CPI jumps 5% in May of 2021, fastest since 2008
- Thread starter Matt Collins
- Start date
Madison320
Member
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2012
- Messages
- 6,130
The only thing that's going to bail out the markets is when the Fed reverses course.
I think the fed will meet in June and they could raise rates another 1/4 point if everything remains about where it is now so ....... what are your thoughts if that happens? I expected Gold to go back to 1820 this morning. There is a lot of money out of crypto ( even more than I expected ) and about as much money out of stocks as I expected . I thought more of it would go to gold since sitting on cash is such a losing proposition so that shows how much I know . If these people are smart enough to save and or invest ( however you view it ) you'd think they wouldn't be happy losing what you'd be losing right now sitting on cash .Cash year over yr right now is zero . It takes 2k to buy what 1k would've a yr ago.
Last edited:
Madison320
Member
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2012
- Messages
- 6,130
I think the market is expecting a .5 rate hike in June. I've been expecting to lose money while the Fed is tightening, just not as much as the overall stock market. I think when the Fed starts to loosen is when gold, gold stocks, oil, oil stocks, etc are going to take off, and a lot more than other markets.
The question is when will the Fed reverse course? My guess is still around the last half of this year. Biden might be pressuring the Fed to stimulate before the elections if things are crashing. At some point the crash will overtake inflation as the number one priority.
Madison320
Member
- Joined
- Jan 11, 2012
- Messages
- 6,130
Nobody is laughing at my little car anymore.
All the real auto makers left russia so the ruskies will revive the old soviet Moskvich in an abandoned Renault factory. Moskvich though plans to go gay and after some success switch to electric . Russians so stupid no longer a threat to the rest of the world. Bye ruskies.
oyarde said:
And the msm stats generally don't take inflation into consideration when reporting "sales up .9% year over year". It's usually based on pure dollar figures. So when hearing their numbers it means that sales (total items sold, individual customer tickets, etc) were actually way down overall. Overall economic activity is far lower year over year.
Homebuyer mortgage payment amounts up 43.4 percent yr over yr . Reaching 2447.00 . To put that in perspective , my take home pay about 20 yrs ago from my 50K yr steel factory managers job was around 2600 . That was after putting maybe 11 percent into my retirement , federal , state , county taxes with held , social security tax , medicare tax and family plan health insurance payment of about 20 percent of what the co pd for the ins , 3 times salary life ins policy ( company pd 1 times ), dental ins , vision ins . And then no tax refund. My mortgage payment during those times ( I never had more than one even though I owned several homes ) was somewhere between 500 to 700, I never borrowed more than slightly more than one times my yearly salary. So te avg american mortgage is what my take home pay was 20 years ago. Thats a lot of inflation.
Last edited:
jpmorgan says gas prices could exceed 6.20 by august , i'm guessing that moves diesel to 7 1/4 . i expect this to happen because there is no real increase in refining capacity nor will there be new investment in oil processes under the economic terrorist dems ( pelosi , schumer , biden harris ) or whatever creatures they run in the next elections .
Last edited:
CBO predicts over 6 percent inflation rest of this yr , over 3 percent next yr and that is factoring in 2 1/2 percent Fed interest increase. CBO predicts 1.2 trillion per yr in interest to service debt by 2032 or more than the current defense spending . CBO cites too much spending and too little action by the fed ( all very true ) however I think 3.1 inflation for 2023 could be optimistic. They seem to think the good news is the low unemployment but really the labor participation rate is not a positive and the CBO admits that the growing debt is out of control going into the future. Basically GDP has not ( dismal for years now ) and will not save the future as the main spending will become interest on debt .That is a failed economic model. CBO budget Director will testify tomorrow to House Budget Committee on the newest report of failure . The failed house will then do nothing positive .
Krugminator2
Member
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2014
- Messages
- 4,568
Pretty big drop in M2 in the last reading. Maybe that is a one off. But it looks like the inflation the Fed has the most influence over (non-energy) peaked. Jeremy Siegel is a Wharton professor and a Milton Friedman disciple and who has been right about inflation for the last 15 years thinks the Fed should possibly stop hiking after the June meeting. The Fed made the error by not tightening last year and now thinks you can somehow make up for it by slamming on the breaks and sending the passenger through the window.
