Breaking on Drudge... new Rasmussen Iowa poll.

[TwoJ]

Not too bad. Being within 5% in a Rasmuseen poll is fantastic!

Ya I don't want to start a bandwagon that discredits this poll just because he is in 3rd and not 2nd. I'd say we are right around 20% in general giving the margin of error with the other polls.

Good stuff!

 

[EBounding]

If Gingrich was over 30 and Paul was under 15, I'd be worried. Just shows we need to keep doing what we're doing.

 

[MRoCkEd]

Consistent with us being within close striking distance. I think PPP is more accurate than Rasmussen, TBH.

 

[IndianaPolitico]

Consistent with us being within close striking distance. I think PPP is more accurate than Rasmussen, TBH.

Especially during the last 30 days.

 

[Original_Intent]

This is the best result we have had in a Rasmussen poll by far - I was shocked it was that high...I think they realize that they have under three weeks to adjust their polls to reality, and this is the beginning. Rasmussen has always beent he worst polling and the out-lier (liar?) by far. This is a positive sign.

 

[Patrick Henry]

Looks good to me! We can do this guys. We just need to keep on truckin'! This is the closest Ras has had the good Dr.

 

[pmbug]

Is this registered republican only or does it include independants as well

The survey of 750 Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Participants was conducted on December 13, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ction/iowa/iowa_romney_23_gingrich_20_paul_18

The table on that page shows (comparing this poll to their last):

Mitt Romney +4%
Newt Gingrich -12%
Ron Paul +8%
Jon Huntsman +3%
Herman Cain -13% (went to 0 because he withdrew)
Rick Perry +4%
Michele Bachmann +3%
Rick Santorum +1%

Looks like most candidates benefited 3-4% from Gingrich's fall + Cain's dropping out. Ron is the only one who exceeded that threshold with a spectacular 8% rise. Looks like Ron benefited more than any other candidate from recent events.

 

[georgiaboy]

This is the best result we have had in a Rasmussen poll by far - I was shocked it was that high...I think they realize that they have under three weeks to adjust their polls to reality, and this is the beginning. Rasmussen has always beent he worst polling and the out-lier (liar?) by far. This is a positive sign.

Completely agree. This is great for us to be neck in neck for first place in a Rasmussen poll.

 

[matt0611]

what is the difference from the last Rasmussen poll?

 

[IndianaPolitico]

what is the difference from the last Rasmussen poll?

He is up by 8%. Here is a video that Rasmusen did.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ction/iowa/iowa_romney_23_gingrich_20_paul_18

 

[rp08orbust]

Newt started tanking hard everywhere on Intrade about an hour ago--this poll is probably the cause.

 

[pmbug]

See my last post.

 

[bluesc]

I don't like Huntsman moving up at all. Anyway, these numbers are good, especially considering it's coming from Rasmussen.

 

[MomsBasement]

Let's not forget how quickly things can change. Check out this article from the 2004 dem caucus: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/18/u...l-ball-gets-cloudy.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

The part about Dean's erosion seems particularly instructive for us.

 

[justatrey]

Rasmussen polls belong in Hot Topics imo. If they're willing to show us this close we're in good shape!

 

[IndianaPolitico]

Let's not forget how quickly things can change. Check out this article from the 2004 dem caucus: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/18/u...l-ball-gets-cloudy.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

The part about Dean's erosion seems particularly instructive for us.

All the more reason to work even harder!

 

[Indiana4Paul]

I don't like Huntsman moving up at all. Anyway, these numbers are good, especially considering it's coming from Rasmussen.

If these numbers are real for Huntsman then he will end up one of the 'winners' from the Iowa Caucus. MSM will be spinning this as a good showing and could give him a big boost heading into NH.


Of course a Ron Paul win, particularly by any kind of margin, will make him the main story. Donate!

 

[wgadget]

If these numbers are real for Huntsman then he will end up one of the 'winners' from the Iowa Caucus. MSM will be spinning this as a good showing and could give him a big boost heading into NH.


Of course a Ron Paul win, particularly by any kind of margin, will make him the main story. Donate!

Is Huntsman even competing in Iowa?

 

[mwkaufman]

Since their last poll Cain and Gingrich have dropped a combined 25%, and Paul has picked up a third of it. If it fell proportionally, you'd expect Romney to gain 9%, Paul to gain 5%, and Perry and Bachmann to gain 3%.

This is Romney's best number in Iowa since October, and quite inconsistent with the other three Iowa polls just conducted that show him over 3% behind Paul. I still think the Rasmussen model is going to underestimate Paul's support.

 

[trey4sports]

lol - I remebr when we would go APESHIT over a polls showing us @ 18%. Now it's like meh, whatever.