Cruz has lost net 18 points against Trump since Colorado convention & 1st ballot elimination

[RandallFan]

Cruz has lost net 18 points against Trump since Colorado convention & 1st ballot elimination

The average Republican voter doesn't agree with Cruz getting more votes from states where Trump got 40% and Cruz got 15%.

True to form, Cruz had been steadily gaining on Trump nationally since Marco Rubio suspended his campaign on March 15…

[TABLE="class: ft8"]
[TR]
[TH="colspan: 2"]Reuters/Ipsos[/TH]
[TH]Trump[/TH]
[TH]Cruz[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MAR. 12[/TD]
[TD="class: red"]Trump +25[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MAR. 19[/TD]
[TD="class: red"]Trump +25[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MAR. 26[/TD]
[TD="class: red"]Trump +21[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]APR. 2[/TD]
[TD="class: red"]Trump +12[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
But then the Colorado GOP Convention happened on April 9…
[TABLE="class: ft8"]
[TR]
[TH="colspan: 2"][/TH]
[TH]Trump[/TH]
[TH]Cruz[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: green"]
[TD]APR. 9[/TD]
[TD]Trump +3[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]APR. 16[/TD]
[TD="class: red"]Trump +16[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]APR. 22[/TD]
[TD="class: red"]Trump +21[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
-3 to -21 in 2 weeks…

http://www.mofopolitics.com/2016/04/22/ted-cruz-lost-net-18-points-since-colorado/

 

[nikcers]

The average Republican voter doesn't agree with Cruz getting more votes from states where Trump got 40% and Cruz got 15%.



http://www.mofopolitics.com/2016/04/22/ted-cruz-lost-net-18-points-since-colorado/

I think there is nothing wrong with Bias but this is like saying that the world is getting warmer because it's hotter today then yesterday.

 

[RandallFan]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...publican-most-votes-should-be-nominee-n556846

Maybe only 40 or 50% of Republicans really believe that the person with the plurality of popular votes in the gop primary should be the nominee.

The number of Republicans who feel this way is certainly bigger than the 37% Trump has got so far.

 

[nikcers]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...publican-most-votes-should-be-nominee-n556846

Maybe only 40 or 50% of Republicans really believe that the person with the plurality of popular votes in the gop primary should be the nominee.

The number of Republicans who feel this way is certainly bigger than the 37% Trump has got so far.

Most people don't know how vice presidents get picked, why should I care what a majority think?

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...publican-most-votes-should-be-nominee-n556846

Maybe only 40 or 50% of Republicans really believe that the person with the plurality of popular votes in the gop primary should be the nominee.

The number of Republicans who feel this way is certainly bigger than the 37% Trump has got so far.

The thing you are missing here I think is that the general election demographics are completely different than the primary demographics... Completely different.

How big of a percentage of the eligible population votes in primaries ? How big of a slice of all Republicans votes in the Republican primary ?

The thing is, you may be able to get 40% of the votes in the primaries, this however says nothing about the general election. Just look at this year.. Rand polled highest in the general election polls against Clinton but very low in the Republican party..... Think about that.

 

[dannno]

Ya it amazes me how many people around here have been carrying water for Cruz and GOPe recently over the Colorado BS... It wasn't like Cruz pulled it off because of his amazing grassroots effort, it was because the GOPe did it for him.. why should we be rooting for that?

I mean, maybe this is all a show and Trump is establishment too, but if so like I've said they are doing a pretty good job making him look anti-establishment and there doesn't seem to be any solid evidence either way at this point.

The thing you are missing here I think is that the general election demographics are completely different than the primary demographics... Completely different.

How big of a percentage of the eligible population votes in primaries ? How big of a slice of all Republicans votes in the Republican primary ?

The thing is, you may be able to get 40% of the votes in the primaries, this however says nothing about the general election. Just look at this year.. Rand polled highest in the general election polls against Clinton but very low in the Republican party..... Think about that.

Cruz might lose harder than Trump, though, despite the current polling.. Too many people still don't realize how evangelical he is, and that really turns off a lot of people. Not to mention he is way more sleazy than Trump. I have a progressive friend who was actually paying attention to the GOP debates and started liking Trump a lot more once he started debating foreign policy more in some of those later debates - he would never go for Cruz, or Trump for that matter, but he definitely prefers Trump at this point. I think he has broader appeal in a general election bid.

 

[dannno]

//

 

[nikcers]

Ya it amazes me how many people around here have been carrying water for Cruz and GOPe recently over the Colorado BS... It wasn't like Cruz pulled it off because of his amazing grassroots effort, it was because the GOPe did it for him.. why should we be rooting for that?

I mean, maybe this is all a show and Trump is establishment too, but if so like I've said they are doing a pretty good job making him look anti-establishment and there doesn't seem to be any solid evidence either way at this point.




Cruz might lose harder than Trump, though, despite the current polling.. Too many people still don't realize how evangelical he is, and that really turns off a lot of people. Not to mention he is way more sleazy than Trump. I have a progressive friend who was actually paying attention to the GOP debates and started liking Trump a lot more once he started debating foreign policy more in some of those later debates - he would never go for Cruz, or Trump for that matter, but he definitely prefers Trump at this point. I think he has broader appeal in a general election bid.

What If I told you there were multiple political parties that were part of the same establishment, that our policies don't change when presidents change and when you think they do they just hide it better. What if I told you that the election is entirely for show, and at the end the day Clinton is going to be golfing with Trump laughing at us dumbasses for wasting our time promoting other candidates for president, presidents get chosen, not elected.

 

[dannno]

What If I told you there were multiple political parties that were part of the same establishment, that our policies don't change when presidents change and when you think they do they just hide it better. What if I told you that the election is entirely for show, and at the end the day Clinton is going to be golfing with Trump laughing at us dumbasses for wasting our time promoting other candidates for president, presidents get chosen, not elected.

Ya I know, Trump could just be helping Clinton get elected... there's no solid evidence for that, but I admit it is entirely possible.

But the GOPe is usually fairly united to an extent, although certainly there are conflicts at times, for the most part they have all united against Trump at least in appearance. I admit it could just be a show, they could be pulling a House of Cards, there is some indication but no clear evidence.

Since it isn't clear whether he's actually anti-establishment or not, and he has some major policy problems, I don't support him. I don't allow myself to be tricked into voting for people like that.

 

[nikcers]

Ya I know, Trump could just be helping Clinton get elected... there's no solid evidence for that, but I admit it is entirely possible.

But the GOPe is usually fairly united to an extent, although certainly there are conflicts at times, for the most part they have all united against Trump at least in appearance. I admit it could just be a show, they could be pulling a House of Cards, there is some indication but no clear evidence.

Since it isn't clear whether he's actually anti-establishment or not, and he has some major policy problems, I don't support him. I don't allow myself to be tricked into voting for people like that.

Unite against Trump? Yeah that was the plan Mitt Romney said to broker the convention. When that plan failed plan B would be to have Ted Cruz win on the first ballot with Kasich, when that plan fails they will change the rules. Trump won't get the nomination from the RNC but they will play nice to him so they don't alienate his supporters. Watch them hang him before the nomination, get people to hate him before the convention. They will be doing us a favor by not nominating Trump we will be thinking.

 

[Origanalist]

At this point is there a reason to care? Show your displeasure by voting outside of the two parties.

 

[nikcers]

At this point is there a reason to care? Show your displeasure by voting outside of the two parties.

Third world parties don't have the campaign financing to compete with first world parties . We need to abolish political parties all together because they are a farce we need a president beholden to no party- Republican or Democrat We will go to Saudi Arabia soon anyways, gotta fix the oil prices. They probably justify it by thinking a crashing economy would cost more lives then another middle east war.

 

[nikcers]

Ya I know, Trump could just be helping Clinton get elected... there's no solid evidence for that, but I admit it is entirely possible.

I dunno I guess maybe Trump deserves the benefit of the doubt. Why hasn't Trump put any sort of serious amounts of his own money into this election? I mean you have his kids who made videos and were surrogates for trump convincing republicans to registers to vote for Trump and they couldn't even vote for Trump. Wouldn't it be even sweeter if Trump could convince all of his republican supporters to stay home because the nomination was stolen from him?

 

[ChristianAnarchist]

Good riddance to Cruz, now if only the Don would go away. The convention will make for interesting TV but whatever happens (unless they nominate Rand) is pointless since none of these guys have a chance against Billary...

 

[erowe1]

That just goes to show how mentally lazy most voters are.

 

[fcreature]

Ya it amazes me how many people around here have been carrying water for Cruz and GOPe recently over the Colorado BS... It wasn't like Cruz pulled it off because of his amazing grassroots effort, it was because the GOPe did it for him.. why should we be rooting for that?

It might have to do with the fact that allowing the narrative to continue that using caucuses, conventions, and the delegate process is cheating can lead to a very scary outcome. That being the current system replaced with a primary only system in which all delegates are bound by popular vote.

I know there are quite a few people on these forums who would love a direct democracy but you can count me out of that group.

 

[CPUd]

I think it's a good idea to have a mix of both primaries and caucuses over 6 months. The party's attempt to streamline the process has led to the caucus states having a bit more weight than in 2012. The candidate who wins the nomination should be able to win both types of contests; as you can see we have 2 shit GOP candidates now because one can win primaries and the other can win caucuses.

 

[hells_unicorn]

It might have to do with the fact that allowing the narrative to continue that using caucuses, conventions, and the delegate process is cheating can lead to a very scary outcome. That being the current system replaced with a primary only system in which all delegates are bound by popular vote.

I know there are quite a few people on these forums who would love a direct democracy but you can count me out of that group.

Personally I'd favor eliminating all primaries and having only caucuses, but then again, I couldn't care less who wins at this point. Having said that, I think I'd take a slightly greater degree of satisfaction in seeing Cruz not only lose the nomination, but his entire political career. I'm all but convinced that he's going to take 3rd place in Pennsylvania.

 

[CPUd]

Ya it amazes me how many people around here have been carrying water for Cruz and GOPe recently over the Colorado BS... It wasn't like Cruz pulled it off because of his amazing grassroots effort, it was because the GOPe did it for him.. why should we be rooting for that?

I mean, maybe this is all a show and Trump is establishment too, but if so like I've said they are doing a pretty good job making him look anti-establishment and there doesn't seem to be any solid evidence either way at this point.




Cruz might lose harder than Trump, though, despite the current polling.. Too many people still don't realize how evangelical he is, and that really turns off a lot of people. Not to mention he is way more sleazy than Trump. I have a progressive friend who was actually paying attention to the GOP debates and started liking Trump a lot more once he started debating foreign policy more in some of those later debates - he would never go for Cruz, or Trump for that matter, but he definitely prefers Trump at this point. I think he has broader appeal in a general election bid.

Don't be so quick to discount Cruz's wins, they weren't just handed to him. His campaign is doing the exact same thing as Ron 2012 and what Rand 2016 would have done, if they had $150M to work with. If "GOPe" means state GOP leadership, then yes, he's getting support from some of them, but others are endorsing Trump or staying neutral- about the same as what happens during any primary season.

I agree either of these candidates are going to get slaughtered in the general election, and there's nothing they can do to change that.

 

[CPUd]

Personally I'd favor eliminating all primaries and having only caucuses, but then again, I couldn't care less who wins at this point. Having said that, I think I'd take a slightly greater degree of satisfaction in seeing Cruz not only lose the nomination, but his entire political career. I'm all but convinced that he's going to take 3rd place in Pennsylvania.

He won't win the popular vote in PA, so Trump or Kasich will get those 17 delegates. Ironically, a lot the same people voting for Trump are going to be electing the other 54 Cruz supporting delegates from that same ballot.