CPI jumps 5% in May of 2021, fastest since 2008

[oyarde]

target moves down its estimates that were already lowered and will begin canceling orders and discounting items.

 

[oyarde]

tesla will stop hiring and reduce work force ten percent. auto gross margins expected to have reached peak in first quarter this yr.

 

[Madison320]

The Larry Kudlow commentary today titled "Biden knows the economy is moving towards recession " and the CBO report ( estimated annual shortfall of 1.6 trillion from 2023 to 2032 ) pretty well sum up the direction we are headed . By 2032 fed debt would be roughly 110 to 125 percent of GDP . All very realistic .

Kudlow is a hypocrite. He was always cheering Trump's massive spending increases and all his other socialist policies.

 

[Madison320]

tesla will stop hiring and reduce work force ten percent. auto gross margins expected to have reached peak in first quarter this yr.

I'm guessing in a few more months we're going to be in recession and the "official" CPI is going to be down to somewhere around 4%. Then the Fed is going to declare success on inflation and resume QE and drop rates back to 0%. Then in another 6 months the CPI will hit all time highs, maybe 15%. Then it's back to another tightening cycle. This is a total guess but I'm thinking we could go thru several more cycles, each time the CPI raises and drops, but at a higher percentage each time. Until we get hyperinflation and the dollar collapses.

This is assuming they don't change the methodology for the CPI, I think there's a lot of pressure for them to do that. Either way the true CPI will be cycling up and down with new highs each time.

I think there's a 50-50 chance that's what is going to happen. The other possibility is that we get a crisis like a world war or pandemic or whatever and the Fed uses that as an excuse to drop rates to 0% and re-launch QE.

 

[devil21]

A lot of corporations and establishments are taking advantage of the inflation narrative to get away with price gouging. A last ditch profit grab before the wheels come flying off.

 

[oyarde]

New local gas price record today at 5.26 , old Obummer record was 4.12. Diesel to 5.90 .Chooglin .

 

[oyarde]

I'd say we are already in the stagflation cycle about now .

 

[oyarde]

Goldman Sachs says oil will hit 140 a barrel and feel like 160 a barrel by what consumers are forced to pay with no relief . ( no new refineries )

 

[Krugminator2]

I'd say we are already in the stagflation cycle about now .

There is no stagflation now. The unemployment rate is 3.6%. All 50 states have growing economies. Maybe that will change but not likely until at least 2023. Banks still have a wide spread between short term deposits and longer term loans so despite all the negativity in the press and how people feel, things still look great for a little while longer.

M2 growth has already normalized. If the Fed engineers a recession, inflation is probably done as a problem.for a long time. If they ease up, you probably don't get a recession and you have mid single digit inflation if loan growth stays strong.

 

[oyarde]

There is no stagflation now. The unemployment rate is 3.6%. All 50 states have growing economies. Maybe that will change but not likely until at least 2023. Banks still have a wide spread between short term deposits and longer term loans so despite all the negativity in the press and how people feel, things still look great for a little while longer.

M2 growth has already normalized. If the Fed engineers a recession, inflation is probably done as a problem.for a long time. If they ease up, you probably don't get a recession and you have mid single digit inflation if loan growth stays strong.

i think any reasonable growth is now at risk due to energy prices.

 

[oyarde]

US gasoline usage dropped to 8.8 million barrels a day for week ending May 20. Excluding 2020 plague that is the least used in spring time since 2013. That effects growth I think . Prices have surged since those numbers.

 

[Suzanimal]

A lot of corporations and establishments are taking advantage of the inflation narrative to get away with price gouging. A last ditch profit grab before the wheels come flying off.

Do you have any idea how much it costs to run a restaurant?

 

[oyarde]

Stasi reported cpi numbers creep towards 9 percent in May ( and probably June ) while they fudge the double digit inflation . Chooglin.

 

[oyarde]

Lets review some annual numbers , Hotels up 20 percent , air fares up 13 percent , used cars up 16 percent , new cars up 13 percent , rent up .while of course the worst are energy and food . The fed allowed this for a yr before doing microscopic rate increases from nothing. It should be abolished based on nothing but that performance . The peasants continue to allow this. On the bright side the Dow is only down 13 percent so everyone's 401Ks haven't tanked as much as you'd expect with things so dismal. Since inflation has not peaked as I've told everyone I'll assume the next one percent increase over these two moths is now a lock and we'll see where we are after.

 

[Madison320]

There is no stagflation now. The unemployment rate is 3.6%. All 50 states have growing economies. Maybe that will change but not likely until at least 2023. Banks still have a wide spread between short term deposits and longer term loans so despite all the negativity in the press and how people feel, things still look great for a little while longer.

M2 growth has already normalized. If the Fed engineers a recession, inflation is probably done as a problem.for a long time. If they ease up, you probably don't get a recession and you have mid single digit inflation if loan growth stays strong.

So there's no downside to raising the balance sheet from 1 trillion to 9 trillion? That 8 trillion created out of thin air does no harm?

 

[devil21]

Do you have any idea how much it costs to run a restaurant?

I'm sure it's a lot of overhead but come on, that pic is literally like (max) 30 cents of food for $10. I do some grocery shopping occasionally at a restaurant supply store (Chef Store, owned by US Foods) and have noticed that most prices there are actually -higher-, even though it's in bulk, than regular grocery store prices. It seems that restaurants pay something of a "restaurant tax" for input products from bulk wholesalers.

So there's no downside to raising the balance sheet from 1 trillion to 9 trillion? That 8 trillion created out of thin air does no harm?

We're witnessing how the central bank engineers a depression. Flood in easy credit (easy money), get everyone over leveraged, then withdraw the easy credit, suck cash/digits back out of circulation, then wait for the defaults.

 

[oyarde]

At this point if the Dow ends the yr at 30k investors are going to have to take that as a win. Anyone not happy with 6 dollar gas and 30K Dow shouldnt be voting for dems or people who are supportive of the fed. Farmer John meatpacking plant in Vernon Calf will close next yr as operations are being moved out of Ca , AZ and Utah to midwest . Gold 1880 , looks like the only play.

 

[Swordsmyth]

[h=1]Inflation Comes In At 40 Year High[/h]
https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2022/06/11/inflation-comes-in-at-40-year-high/

 

[Occam's Banana]

From the "animal spirits" school of economics:

https://fortune.com/2022/06/04/what-causes-a-recession-consumer-confidence-sentiment-inflation/

 

[DamianTV]

Yeah and maybe its not having ANY money to spend!

You know the Stimulus? Well it ALL went right back into food and gas, and now taxes on the unvaccinated!