Cruz has lost net 18 points against Trump since Colorado convention & 1st ballot elimination

[hells_unicorn]

He won't win the popular vote in PA, so Trump or Kasich will get those 17 delegates. Ironically, a lot the same people voting for Trump are going to be electing the other 54 Cruz supporting delegates from that same ballot.

Not necessarily, the committeeman in my polling place is a Trump supporter and he'll be handing out sample ballots to everyone voting. Whether Trump, Kasich or Cruz gets those 54 delegates hinges entirely on whether the GOP's local committeeman or his/her proxies supports a particular slate of delegates. Cruz is not well liked by the party in this state, and neither is the Tea Party for that matter, who are seen as having lost a golden opportunity to dethrone Bob Casey Jr. in 2012.

 

[CPUd]

Not necessarily, the committeeman in my polling place is a Trump supporter and he'll be handing out sample ballots to everyone voting. Whether Trump, Kasich or Cruz gets those 54 delegates hinges entirely on whether the GOP's local committeeman or his/her proxies supports a particular slate of delegates. Cruz is not well liked by the party in this state, and neither is the Tea Party for that matter, who are seen as having lost a golden opportunity to dethrone Bob Casey Jr. in 2012.

What CD are you in?

 

[hells_unicorn]

What CD are you in?

I'm in Mike Fitzpatrick's district, Congressional District 8.

 

[misterx]

Ya it amazes me how many people around here have been carrying water for Cruz and GOPe recently over the Colorado BS... It wasn't like Cruz pulled it off because of his amazing grassroots effort, it was because the GOPe did it for him.. why should we be rooting for that?

Exactly. Ron Paul had a better delegate game than Cruz, but far less success because the establishment was working against him.

 

[RandallFan]

The thing you are missing here I think is that the general election demographics are completely different than the primary demographics... Completely different.

Im arguing that Cruz's tactics were stupid in terms of winning the primary or being able to flip 400 delegates on a second vote and Trump's ongoing landslides prove that. At best his taunting has kept Trump & Cruz flat and Kasich has gained.

Secondly, there's not much evidence that the neocon and Religious right people at the local GOP level who pick anti Trump delegates can come up with a better alternative (to Trump) at this point in terms of good general election performance.

If Cruz can only get 15% of Florida or 15% of Ohio GOP voters he could be even worse than Trump in a general election where he is hit on entitlements and war mongering.

 

[CPUd]

Exactly. Ron Paul had a better delegate game than Cruz, but far less success because the establishment was working against him.

Ron 2012 had better grassroots organization than what Cruz has now, but the official campaign is doing more in the way of ground support than Ron 2012 ever did. There were several states that could have been won in 2012 if they had campaign support. And in places like CO, VA, OK, the campaign was actively working against the grassroots (whether intentional or not).

 

[LibertyEagle]

Ron 2012 had better grassroots organization than what Cruz has now, but the official campaign is doing more in the way of ground support than Ron 2012 ever did. There were several states that could have been won in 2012 if they had campaign support. And in places like CO, VA, OK, the campaign was actively working against the grassroots (whether intentional or not).

You have it backwards. In successful campaigns, the grassroots take their lead from the campaign. They do not work against it.

 

[hells_unicorn]

Ron 2012 had better grassroots organization than what Cruz has now, but the official campaign is doing more in the way of ground support than Ron 2012 ever did. There were several states that could have been won in 2012 if they had campaign support. And in places like CO, VA, OK, the campaign was actively working against the grassroots (whether intentional or not).

The grassroots did a disproportionate amount of whining about how much they didn't like Jesse Benton personally compared to what they did that was constructive. The official campaign was quashed in large part because, whether intentional or not, the grassroots helped the establishment do their job. This same inane character of the "grassroots" was echoed in how little they supported Rand because they were so butt-hurt over him endorsing Romney. Me thinks the "Liberty Movement" is its own worse enemy at the grassroots level and makes the GOP establishment's job far too easy.

 

[nobody's_hero]

As someone who was a delegate for RP in 2012 and only confirmed my suspicion that the delegate strategy was a hail-mary play in a snow-storm with a lead football, let me say that if you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority.


In 2012, we essentially blitzed the caucuses and conventions, showed up temporarily with greater numbers, managed to piss off more people than we won over, and got stomped in half when they ran back and told their friends that "fringe nutters" had tried to take over the party and more people were needed to kick them back out. And that's exactly what happened. We never had the numbers to pull off a party take-over, and let's be realistic, we still don't.

Now it's 2016 and Cruz appears to be using the same tactic: A temporary delegate blitz to stun his opponents, and a beachhead landing that he may not even be able to hold before they dump him back into the ocean during the convention. For better or worse, it won't last.

 

[hells_unicorn]

As someone who was a delegate for RP in 2012 and only confirmed my suspicion that the delegate strategy was a hail-mary play in a snow-storm with a lead football, let me say that if you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority.


In 2012, we essentially blitzed the caucuses and conventions, showed up temporarily with greater numbers, managed to piss off more people than we won over, and got stomped in half when they ran back and told their friends that "fringe nutters" had tried to take over the party and more people were needed to kick them back out. And that's exactly what happened. We never had the numbers to pull off a party take-over, and let's be realistic, we still don't.

Now it's 2016 and Cruz appears to be using the same tactic: A temporary delegate blitz to stun his opponents, and a beachhead landing that he may not even be able to hold before they dump him back into the ocean during the convention. For better or worse, it won't last.

On a national level, particularly in presidential elections, ours is a movement that still isn't ready for prime time. We need to focus more on congress and state-wide offices and work our way up, and we also need to stop shooting ourselves in the foot when we get somebody who is mostly on our side like Rand Paul.

 

[nikcers]

As someone who was a delegate for RP in 2012 and only confirmed my suspicion that the delegate strategy was a hail-mary play in a snow-storm with a lead football, let me say that if you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority.


In 2012, we essentially blitzed the caucuses and conventions, showed up temporarily with greater numbers, managed to piss off more people than we won over, and got stomped in half when they ran back and told their friends that "fringe nutters" had tried to take over the party and more people were needed to kick them back out. And that's exactly what happened. We never had the numbers to pull off a party take-over, and let's be realistic, we still don't.

Now it's 2016 and Cruz appears to be using the same tactic: A temporary delegate blitz to stun his opponents, and a beachhead landing that he may not even be able to hold before they dump him back into the ocean during the convention. For better or worse, it won't last.

Let's start off with the difference between 2012-2016, in 2012 Ron Paul threatened the establishment republicans. Otherwise they would not of changed the rules. In 2016 Ted Cruz ran a similar campaign strategy but, he doesn't threaten the establishment and they will not change the rules. I'm not going to even start on the fact that Trump is a democrat, so the RNC won't nominate him.

 

[CPUd]

Let's start off with the difference between 2012-2016, in 2012 Ron Paul threatened the establishment republicans. Otherwise they would not of changed the rules. In 2016 Ted Cruz ran a similar campaign strategy but, he doesn't threaten the establishment and they will not change the rules. I'm not going to even start on the fact that Trump is a democrat, so the RNC won't nominate him.

Lost in his home district. Tiny hands. Sad!

 

[nobody's_hero]

Let's start off with the difference between 2012-2016, in 2012 Ron Paul threatened the establishment republicans. Otherwise they would not of changed the rules. In 2016 Ted Cruz ran a similar campaign strategy but, he doesn't threaten the establishment and they will not change the rules. I'm not going to even start on the fact that Trump is a democrat, so the RNC won't nominate him.

And . . . again. If you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority. Maybe if we'd had the majority in 2012 they wouldn't have been able to change the rules? Instead they stamped us out without a whimper.

In any case, what Cruz is attempting to do with the delegate blitz won't last. It's a desperate scheme to try to capture the crown and just as we did in 2012, he's gonna make more enemies than converts with the strategy. I'm just glad the establishment is on the outside-looking-in this time.

 

[CPUd]

And . . . again. If you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority. Maybe if we'd had the majority in 2012 they wouldn't have been able to change the rules? Instead they stamped us out without a whimper.

In any case, what Cruz is attempting to do with the delegate blitz won't last. It's a desperate scheme to try to capture the crown and just as we did in 2012, he's gonna make more enemies than converts with the strategy. I'm just glad the establishment is on the outside-looking-in this time.

What Cruz is doing is not desperate, it takes several years of planning to do what his campaign is doing now.

 

[nikcers]

What Cruz is doing is not desperate, it takes several years of planning to do what his campaign is doing now.

Now that i know the delegate rules so well I understand why there were people in here trying to woo Rand supporters to Trump only as a second choice. They were going after Paul delegates from the bat. Trump has been trying to make this a brokered convention from the start. He wants to blow up the convention and piss off the republican base so they don't vote in the general.

 

[nikcers]

And . . . again. If you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority. Maybe if we'd had the majority in 2012 they wouldn't have been able to change the rules? Instead they stamped us out without a whimper.

In any case, what Cruz is attempting to do with the delegate blitz won't last. It's a desperate scheme to try to capture the crown and just as we did in 2012, he's gonna make more enemies than converts with the strategy. I'm just glad the establishment is on the outside-looking-in this time.

Cruz won't win, that's the funny part. The RNC will probably make Cruz vice president or supreme court. The RNC is going to nominate someone that no one is even talking about like Kasich. They are going to create a Kasich surge LOL. They will say he will save us all from Clinton and Trump and he will do the bidding of the old money.

 

[CPUd]

I'm in Mike Fitzpatrick's district, Congressional District 8.

Out of 7 I know of in CD8:

2- Trump first ballot
1- Cruz first ballot
4- District winner, Kasich 2nd ballot

 

[Jan2017]

The big story in Pennsylvania isn’t what happens on Tuesday, but what happens after Tuesday.
Only the 17 delegates awarded to the statewide winner will be bound to a candidate — probably Trump

Even if a delegate currently announces plans to vote for a particular candidate at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland,
nothing binds that decision.
Many of the delegates have said they will vote for the candidate who wins their district, while others have pledged to back the statewide winner.
That potentially puts Trump in a very strong position

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-at-stake-for-republicans-in-the-northeast-primaries/

 

[hells_unicorn]

Out of 7 I know of in CD8:

2- Trump first ballot
1- Cruz first ballot
4- District winner, Kasich 2nd ballot

And tell me, out of the 5 states that Trump utterly destroyed Kasich and Cruz in this evening, which ones will Kasich win on the 2nd ballot?

This thing is over, Cruz and Kasich kicking against the pricks not withstanding. Vote for Hillary again if it feels good, because that's the only place an "anyone but Trump" mentality will end up taking you.

 

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