimated the "hell yes we want WWIII, lets get it started" contingent of the American voting public.

Can't we just shout them down and call them Democrats yet?

 

[JJ2]

Rand is tied for 5th in the latest Iowa poll!

 

[carlton]

Rand is tied for 5th in the latest Iowa poll!

What poll?

*Edit*

NVM, YouGov poll. Nice trolling lol

 

[JJ2]

Rand is only 0.3% away from the top 6 nationally. In the last three polls from after the debate, Bush is averaging 3.3% and Rand is averaging 3.0%! It is still doable.

 

[nikcers]

Rand is only 0.3% away from the top 6 nationally. In the last three polls from after the debate, Bush is averaging 3.3% and Rand is averaging 3.0%! It is still doable.

He's Catching on.jpg

 

[adam220891]

I'll never understand these poll numbers or favorability ratings.

The one dude with a set of balls who stands up for YOU, the American citizen, regardless of your skin color, age, religion, etc. and who would actually make the founding fathers proud can somehow elicit a reaction of 'I really don't like this guy'? How in the fuck?

I do not understand the appeal of anyone else but Rand. They are all corrupt, war-hungry, big government, and not serious about balancing the budget. What the hell is so appealing?

WAKE THE HELL UP AMERICA

 

[JeremyR]

I call the polls are biased already. Who do they call? They're not calling 18-24 year Olds are they? 30year Olds? 40? 50?... Or just older folk.

One criteria that should be absolutely essential in a poll for it to be accurate is an even polling of each age group.
.

 

[devil21]

 

[CPUd]

I call the polls are biased already. Who do they call? They're not calling 18-24 year Olds are they? 30year Olds? 40? 50?... Or just older.

They are calling as many as they can, either from voter registration, phone book, or other sources at random. I would guess they get a live answer 10% of the time, and of those who answer, 10% agree to do the survey. That means for 1,000 respondents, they probably had to dial around 100,000 numbers. This is why it takes several days or more to do the survey. Much of the demo breakdown comes after they answer those questions (so depending on the source, they don't always know in advance what age groups they are getting before they call).

 

[Schifference]

What makes anyone think that pollsters report accurately?