CNN Jacksonville, FL Debate (1/26/12) 8p ET - Official Thread!

[cindy25]

did anyone else notice that Ron does better on CNN debates? Fox I understand because the audience is stacked against him.

btw, why the continuous log in log out today?

 

[PolicyReader]

The debate was very solid for Paul, and while it may not be enough place him in the top two in FL he hasn't been focused there so a low finish in FL doesn't really hurt him.
The media could in theory try to focus on SC + FL as a "trend" but that's pretty much worst case and isn't that big a neg impact compared with just being ignored as as been the overwhelming norm. Paul is focusing on Maine, Nevada & Minnesota those are the places he really needs to do well. A win in one of them, being able to say Ron Paul takes 1st place in ____ shortly after FL will be important, the lack of that could really be a blow.

Honestly my fingers are crossed for a Newt over Mitt finish in FL, it may not happen I acknowledge but it would be a boon to the Paul campaign if it did (SC helped a great deal, FL would extend those effects further still).

One other positive about this debate is the continued trend of Santorum and Gingrich to court Paul stances/voters. Most Paul supporters are not going to be swayed by that but it erodes the "fringe candidate" narrative and makes more of the Newt/Rick voters likely to vote Paul when their guy drops (and in those states where their guy isn't on the ballot). The other aspect to keep in mind is that the further the delegates are spread the more the late states matter and the more likely a brokered convention becomes (which could really turn in Pauls favor if the ground game is as good as Iowa ect. seem to indicate. )

Finally FL is to some extent a win for Paul even if he finishes in fourth with Mitt taking the head of the pack. The comparative resource investment is advantageous to Paul. FL is expensive and Mitt has already spent over 10 mill there so far (including spending by PACs) that's money which will not be spent in other states and other contests thus helping Pauls long game. Remember this year FL is only worth 50 delegates and with the way the media has treated Paul all cycle is bid for the nomination doesn't live and die by the Pendents / reporters the as much as the other candidates.

All in all, good debate and nice direction for Dr. Pauls presentation of himself and beyond that don't sweat Florida one way or the other.

 

[sailingaway]

I think Ron is better off if Romney wins. Romney is going to go all the way in any event, and if Newt wins two he'll be much more pushed as 'THE' anti-Romney whereas Ron should otherwise be able to pick up some of those votes. That's my opinion in any event. But I agree we shouldn't sweat Florida, we've already bought and paid for the downside of not challenging there, now we have to make use of that time by getting a start on other states.

 

[phill4paul]

I apoligize for asking this but over one hundred pages are too many to scan through. My internet was slow but is now back up. Is there a tube of the debate so I can watch it now?

 

[WD-NY]

The debate was very solid for Paul, and while it may not be enough place him in the top two in FL he hasn't been focused there so a low finish in FL doesn't really hurt him.
The media could in theory try to focus on SC + FL as a "trend" but that's pretty much worst case and isn't that big a neg impact compared with just being ignored as as been the overwhelming norm. Paul is focusing on Maine, Nevada & Minnesota those are the places he really needs to do well. A win in one of them, being able to say Ron Paul takes 1st place in ____ shortly after FL will be important, the lack of that could really be a blow.

Honestly my fingers are crossed for a Newt over Mitt finish in FL, it may not happen I acknowledge but it would be a boon to the Paul campaign if it did (SC helped a great deal, FL would extend those effects further still).

One other positive about this debate is the continued trend of Santorum and Gingrich to court Paul stances/voters. Most Paul supporters are not going to be swayed by that but it erodes the "fringe candidate" narrative and makes more of the Newt/Rick voters likely to vote Paul when their guy drops (and in those states where their guy isn't on the ballot). The other aspect to keep in mind is that the further the delegates are spread the more the late states matter and the more likely a brokered convention becomes (which could really turn in Pauls favor if the ground game is as good as Iowa ect. seem to indicate. )

Finally FL is to some extent a win for Paul even if he finishes in fourth with Mitt taking the head of the pack. The comparative resource investment is advantageous to Paul. FL is expensive and Mitt has already spent over 10 mill there so far (including spending by PACs) that's money which will not be spent in other states and other contests thus helping Pauls long game. Remember this year FL is only worth 50 delegates and with the way the media has treated Paul all cycle is bid for the nomination doesn't live and die by the Pendents / reporters the as much as the other candidates.

All in all, good debate and nice direction for Dr. Pauls presentation of himself and beyond that don't sweat Florida one way or the other.

Great analysis - thanks for sharing and welcome to the forums!

 

[affa]

I'm a huge Paul supporter affa but I'm a realist. I believe that Paul is the only one who can beat Obama hands down and we may yet that outcome.

You are correct that the fact I pointed out us my opinion also and as a realist I believe we will see that opinion played out in the next poll.

Romney
Grinch
Santorum
Paul

Definition of 'realist': Someone who thinks their opinion is reality, and everyone else's opinion is fantasy... unless they also agree with them, in which case, they're just being a realist too.

 

[PolicyReader]

@WD-NY Thanks Long, I've been kicking around the Paul trail since '07 but only just got set up on the forums here (trying to help gather more Vets to write for CVRP.com )

@sailingaway
An interesting take and I do see your point. My thought on that front was that a Newt win (or more specifically a Romney loss) in SC and FL would be a great boon for the long game since ground game, fund raising, and getting on all ballots, all go to Paul and Romney. So my sense of it was that as long as Newt doesn't go on too much of a roll beyond FL it would still be a positive. You are quite correct tho that it could cut both ways.

In either case I think the key aspect of both of our analysis is the point where we both agree, the focus needs to be on the states after Florida rather than Florida itself.


Cheers all

 

[wgadget]

http://www.youtube.com/user/MOXNEWSd0tCOM