Call me a troll... here's my case... then I'll shut up.

[RageAgainstDC]

OK, so I've made a few posts this morning regarding how I think we should continue with our movement, and have caught quite a bit of flack for it. I ask you simply to hear me out, give me your thoughts, and I'll contain the discussion to this thread so that I won't piss any more people off.

I think we have to make a 3rd party announcement before the weekend. Supporters are leaving the cause. They see it as hopeless, and for good reason. Winning the republication nomination, though not impossible, is not within the realm of reasonable probability. To do so would require many things to happen, virtually all of which we have no control over. McCain would have to lose. We may or may not have to win 5 states (which alone is a stretch). Then we have to go to a convention and convince Huck's Army to join us instead of simply awarding their delegates, and likely the nomination, to McCain (whom they've shown support for already). Then there are the other neocons we have to sway to make the threshold. It's just not reasonable to believe that is our best bet.

If Ron were to announce a 3rd party run ASAP it would save his candidacy, and with it, our movement's growth. A 3rd party run is extremely unlikely to put us in the White House, but offers far better prospects that continuing to beat the dead republican horse. Ballot access is difficult, but do-able. The media blackout is nothing new. We have the grassroots organization and support to raise the money and get the message out to the extent that would be necessary for a 3rd party run to work.

We would have to start NOW. If people knew Ron was going to be on the ballot in November, a lot of people who weren't supporters before would join up (as it effectively beats the "he can't win" argument). A McCain vs. Hillary general is tailor made for an insurgent campaign like ours to sneak up and win. Half the republican party hates McCain, half the Democrats hate hillary. If a 3rd party candidate could ever be president, this would be the year for it.

So let's say we try and fail. What's the loss? Ron would lose his seat in Congress. That's a decision he would have to make. Personally I would like to think that he would find the movement to be more important. At the very least we will have had another year to pick up support for the cause, bolster our numbers, develop programs to move the movement forward, etc. If we don't go third party, 90% of the support will be gone before the movement ever got off the ground. We need time, and the only way to buy it is with a 3rd party run.

Please don't attack me. I put this here so that we can have an intelligent discussion. I promise you I am not a "paid troll" as was suggested in another thread. I'm just a concerned revolutionary, trying to plot a plan for success that is viable. Please help.

 

[FreeTraveler]

Okay, you've made your case... now shut up.

 

[RageAgainstDC]

...and you wonder why you're the laughing stock of the political world. perhaps you should practice what dr. paul preaches and listen to people and consider their ideas rather than just being an ass to anyone and everyone whose opinion doesn't mirror your own. you treat everyone like this. even new supporters or supporters of other candidates. do you really think yelling "TROLL" every time someone says anything other than "the campaign is correct, we're winning, life is rosy" is going to win any new support? just don't be an ass and we'd be a lot better off..

 

[qwerty]

"In May of 1860, the votes of 233 delegates were required to win the Republican nomination. Abraham Lincoln arrived at that convention starting only with the support of the 22 delegates from Illinois. He went on to win the nomination."

To the subject...

That´s not your or my decicion to make, i will respect what Ron Paul does!

Still I will stand behind this message, will spread this message and will be the change i want to see!

This movement won´t die, we are only beginning, we are now getting "Ron Paul"-people elected everywhere, soon there could be MANY Ron Pauls in the elections!

We must stop speculating, what we must do is CONTINUE SPREADING THIS MESSAGE!

This is the message from the founding fathers, sooner or later people will come to us and demand our rights back with us!

 

[MicheleFloyd]

I'm pleased to read you still support Dr Paul for President.

Rage, why would running a 3rd party save the campaign? You've said it would help but how would it help? I have grave doubts on whether the Media will give Ron Paul his fair share of coverage just because he goes it alone. Winning over voters would be just as challenging then as it is now. The Democrats in my state went to great lengths to keep Ralph Nader's name off the ballot, and they succeeded. I'm certain the Republicans will do the same. My view is to give it more time. Republicans are still split on who gets the nomination so hope is not lost.

 

[RageAgainstDC]

To the subject...

That´s not your or my decicion to make, i will respect what Ron Paul does!

Still I will stand behind this message, will spread this message and will be the change i want to see!

This movement won´t die, we are only beginning, we are now getting "Ron Paul"-people elected everywhere, soon there could be MANY Ron Pauls in the elections!

We must stop speculating, what we must do is CONTINUE SPREADING THIS MESSAGE!

This is the message from the founding fathers, sooner or later people will come to us and demand our rights back with us!

Thank you for a reasoned response. I agree with you on all of your points. It is Dr. Paul's decision to make. I will support him either way as well. Where we differ is our assessment of the current state of our movement. I think we ARE dying. It's not a popular opinion, but face it, people are fair-weather patriots. John Q. Public who may have joined up before now sees it as stupid and futile. Every day more and more people check out and go back to life as usual. We need to stop the bleeding.

Ron will make the call, but I hold the belief that it is in the best interest of the movement to announce ASAP, generate buzz, get people talking again, re-energize the grassroots, and keep the movement growing. Again, I appreciate your input.

 

[gpickett00]

Rage, I agree completely. People can talk about technical delegate rules all day but its not going to spark this movement to tell someone its a "possibility" that there could be a brokered convention. Regarding Lincoln, back then I think its safe to say that the delegates were not as informed as they are now. They were probably more willing to change their vote at the convention. These days, if youre a delegate, you are most likely a diehard supporter because of your knowledge about your candidate. Its going to take a lot to convince the entire movement after getting 4% on super tuesday that we can win the GOP.

 

[RageAgainstDC]

I'm pleased to read you still support Dr Paul for President.

Rage, why would running a 3rd party save the campaign? You've said it would help but how would it help? I have grave doubts on whether the Media will give Ron Paul his fair share of coverage just because he goes it alone. Winning over voters would be just as challenging then as it is now. The Democrats in my state went to great lengths to keep Ralph Nader's name off the ballot, and they succeeded. I'm certain the Republicans will do the same. My view is to give it more time. Republicans are still split on who gets the nomination so hope is not lost.

More time. That is exactly what a 3rd party run will give us. We have to concede defeat in the republican primary, because as long as that is our "goal", it will look to random individual as though we are failing. Noone wants to join a cause that is failing. If we go 3rd party it will re-energize current supporters, offer new hope, and create a lot of buzz. We don't get free media regardless of what party we're running for. I'm not saying it will win him the presidency, I'm saying it will keep the movement growing. It will keep up hope and optimism. It will keep money coming in. It will salvage what's left of the support we have had and allow us time and opportunity to gain more.

 

[RageAgainstDC]

Rage, I agree completely. People can talk about technical delegate rules all day but its not going to spark this movement to tell someone its a "possibility" that there could be a brokered convention. Regarding Lincoln, back then I think its safe to say that the delegates were not as informed as they are now. They were probably more willing to change their vote at the convention. These days, if youre a delegate, you are most likely a diehard supporter because of your knowledge about your candidate. Its going to take a lot to convince the entire movement after getting 4% on super tuesday that we can win the GOP.

Finally.. some love in the room

 

[speciallyblend]

I'm with you, your right on the reality is we are going to run 3rd party or this whole run was just entertainment for the masses.

RON PAUL 2008

 

[Redcard]

Lincoln was an extreme case. He was a centrist, first of all.. and it was thought he could swing the south back in. And if you look at it, Lincoln's election was so disenfranchising, it split the country, quite literally. If you think Ron Paul can walk in with 20 or so delegates and walk out with the nomination.. when everyone else can kingmake each other.. then , I dunno what to say.

Besides, don't you guys hate Lincoln?

 

[RageAgainstDC]

we are polling better as an independent vs. mccain, hillary, and bloomberg than we are as a republican for the nomination (by over two fold). just think about that....

 

[RageAgainstDC]

Lincoln was an extreme case. He was a centrist, first of all.. and it was thought he could swing the south back in. And if you look at it, Lincoln's election was so disenfranchising, it split the country, quite literally. If you think Ron Paul can walk in with 20 or so delegates and walk out with the nomination.. when everyone else can kingmake each other.. then , I dunno what to say.

Besides, don't you guys hate Lincoln?

Another great point raised. Huck and Romney will both likely have the delegates necessary to crown McCain king at the convention, definitely at least one of them will. What's the chance they're going to back us? Cause, you know, they've been sooooo supportive thus far...

 

[qwerty]

Thank you for a reasoned response. I agree with you on all of your points. It is Dr. Paul's decision to make. I will support him either way as well. Where we differ is our assessment of the current state of our movement. I think we ARE dying. It's not a popular opinion, but face it, people are fair-weather patriots. John Q. Public who may have joined up before now sees it as stupid and futile. Every day more and more people check out and go back to life as usual. We need to stop the bleeding.

Ron will make the call, but I hold the belief that it is in the best interest of the movement to announce ASAP, generate buzz, get people talking again, re-energize the grassroots, and keep the movement growing. Again, I appreciate your input.

I disagree!

I claim that easily most of the AMERICANS CAN`T STILL EVEN TELL WHERE RON PAUL STANDS ON THE ISSUES! So, it´s pretty logical that they won´t vote for him!

Think movement isn´t dying, it´s beginning...The Ron Paul-people are starting to run locally and that´s the way to spread this message!

Remember sooner or later people will be crying to get a man like Ron Paul elected, The day will come when majority of the people will want their freedom back, if we work hard it could come sooner than we think!

Back to these elections...

I trust on Ron Paul, I think he knows what he´s doing and i will support his decicion. That´s why i won´t waste my time on thinking 3-party run. Instead of wasting my time on that, i will spread this message even harder!

FOCUS ON GETTING ELECTED LOCALLY! TAKE OVER YOUR LOCAL POLITICS!

 

[jaumen]

OK, so I've made a few posts this morning regarding how I think we should continue with our movement, and have caught quite a bit of flack for it. I ask you simply to hear me out, give me your thoughts, and I'll contain the discussion to this thread so that I won't piss any more people off.

I think we have to make a 3rd party announcement before the weekend. Supporters are leaving the cause. They see it as hopeless, and for good reason. Winning the republication nomination, though not impossible, is not within the realm of reasonable probability. To do so would require many things to happen, virtually all of which we have no control over. McCain would have to lose. We may or may not have to win 5 states (which alone is a stretch). Then we have to go to a convention and convince Huck's Army to join us instead of simply awarding their delegates, and likely the nomination, to McCain (whom they've shown support for already). Then there are the other neocons we have to sway to make the threshold. It's just not reasonable to believe that is our best bet.

If Ron were to announce a 3rd party run ASAP it would save his candidacy, and with it, our movement's growth. A 3rd party run is extremely unlikely to put us in the White House, but offers far better prospects that continuing to beat the dead republican horse. Ballot access is difficult, but do-able. The media blackout is nothing new. We have the grassroots organization and support to raise the money and get the message out to the extent that would be necessary for a 3rd party run to work.

We would have to start NOW. If people knew Ron was going to be on the ballot in November, a lot of people who weren't supporters before would join up (as it effectively beats the "he can't win" argument). A McCain vs. Hillary general is tailor made for an insurgent campaign like ours to sneak up and win. Half the republican party hates McCain, half the Democrats hate hillary. If a 3rd party candidate could ever be president, this would be the year for it.

So let's say we try and fail. What's the loss? Ron would lose his seat in Congress. That's a decision he would have to make. Personally I would like to think that he would find the movement to be more important. At the very least we will have had another year to pick up support for the cause, bolster our numbers, develop programs to move the movement forward, etc. If we don't go third party, 90% of the support will be gone before the movement ever got off the ground. We need time, and the only way to buy it is with a 3rd party run.

Please don't attack me. I put this here so that we can have an intelligent discussion. I promise you I am not a "paid troll" as was suggested in another thread. I'm just a concerned revolutionary, trying to plot a plan for success that is viable. Please help.

For what it's worth, I more or less agree with you. I am voting this tuesday for Paul in the MD Primary... but I don't see a way that he could win the nomination.... we needed to at least win A state by now. I'd love to see a 3rd party or independent run by Paul... I don't, however, think that is going to happen. But I will continue to hope the unexpected and unforeseen, maybe someting will turn this election upside-down yet... who knows.

 

[RageAgainstDC]

well, atleast we can all agree that we need to keep working on a local level regardless of what happens with this campaign.

 

[qwerty]

original article at http://ron-paul-campaign.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, February 5, 2008
The Super Tuesday Winner

So what is the strategy for Super Tuesday? Who will win BIG on today's Super Tuesday of voting? Will it be Senator McCain? (The crowd begins to cheer!) Will it be Governor Romney? (The crowd continues to cheer!) How about Governor Huckabee? (The crowd cheers again!) Or how about that US Constitutional guy... err... what's his name... Congressman... oh yah, Ron Paul? (The crowd starts to laugh!) -- Yes, sounds familiar, right? And so the media continues to report "who won what" and so on and so forth, with of course, no mentioning of that silly Congressman anywhere.

And as the Ron Paul supporters continue to fight back their tears while questioning, "How can this be? I don't get it! I thought we'd make a dent by now?!!", the Ron Paul Headquarters begins to board the "The Ron Paul Express Train", with nothing but confident smiles, because after all, you need a freight train to carry the message of freedom, and more importantly... ALL THE DELEGATES THAT COME WITH IT!!!

"I don't understand -- what do you mean? He lost the delegates in the states because FOX NEWS reported it that way!" Yes, I know... and they also reported that Al Gore won as President -- or have you forgotten? Isn't it funny how IGNORANT Fox News really is? Well, I say ignorant and maybe that isn't really fair -- so let's just say that they choose to show their viewers what they want the people to see. You see, the results we are seeing on TV is not really what is actually occurring, but the media likes to "dumb it down" for America because it would take too much time to explain how the Delegates really choose their candidate, and so they try and keep it simple. And many people like simple -- because simple is good. Heck, I like simple too. However, sometimes keeping things too simple, as is the case with an election, can be very misleading. Yes I know, it sounds complicated and I was once there myself -- so allow me to further explain.

Have you heard of the expression that all of this is really a "Beauty Contest?" Well, this is true, because nothing is set in stone yet. The reason why the media is keeping it simple is because MANY of the states are a winner-take-all state, meaning if a candidate wins the popular vote of the state, they get to keep all the delegates that come with that state -- however, what the media isn't telling you (because statistically speaking, it's highly unlikely) is that ANY DELEGATE can change their mind and vote for whomever they want when it comes time at the convention -- which is when the voting REALLY MATTERS.

"I see. But I still don't understand the whole primary/caucus thing, choosing delegates and how or why it's important?" Let me break that down for you in a nutshell.

First, let me describe what a Delegate is. Delegates are the people who you trust to do the voting at the GOP convention on your party's behalf, so to speak. So basically, you vote on a delegate who supports the candidate you want to win. Anyone can be a delegate as long they fulfill the requirements set out by the state. If you want to be a delegate (which is important to the Ron paul campaign), you can just announce it at the caucus meeting. But you have to bring enough people to vote for you to be a delegate. The more delegates you have in a district, the better, because then there are caucuses for state delegates -- whereby all the district delegates vote on who will be a state delegates. States are assigned a certain number of "state delegates" to represent the state, which is what the whole "Beauty Contest" is about -- it sort of help determines which candidate will receive those delegates. Since many states are a "winner takes all" -- this means that all the delegates will go to the popular vote winner, whereas some states award delegates by percentages.

A caucus is basically a convention held in districts whereby party members gather to hear speeches made about the candidates. The people that attend the caucus (which can be ANYONE) then vote for delegates to represent the candidates at the party's convention. Each district has a certain number of delegates, which depends on who gets voted by the people. State rules and regulations do vary, as some only allow voters to participate in their party’s primary (such as you must be registered as a republican to vote in the republican primaries), while other states have no party restrictions and allow voters to participate in any single primary they choose. Now this is important to understand -- because the more delegates your candidate has, the better. And in MOST (if not all) situations, the turnout of these caucuses are spread so thin because very few people show up to be a delegate, that someone can utterly "steal" the victory away from the popular vote winner (if awarded by percentage) because they had more delegates in a certain district representing them. An example would be Obama in Nevada, who lost by popular vote, but actually received more delegates because the districts by which he won had more delegates than Clinton did. But we'll come back to this a little later.

Now a primary is what most of us are used to. Voters go to the polls, select their candidate and help determine the percentage of the state's delegates. The person who wins the state (if by the winner-take-all policy) supposedly wins all the delegates too -- but here's the rub... do they really win all the delegates? In a typical situation, this is likely the case. The percentages of a state's delegates are broken down to show how many delegates are from each of the candidates running. For example, in Maine, Romney won the popular vote by a landslide right? Therefore, he is rewarded all the delegates of that state. McCain came in second with Ron Paul coming in a very close third place. However, Ron Paul had A LOT MORE DELEGATES that supported him than McCain did, so realistically speaking, Ron Paul came in second in the delegate count. How is this important? It isn't YET, but patience Grasshopper, and you will begin to see the light.

Ok, so I said I would come back to how someone can "steal" a victory. From what I know, this is how it works -- in a brokered convention, ANY STATE DELEGATE IS NOT BOUND TO VOTE FOR ANY PARTICULAR CANDIDATE. Did you get that? While they were selected to best represent their own candidate, what would happen if their candidate dropped out? Their candidate would likely endorse another candidate, right? And it makes sense that the state delegates would support whomever their candidate endorsed, right? But here's where it gets sticky... would they really support whomever their candidate endorsed? A perfect example of that would have been Giuliani who endorsed McCain after he dropped out -- which should have added to the popular vote count for McCain to easily win the state of Maine since he had Giuliani supporters too, right? But McCain lost to Romney. As I said in a previous article, this is not a typical election and there is clearly no real front runner -- at least not what the media is making it out like.

It is my opinion that people are awake now and are not voting in the typical mannerisms of the past elections. People are very angry right now, confused right now and are still unsure of who they would support -- but more important than that, they now understand that it's ok to change their minds and actually vote who's right for office rather than vote for who's right for the party. If there was a clear front runner, then someone would have an enormous lead by now, yes? But this is not the case. And according to the GOP rules, a candidate must enter the convention in September with 51% of the delegates from all the states or else the election will go to a brokered convention... and that is where the pay off will be, because delegates will now have to make things right by voting. BUT, the question is, "Who will they vote for?"

Is your eyebrow raising? Are you getting it yet?!! You're starting to smirk, aren't you? Yessssss, suddenly, all those supposed state delegates that the candidate "thought" he had in the bag from the states (according the media and beauty contests) now suddenly don't look too promising, because they (the delegates) now have the power, and more importantly, the right to change their mind. Now here's the beauty of it all -- there is NOTHING anyone can do about it.

"Yes, I get it now, but c'mon, what are the odds these delegates will vote for Ron Paul?" Well, there is no guarantee -- but let's look at it this logically... this will likely create negative publicity for the so called "front runner", as this candidate will now be seen BY MANY PEOPLE as being weak, not to mention careless, because HE DIDN'T SEE IT COMING. And nobody wants a weak, let alone careless President. A brokered convention hasn't occurred since God knows how long ago - which is why many people still disagree and say it won't happen. However, I believe the odds are in favor this year for one to happen, as do many others, and here's the funny part... if it does, can you imagine the media coverage on that one? The media, all which completely blacked out Ron Paul, is actually responsible for making it all happen because he slipped in "under the radar."

This is why the likelihood of a 3rd party run by Ron Paul is not realistic nor in the playing cards (at this point.) Statistically speaking, he has a better chance of getting those unsure delegates to vote for him than he would at getting a majority to win during a third party run for Presidency. Third party runs are very expensive and get zero media coverage and aren't likely to be invited for debates -- but winning the Republican nomination gets him the best seat in the house, to relay his thoughts on the issues at hand and to eventually prove to America that he is the best choice for President.

So who's the big winner of Super Tuesday? I think it's more like who's the big WEINER of Tuesday. All Aboooooard!!!


http://www.dailypaul.com/node/34128

This is good one!

 

[Exarel]

Honestly, the biggest problem i've felt is that the canvassing was started too late. At least for me. I wish i had more time. 3rd party gives that. More importantly though, one of the biggest obstacles is the fact that he is labeled as republican as they are seen today, so they don't research or want to listen. I think people could rally after him as independent. I would certainly continue my efforts.

 

[qwerty]

well, atleast we can all agree that we need to keep working on a local level regardless of what happens with this campaign.

Yes, that´s crucial!

Get elected and change the politics!

 

[Bruce4Ron]

I'm not convinced a 3rd party run would result in anything much different than what we witnessed last night.

Explain to me why the MSM would entertain us on their shows. THey ignored us before and they'd now have even more (possibly more justified) reasons to ignore us now. Explain to me all of these hidden americans who just want an independent candidate.

Here is the truth. We got single digit percentages last night for half the country. Logic tells you that this same pattern will follow throughout.

The whole purpose of this movement is to do just what the name says. Create a movement. Open the eyes of some Americans who care and will do something about it. We cannot do anything until Ron Paul tells us what the goal is. If the goal is to win the White House then its time he makes a hard decision. He's not a dumb man and he has to realize the delegate count is more of an uphill fight than an independent run.

I want Ron Paul to tell me what I should be doing. Because right now, I have no clue what strategy to implement any longer. Last night was an uppercut to the jaw.