Courier-Journal: Rand Paul leads Jack Conway by six percentage points

[RonPaulFanInGA]

The 6 point lead is legit, and indeed it is narrow.

This better be the bottom, or else Rand is in serious trouble.

Polls outside the margin of error are not "narrow."

You react in such an overtly negative way to everything about Rand Paul's standing in the race to the point where, after Paul wins in November, I wouldn't be really surprised if you posted a thread here entitled: "Why Rand Paul's Win is Bad News for Rand Paul's Chances of Winning".

 

[MRoCkEd]

Yes. Maybe you can add pro-war to that list. It will be interesting to see how far rand can push that now that the primary is over. No republican will vote for jack even if rand takes ron's foreign policy.

KY Dems are pro-war too... If anything, Jack will try to sound more pro-war than Rand.

 

[thomas-in-ky]

Isn't Eastern Kentucky where all of the blue counties are? Most electoral maps I've seen for KY indicate it's the East that votes Democrat.

For the most part, those Blue Counties in the East are Pro-Life, Pro-Gun, Pro-Union. Conway's stance on gun control and abortion will hurt him there. (I'm in one of the red Eastern counties)

I predict the map will look more like this (McCain-Obama)...

 

[theboone1980]

Paul is going to win, but there will be no Randslide in November. The fact is that Louisville and the mountains of western KY are heavily democratic. Bunning narrowly beat Mongiardo last time around. McConnell won with 53% vs. 47% in 2008. For KY Republican candidates seeking federal office, the margin of victory is ALWAYS in the single digits. Even John Kerry took 40% of the vote in 2004.

 

[thomas-in-ky]

Paul is going to win, but there will be no Randslide in November. The fact is that Louisville and the mountains of western KY are heavily democratic. Bunning narrowly beat Mongiardo last time around. McConnell won with 53% vs. 47% in 2008. For KY Republican candidates seeking federal office, the margin of victory is ALWAYS in the single digits. Even John Kerry took 40% of the vote in 2004.

I'm glad Rand does't have to run against Mongiardo... it would have been more difficult in Eastern Ky ... where the mountains are! Conway is more of a "Louisville Democrat" than Mongiardo.

 

[sailingaway]

Polls outside the margin of error are not "narrow."

You react in such an overtly negative way to everything about Rand Paul's standing in the race to the point where, after Paul wins in November, I wouldn't be really surprised if you posted a thread here entitled: "Why Rand Paul's Win is Bad News for Rand Paul's Chances of Winning".

LOL!!

I'll go with that...

It IS good not to be over confident, though I don't think anyone is, with a 6% lead, just relieved after non stop media battering.

 

[Brett85]

So where are the cross tabs?

 

[obijuan]

So where are the cross tabs?

This is the real question. This poll basically does Conway's work for him with the questions being asked about the CRA, ADA, BP, etc. SurveyUSA usually releases the crosstabs, but they might be waiting until this evening after WHAS runs the story on the news?

Rand being above 51% is huge; I wonder how hard they pushed people to make a decision?

 

[sailingaway]

So where are the cross tabs?

They are private. Clearly they don't want to give Rand any info he can use. What do you bet they are slipped to Conway, though?

 

[BamaFanNKy]

This poll is more accurate than Rasmussen. The 6 point lead is legit, and indeed it is narrow.

This better be the bottom, or else Rand is in serious trouble.

Yes because Rasmussen saying Rand would only win the primary by 25% was off.

Also, I've heard other polls from non-public people that have Rand high double digits.

Your also the guys who claimed Grayson schooled Rand in the last debate and keep touting how he's doomed.

 

[low preference guy]

Yes because Rasmussen saying Rand would only win the primary by 25% was off.

Also, I've heard other polls from non-public people that have Rand high double digits.

Your also the guys who claimed Grayson schooled Rand in the last debate and keep touting how he's doomed.

Also, don't forget that this was a push poll, because it asked people about whether they think private businesses should be allowed to discriminate people due to their ethnicity or disability. With all that, Rand got more than 50%, so he is in a really good position. But of course, he should campaign hard and carefully as usual

 

[Epic]

Why does the article says Paul's winning margin is less than the margin of error?

He won by 6, margin of error is 4.2.

Doesn't make sense.

 

[low preference guy]

Rand could be 4.2 lower than he is in the poll, and Conway 4.2 higher than he is in the poll, so the real preference could be 8.4 points off.

Still, this was a push-poll and Rand has at least 47%. It's a really good result for Rand.

..

 

[jazzloversinc]

I am praying that it is now understood that Maddow, Colbert, Mahr, Stewart etc etc are NOT FRIENDS OF LIBERTY!!!!

 

[sailingaway]

" Rand could be 4.2 lower than he is in the poll, and Conway 4.2 higher than he is in the poll, so the real preference could be 8.4 points off.

Still, this was a push-poll and Rand has at least 47%. It's a really good result for Rand. "

Until this poll I have never EVER seen that reading of the margin of error. I think they wrote the article expecting that to be the case and didn't correct it.

 

[obijuan]

Yes because Rasmussen saying Rand would only win the primary by 25% was off.

I didn't think Rasmussen polled the primary? If they did, and predicted 25 points, that's huge, but I think they have only polled the general.

 

[jonathansloas]

Nope

Also, don't forget that this was a push poll, because it asked people about whether they think private businesses should be allowed to discriminate people due to their ethnicity or disability. With all that, Rand got more than 50%, so he is in a really good position. But of course, he should campaign hard and carefully as usual

This was absolutely not a push poll. A push poll is not done for scientific purposes. A push poll is sent to as many people as possible, instead of a scientific sample. Please read the wiki here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll

This is a legit poll that shows Rand just up 6. Also, I think this would just be good for reference so people don't freak out when this happens again. Just because a campaign tests negative messages does not make it a push poll. Usually a campaign will test the ballot, then test messages (i.e. Rand and Civil Rights Act and Conway and Cap and Trade) and then test the ballot again to see how the issues affects the voters. That is not push polling, that is smart.

SurveyUSA does not retest the ballot, so the number you see is the first ballot pass - the real numbers.

 

[low preference guy]

This was absolutely not a push poll. A push poll is not done for scientific purposes. A push poll is sent to as many people as possible, instead of a scientific sample. Please read the wiki here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll

This is a legit poll that shows Rand just up 6. Also, I think this would just be good for reference so people don't freak out when this happens again. Just because a campaign tests negative messages does not make it a push poll. Usually a campaign will test the ballot, then test messages (i.e. Rand and Civil Rights Act and Conway and Cap and Trade) and then test the ballot again to see how the issues affects the voters. That is not push polling, that is smart.

SurveyUSA does not retest the ballot, so the number you see is the first ballot pass - the real numbers.

You missed my point.

 

[jonathansloas]

No, your point was:

"Also, don't forget that this was a push poll, because it asked people about whether they think private businesses should be allowed to discriminate people due to their ethnicity or disability. With all that, Rand got more than 50%, so he is in a really good position."

And my point is

1.) It's not a push poll.
2.) Testing that message has no effect on the ballot
3.) "With all that" - You then imply that Rand was over 50% in a push poll so he's fine. Well it's a not a push poll, if the election were held today Rand would win by 6%. Not a bad spot to be in, but it's not the 20% we thought he was up.

 

[klamath]

This was absolutely not a push poll. A push poll is not done for scientific purposes. A push poll is sent to as many people as possible, instead of a scientific sample. Please read the wiki here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll

This is a legit poll that shows Rand just up 6. Also, I think this would just be good for reference so people don't freak out when this happens again. Just because a campaign tests negative messages does not make it a push poll. Usually a campaign will test the ballot, then test messages (i.e. Rand and Civil Rights Act and Conway and Cap and Trade) and then test the ballot again to see how the issues affects the voters. That is not push polling, that is smart.

SurveyUSA does not retest the ballot, so the number you see is the first ballot pass - the real numbers.

Just because someone on wiki said something doesn't make it the gospel truth. When you ask questions to lead the respondents into a certain mindset then ask who they support you are trying to alter the results. If you ask a person that doesn't pay that much attention to politics and news who they support after telling what you opinion of what a candidate stands for you are push polling. If a person that leaned toward Rand hadn't of been told about Rands position or reminded of it they would have pulled the level for Rand.
If cap and trade and a well rounded set of generic questions had been asked then it would have been a ligit poll.