CNBC GOP Debate on Oct 28th - Who will qualify?

[derek4ever]

Rand might poll higher if he knocks it off with the fake conservative crap. No one wants to hear it and it just makes him look like an insider. How the hell a guy with a doctorate cannot see this is beyond me.

I whole heartedly agree! Since the next debate is about economic policy, maybe he should continue talking about how we should get government out of the economy, how we need to create more jobs and what other ideas he wants to propose (maybe emphasize on his 14.5% flat tax plan wouldn't hurt him at all and say that he would do away with the payroll taxes).

 

[Jackie Moon]

According to whom?

The debate is a month away. How could it already be decided?

Exactly, the criteria has not even been announced yet.

Right. I don't see the point in already panicking on rumors about a debate where the criteria isn't set and there is still a month left.

That's what the people pushing these rumors from other campaigns want you to do... to say "oh well, he's not going to make it, might as well give up".

The 5% in Iowa or NH thing was something Chuck Todd threw out as hypotheticals in an interview with ESPN. That's not a set rule. All he said for sure was they didn't want more than 10 on stage.

Even so, there's only been one poll in Iowa taken the day after the debate and Rand was at 4%. That poll still included Walker with 5%. Rand is 8th in that poll, but in a virtual tie with group that's 4th - 9th.

Rand also received 5% in a poll done a couple weeks earlier.

So I'm not going to panic this far out and make assumptions based on rumors and hypotheticals. When it's all set I'm still confident Rand will be in the debate.

 

[erowe1]

It's only decided if he doesn't start polling higher.

He will. But even if he doesn't, how do you know this?

 

[Paul4Prez]

Most likely everyone polling at 1% or higher will get in. There are only 15 candidates now, and only 11 at 1% or higher. They won't slam the door on Rand if it hits Christie in the face.

 

[MarcusI]

So as discussed in other topics, the CNBC criteria are as follows:

"National polls will be used to determine a candidate's eligibility and placement on the stage. To be eligible to appear in either segment, a candidate must have at least 1% in any one of the methodologically sound and recognized national polls conducted by: NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, CNN and Bloomberg, released between September 17, 2015 and October 21, 2015.

To appear in the 8pm debate a candidate must have an average of 3% among these polls. The polls will be averaged and will be rounded up to 3% for any candidate with a standing of 2.5% or higher. Candidates who average below that will be invited to the 6pm debate."

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/30/cnbc-republican-debate-criteria.html

(Its not explicitly said if a newer poll would "delete" an older, in case that any said poll conducter releases 2 polls in the time phrase. My take is that both polls would count, as it has been the case in the CNN debate)

That means that as of now, the following polls will be taken into account:

CNN 9/20 - FOX 9/23 - Bloomberg 9/24 - NBC 9/27 - CBS 10/11

The current average of these polls:

In prime time debate:

1. Trump 23.8
2. Carson 17.8
3. Fiorina 10.4
4. Rubio 9.4
5. Bush 8.4
6. Cruz 6.6
7. Kasich 3.6
-- Christie 3.6
9. Huckabee 3.2
10. Paul 3.0

in 2nd tier:

11. Santorum 0.8
12. Jindal 0.4
13. Pataki 0.2

Not qualified at all:

14. Gilmore 0.0
-- Graham 0.0


Note that ABC hasnt released a poll yet in the timeframe, and they used to have the best results for Paul in the last months! 7th place is doable still

 

[randomname]

The problem they have is that they will have to exclude Christie if they exclude Rand, so what to do what to do? I think Rand will be excluded this time if possible.

why would it be a problem for CNBC to exclude Christie but not Rand?

 

[MarcusI]

With the new FOX poll from today (and assuming the new one doesnt "delete" the old Fox poll from 9/23), the current average of the polls acknowleged by CNBC are:

In prime time debate:

1. Trump 23.8
2. Carson 18.7
3. Fiorina 9.5
4. Rubio 9.3
5. Bush 8.3
6. Cruz 7.2
7. Huckabee 3.5
8. Kasich 3.2
-- Christie 3.2
10. Paul 3.0

in 2nd tier:

11. Santorum 0.7
12. Jindal 0.5
13. Pataki 0.3

Not qualified at all:

14. Gilmore 0.0
-- Graham 0.0

 

[cindy25]

not as important as other debates:

1) CNBC is not as available as CNN or Fox
2) there is a World series game on the 28th.

the Nov debate even less important, as its on Fox Business which no one gets.

 

[pmbug]

...
the Nov debate even less important, as its on Fox Business which no one gets.

Plenty of GOP voters will watch the debates no matter what channel it is on. It's a mistake to downplay the significance of any of the debates. They are all significant opportunities.

 

[Tinnuhana]

Does anyone think that the more congenial, issues-oriented Dem debate will influence how the media frames the GOP debate?

 

[Virgil]

Does anyone think that the more congenial, issues-oriented Dem debate will influence how the media frames the GOP debate?

Depends on the ratings.

-virgil

 

[erowe1]

not as important as other debates:

1) CNBC is not as available as CNN or Fox
2) there is a World series game on the 28th.

the Nov debate even less important, as its on Fox Business which no one gets.

I'm not sure if the importance of debates is as dependent on the number of people who watch them live as it is on other factors. Generally, I'd say the closer the debate is to the primaries, the more important it is.

 

[Aquinas]

With the new FOX poll from today (and assuming the new one doesnt "delete" the old Fox poll from 9/23), the current average of the polls acknowleged by CNBC are:

In prime time debate:

1. Trump 23.8
2. Carson 18.7
3. Fiorina 9.5
4. Rubio 9.3
5. Bush 8.3
6. Cruz 7.2
7. Huckabee 3.5
8. Kasich 3.2
-- Christie 3.2
10. Paul 3.0

in 2nd tier:

11. Santorum 0.7
12. Jindal 0.5
13. Pataki 0.3

Not qualified at all:

14. Gilmore 0.0
-- Graham 0.0

I really hope we see a couple of new polls come out. As it stands, only two qualifying polls would have been taken in the last month while four are getting quite stale. The CNBC averages don't really reflect the recent Kasich/Christie slides, and I think that (given recent trends on RCP) if just one more poll comes out we'd see Kasich and Christie on the wings of the debate stage instead of Rand.

I do think that polls are useful in a general sense, but using them as a final arbiter of the narrative (and consequently, the distribution of speaking time) is increasingly grating. Plus, they'll be doing so with old stats.

 

[CPUd]

CNN/ORC should release one today or tomorrow. They already released the Democrat part of it.

 

[SilentBull]

Still nothing from ABC. They had Rand at 5% before when everyone else had him at 3.

 

[SilentBull]

Paul and Christie are now tied with 2.86% after the latest NBC Poll (Rand 2%, Christie 1%).

 

[MarcusI]

With the new CNN and the NBC poll from yesterday (and assuming the new ones dont "delete" the old ones), the current average of the polls acknowleged by CNBC are:

In prime time debate:

1. Trump 24.4
2. Carson 19.5
3. Rubio 9.6
4. Fiorina 8.5
5. Bush 8.3
6. Cruz 7.1
7. Huckabee 3.6
8. Paul 3.1
-- Kasich 3.1
10. Christie 3.0


in 2nd tier:

11. Santorum 0.8
12. Jindal 0.4
13. Pataki 0.3
14. Graham 0.1

Not qualified at all:

15. Gilmore 0.0



----------------------------

Paul and Kasich average exactly the same, and Paul at least left Christie behind. Lets hope for more to come! And CNN saved Graham's day by giving him 1 % so he can go to the lowbie debate.

 

[CPUd]

It looks like the ABC/Washington Post polled rand at 2%, and this should be the last poll before the cutoff:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?483924-Leaked-ABC-WaPo-poll

That would have Rand at 3.0% in the average of qualifying polls, also Christie at 3.0%

 

[MarcusI]

It looks like the ABC/Washington Post polled rand at 2%, and this should be the last poll before the cutoff:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?483924-Leaked-ABC-WaPo-poll

That would have Rand at 3.0% in the average of qualifying polls, also Christie at 3.0%

If the leak is correct, than Rand, Christie and Kasich are all exactly the same at 3.00% - and you can already bet on who will be placed on the wings of the stage...

 

[fcreature]

If the leak is correct, than Rand, Christie and Kasich are all exactly the same at 3.00% - and you can already bet on who will be placed on the wings of the stage...

... and who will get the least time.