CNN/ORC: Rand 6th Bush 7th nationally

[movingstone]

Poll numbers (change from last month)

Trump 39% (+3)
Cruz 18% (+2)
Carson 10% (-4)
Rubio 10% (-2)
Christie 5% (+1)
Paul 4% (+3)
Bush 3% (nc)

Huckabee 2% (nc)
Kasich 2% (nc)
Fiorina 1% (-2)

Pataki/Santorum/Gilmore 0%

Best job at debate

Trump 33%
Cruz 28%
Rubio 13%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 4%
Carson 2%
Paul 2%

Bush/Huckabee/Kasich/Graham 1%

Pataki/Santorum 0%

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/12/22/cnnpoll.pdf

 

[Liberty74]

Placement does not matter folks. It's the percentage.

 

[jmdrake]

Placement does not matter folks. It's the percentage.

Percentage doesn't matter folks. It's the trend. Glad to see Rand is up to 4%. Sad that so many people are so stupid that they thought Trump did the best in the debate. Rand didn't say "bomb the brown people" enough times for the 30% of Republicans (45% of Trump supporters) who want to bomb the fictional city of Agrabah.

 

[movingstone]

Placement does not matter folks. It's the percentage.

Consider I have 4 excels worth of data. I think I know this shit.

But what I posting is that, Bush is not stabilize but continue to fall. After Christmas to the next debate is another 2 weeks worth of polls. Meaning if this trend is correct. Bush will fall out of the top 6, and also may fall out of the top 5 in Iowa, and may even fall out of the top 5 in New Hampshire (if Kasich is lucky).

Bush, Paul, and Kasich are all on the bubble. The debate probably have 6 people or 7 (I don't think 8).

If I have to bet money. I would bet on Bush over the Rand and Kasich based on the data. Unless couple more polls show that he fall even further.

 

[movingstone]

Placement does not matter folks. It's the percentage.

I even make a thread calling out people's bullshits lately, making up bullshit data of the 2012 cycle.
I am not one to overhype stuffs. But Christie rise seemed to hammer Bush badly.

 

[01000110]

Placement does not matter folks. It's the percentage.

Doesn't it?

That main debate will feature candidates who place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by Fox News, or place within the top five based on an average of the five most recent Iowa or New Hampshire state polls recognized by the network.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...ligibility-rules-released-top-6-national-only

 

[Liberty74]

Percentage doesn't matter folks. It's the trend. Glad to see Rand is up to 4%.

There is no trend. Rand has been fluctuating between 2% and 6% for months now nationally. And such is all within the margin of errors of those polls hence no real trend.

People read into the smallest damn things without really understanding.

Now, if Rand breaks into the 8-12% range nationally then yes, a clear trend would be occurring. Same would hold true in Iowa and NH if such started occurring.

 

[randomname]

 

[Jeffster]

I still have a feeling that the number of people who actually show up to caucus for Trump in Iowa will be far less than his poll numbers.

 

[Chieppa1]

Wow. They showed Rand ahead of Bush. Actually showed his face. Someone is getting fired at CNN.

 

[Jan2017]

BASED ON 292 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS
AND 146 WHO DESCRIBED THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN,
FOR A TOTAL OF 438 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS

hard data for the 438 polled is needed to decipher Christie's 5ish% and Rand's 4ish percent, so that the averaging error doesn't occur when
the Fox mathematicians "average" the polls for the debate using the new criteria "place" requirement.

 

[squirl22]

e

. Rand didn't say "bomb the brown people" enough times for the 30% of Republicans (45% of Trump supporters) who want to bomb the fictional city of Agrabah.

And I bet they are all "Christians."

 

[supermario21]

If anything we can now say that regardless of the style campaign Rand ran he'd be where he's at now...I think he's done a great job the last 2 debates in terms of being closer to Ron and it really hasn't done that much...But the trend is good. If someone drops out Rand will be in position to definitely make the stage. And to be honest, he has no incentive to drop out before Kentucky so he'll be around even if he misses the main stage for a debate or two.

 

[hells_unicorn]

e

And I bet they are all "Christians."

You mean the people who booed Jesus at the South Carolina debate during the 2012 GOP primary? Yep, special folks in need of further polling.


On Topic: This is only helpful if Rand starts to hang around the upper portion of his current box, namely the 4-6% range and either Carson or Bush (or both) completely collapsing either nationally or in Iowa. I think it's more likely in Iowa, but if Bush consistently stays at 3% and dips below it a couple times he may end up in the under card.

 

[Crashland]

Please Carson drop out... I think he might go after Iowa but it would be nice if he dropped sooner.

 

[derek4ever]

Rand had 2 great debates and the fact he gained 3 and is in the top 6 just might inspire ránd to continue with the path he chose to take now. Hopefully rand will have a good rest and come after christmas with all the energy we know he has. Go rand!!

 

[The Gold Standard]

I think he's done a great job the last 2 debates in terms of being closer to Ron and it really hasn't done that much...But the trend is good.

What? It looks like being closer to Ron has caused the trend to look good.

 

[Isaac Bickerstaff]

Does anyone know Carson's burn rate?

 

[The Northbreather]

It's very irritatating that wanna be dictator Cristie is ahead of Rand, unnerving actually.

 

[derek4ever]

It's very irritatating that wanna be dictator Cristie is ahead of Rand, unnerving actually.

I agree but it's only +1. Carson is in a free for all and I'm guessing his support will be split between Rand, Cruz and Trump. Rand needs to keep doing what he did in the past month, where dropped some truth bombs left and right, hoping some smart people would pick up on it. I know 4% is nothing to celebrate about at all but if Rand keeps on chipping off some of the soft core supporters from the "anti-establishment" candidates and picks up new supporters, before the next debate we might see Rand where we want him!