Brokered Convention and how to still get to it

[John F Kennedy III]

I tell you guys, after the 2008 campaign I felt that I personally did not work hard enough. This campaign I STILL think I'm not working hard enough. We need to KEEP GOING and do everything we can to either get ourselves to Tampa or try to contact some who are going and (gently) talk some sense into them. From what I've read, even BOUND delegates can vote for someone other than their candidate in the FIRST round. Depends on the state, but they might get a fine or wost case they might be replaced by their alternate...

DON'T STOP !!!

Is this true?

 

[tbone717]

Is this true?

No it's not. In reality bound delegates really don't "vote" in the first round, because the state party rules already dictate who their vote is going to.

Unless Paul pulls off something miraculous on the 24th, the RNC is going to be very uneventful and there will be a lot of disappointed Paul supporters who were expecting some sort of uprising.

 

[John F Kennedy III]

No it's not. In reality bound delegates really don't "vote" in the first round, because the state party rules already dictate who their vote is going to.

Oh ok. So they are just automatically tabulated under whatever candidate they are bound to.

 

[jbauer]

that would be the point of calling them bound wouldn't it?

 

[tbone717]

Oh ok. So they are just automatically tabulated under whatever candidate they are bound to.

As far as I understand it.

And honestly, we may be at a point where Paul cannot be nominated from the floor. With Santorum suspending, and potentially releasing his delegates Paul is going to have a hard time getting that plurality of 5 states.

 

[PaulSoHard]

We can only hope that Santorum's delegates have a mind of their own and realize that Ron is the best candidate that actually reflects with their policies. If they're going into this race with a "we need to defeat Obama and Romney's the only one who can" mentality the GOP is screwed and we will be as well.

 

[tbone717]

We can only hope that Santorum's delegates have a mind of their own and realize that Ron is the best candidate that actually reflects with their policies. If they're going into this race with a "we need to defeat Obama and Romney's the only one who can" mentality the GOP is screwed and we will be as well.

Personally, I don't even think it will come to that. If I did the math correctly, unless Paul wins big on the 24th he is mathematically out of contention. Possibly Newt as well, but I didn't do the math on him.

 

[TulsaRevolution]

No it's not. In reality bound delegates really don't "vote" in the first round, because the state party rules already dictate who their vote is going to.

Unless Paul pulls off something miraculous on the 24th, the RNC is going to be very uneventful and there will be a lot of disappointed Paul supporters who were expecting some sort of uprising.

In Oklahoma to become a national delegate, they make you submit a notarized affidavit stating that you will vote for the candidate whom received the support of the Presidential Preference Primary held on Super Tuesday. So for you to vote your own personal desire during the first round would simply go up to a legal challenge. I'm pretty sure it wouldn't hold up after delegates become unbound, but it is pretty iron-clad about the initial bound-delegate round of votes.

 

[tbone717]

In Oklahoma to become a national delegate, they make you submit a notarized affidavit stating that you will vote for the candidate whom received the support of the Presidential Preference Primary held on Super Tuesday. So for you to vote your own personal desire during the first round would simply go up to a legal challenge. I'm pretty sure it wouldn't hold up after delegates become unbound, but it is pretty iron-clad about the initial bound-delegate round of votes.

And I am sure most other states have something similar in place.

 

[rpwi]

Of the 2286 available delegates...Paul and Gingrich will have to get 1144 to keep Romney from winning first ballot. This isn't possible... This horse is dieing...and we need to get on a better one. The LP nomination is coming up...if Paul acts quickly he can secure nomination and have a much better chance of winning the presidency as a third party candidate (Obama and Romney are so unpopuplar). He also has a great chance to influence the national platform. Republican nomination is a deadend...but we weren't given a fair shake by the media and the establishment in the GOP. Time for Paul to seek the LP nomination before they hold their convention. If we wait too long, we will have almost no shot at ballot access as a third party.

 

[parocks]

No chance of a brokered convention. None at all.

Definitely still is a chance. The chances got slimmer. At some point we'll be talking about the chances of Romney dying before Tampa, because, probably, that will be the only chance we have of a brokered convention. At some point, it's likely that "Romney has won" will argue with "what if he dies?"

 

[mmadness]

BE A DELEGATE FOR ANYBODY AND EVERYBODY AND GET YOUR ASS TO TAMPA



This is the strategy and always has been. When the votes end, then we can step back and get a grasp of our numbers, both secret and open, but until then just work to get to the convention. All of our best outcomes center around trying to control the RNC, so enough of this wondering about our goals and whether they are still possible or not - JUST GET TO TAMPA

This.

 

[John F Kennedy III]

Definitely still is a chance. The chances got slimmer. At some point we'll be talking about the chances of Romney dying before Tampa, because, probably, that will be the only chance we have of a brokered convention. At some point, it's likely that "Romney has won" will argue with "what if he dies?"

Ok what are the odds? What's the estimated breakdown we need to get vs the amount of delegates left? I'm sure someone will make a thread of it at some point. I'm just curious.

 

[CTRattlesnake]

Ok what are the odds? What's the estimated breakdown we need to get vs the amount of delegates left? I'm sure someone will make a thread of it at some point. I'm just curious.

I did the math before.

Romney needs to win less than 48% of the remaining delegates to not get to 1144.....and thats EXCLUDING the unbound delegates and super delegates.


So yeah...its not going to happen.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a better chance of winning the cup this year.

 

[Ivash]

The only good thing I can see out of this is picking up Santorum supporters and the media not being able to ignore us as easily.

They'll just say what they're already saying- that the primary is over.

I believe that t would require an act of the Holy One for a brokered convention to occur.

 

[TheGrinch]

They'll just say what they're already saying- that the primary is over.

You're not a supporter and now being negative about our chances. Please leave already if you're going to reinforce the media's BS that the race is over or it's hopeless. It is not at all helpful to our efforts and the stakes are far too high to EVER give up.

 

[Aratus]

tampa writes the 2012 gop platform and the rule book 2016 runs by

 

[Revolution9]

Me too. RPF has become a ghost town.

I have a bit of time now to post again. I was not run off by loser attitudes. I am a one man show building an MMORPG based on canines and their behaviors and mechanics and it takes 14+ hours a day of my time currently.

Santorum dropping out is great. This puts Romney in a precarious position as he cannot alienate us and keep the Republican Party viable. Gingrich amounts to horse crap in a handbag..like an irritating fly.. Of some consequence in gaining total focus but really of no consequence in the bigger picture if the buzzing is ignored. Ron is still the only one who can play this game with the hand he has held for 30 years. He does not have to compromise anything and will not do so regardless. This puts Romney in an interesting quandry. You will see the more intelligent of the pundits address this over the next week. And what will they do about RP?? They cannot bash him with attack ads without lying about something previously debunked and they know it. I still recall the way Romney looked at Dr Paul during the debates when he would drop truth bombs about how things really worked. Romney has a way of looking interested in that businessman's style of "Oh yes..I am hanging on your every word" whilst they scheme how to close the deal. But the way he was looking at Ron was with interest and admiration. I have only seen one video of Romney's old man and it was from 1972 with him railing about being spoonfed propaganda by the generals and diplomats in the 60's when he toured Viet Nam. He as righteously pissed they took him for a ride as it offended his intellectual sensibilities. Now. Some of that has rubbed off on Romney junior. Ergo when he sees Ron take his stances against pre-emptive war I believe his emotional mind hearkens back to his father and the honor that he felt he had about such things.

And that is my take straight from the Universe hacked out as I wrote it.

Rev9

 

[Revolution9]

They'll just say what they're already saying- that the primary is over.

I believe that t would require an act of the Holy One for a brokered convention to occur.

An Act of God has derailed many a well planned enterprise. It is why almost every contract has a Force Majeure section in it abrogating the entire obligations under the contract should an Act of God befall it during ongoing execution of contractual duties and obligations.

Rev9

 

[cindy25]

Virginia proved one on one with Romney is viable.

Romney will sit back, do nothing and could get the shock of his life on April 24th.