Black Friday?

[Krugminator2]

I am hugely stuck and deserve ridicule and have been wrong about this whole thing, but.... still think we see the biggest short term up move in percentage terms in stock market history out of this. I have a dozen or so indicators I look at and they are all off the charts historically.

SPY at 239.5 right now.

Not that this matters or I should get much credit but

Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

 

[oyarde]

Not that this matters or I should get much credit but

Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

I saw that , back over 22K . These are big swings , fastest ever 30 percent drop , then best three days since 1931 .

 

[devil21]

I saw that , back over 22K . These are big swings , fastest ever 30 percent drop , then best three days since 1931 .

It's now the same exact pattern I mentioned earlier in the thread, -every day-. Markets clearly want to sell off to reflect the reality of everything going on but are simply not being allowed to. As soon as indexes go red in the morning, large chunks are bought pushing back into the green and this is rinsed and repeated several times until the algos eventually "learn" for the day to stay green and buy higher. Then it's off to the races again. Oil crashes again? Stocks green. Oil rises? Stocks green. I mean really, who the hell is buying cruise lines on the news they're going to take on more debt???

 

[oyarde]

It's now the same exact pattern I mentioned earlier in the thread, -every day-. Markets clearly want to sell off to reflect the reality of everything going on but are simply not being allowed to. As soon as indexes go red in the morning, large chunks are bought pushing back into the green and this is rinsed and repeated several times until the algos eventually "learn" for the day to stay green and buy higher. Then it's off to the races again. Oil crashes again? Stocks green. Oil rises? Stocks green. I mean really, who the hell is buying cruise lines???

Personally , I laugh at anyone buying cruise lines. I do not even consider that a legitimate business . No different than investing with a crack dealer I guess.

 

[Krugminator2]

It's now the same exact pattern I mentioned earlier in the thread, -every day-. Markets clearly want to sell off to reflect the reality of everything going on but are simply not being allowed to. As soon as indexes go red in the morning, large chunks are bought pushing back into the green and this is rinsed and repeated several times until the algos eventually "learn" for the day to stay green and buy higher. Then it's off to the races again. Oil crashes again? Stocks green. Oil rises? Stocks green. I mean really, who the hell is buying cruise lines on the news they're going to take on more debt???

You have end of quarter rebalancing. Pensions and stock and bond funds have to rebalance to get their target weight of stocks to bonds back into balance which means buying stocks which got hammered relative to bonds.

Longer term the combination of QE infinity and the big deficits are bullish for stocks. Everyone thinks is a bear market. We'll see. I will use one more selloff on negative virus news to buy with longer term money. The tables are set for a raging bull market over the next 12 months. Wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't go up like 1999. Everyone thought the market was done in 97 and 98 then you had a blowoff run up. This sell off seems like a potential fake out.

 

[oyarde]

I wanna party likes is 1999 but I'm 30 years older .

 

[devil21]

You have end of quarter rebalancing. Pensions and stock and bond funds have to rebalance to get their target weight of stocks to bonds back into balance which means buying stocks which got hammered relative to bonds.

Longer term the combination of QE infinity and the big deficits are bullish for stocks. Everyone thinks is a bear market. We'll see. I will use one more selloff on negative virus news to buy with longer term money. The tables are set for a raging bull market over the next 12 months. Wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't go up like 1999. Everyone thought the market was done in 97 and 98 then you had a blowoff run up. This sell off seems like a potential fake out.

The problem with your theory is that it's literally the exact same pattern every day now, excluding last Friday, since last Monday. Go look at the charts. It's blatant. The PPT is clearly putting a floor under the markets daily and not allowing more sell-offs.

eta: in a big picture sense you may be right but that doesn't explain the daily pattern that has clearly emerged, which shows the full force of the PPT/ESF being used to prevent markets from behaving rationally on what is happening now and in the near future. OTOH I probably should use this engineered bounce to buy more super cheap puts instead of complaining....hmm

 

[Krugminator2]

The problem with your theory is that it's literally the exact same pattern every day now, excluding last Friday, since last Monday. Go look at the charts. It's blatant. The PPT is clearly putting a floor under the markets daily and not allowing more sell-offs.

eta: in a big picture sense you may be right but that doesn't explain the daily pattern that has clearly emerged, which shows the full force of the PPT/ESF being used to prevent markets from behaving rationally on what is happening now and in the near future.

The plunge protection team would have no reason to be in the market right now. The market isn't plunging.

Rational would be for the markets to go up. You had historically oversold on all time frames, massive QE and a fiscal bill that is 10% of GDP. Trump is bulling up an infrastructure bill. I think/hope volatility comes back after April 1. Would be nice to see one more sell off attempt. No rational reason to be bearish now. Once in a decade bull opportunity setting up.

 

[devil21]

The plunge protection team would have no reason to be in the market right now. The market isn't plunging.

Rational would be for the markets to go up. You had historically oversold on all time frames, massive QE and a fiscal bill that is 10% of GDP. Trump is bulling up an infrastructure bill. I think/hope volatility comes back after April 1. Would be nice to see one more sell off attempt. No rational reason to be bearish now. Once in a decade bull opportunity setting up.

Naaaa, not buying it. Markets want to sell off every day but aren't being allowed to. This bounce looks too engineered to be legit (and historically always happens during crashes) and has the feel of everybody running for the doors while the hidden hand holds the door open a bit longer. Until it slams shut and people are left holding stocks in a lot of dead companies, denominated in a worthless currency. The "essential" companies (Agenda 2030) will be funded through bond sales. The rest left for dead as "unsustainable", since non-state sanctioned is against socialist policy.

eta: speaking of patterns, i should post rigging complaint posts more often. indexes go red right after i do lol

 

[devil21]

Markets rightly tanked on the 6.6m unemployment figure this morning but then Trump quickly rides in on his brown bull with a bs comment about the oil markets to reverse everything back into the green. Greatest day trading market manipulator ever!

 

[devil21]

Not that this matters or I should get much credit but

Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Gotta say that your call on the massive rebound was pretty good. Historically there's always a ~50% bounce after the initial sell-off before seeing new lows but this rally is indeed higher than I thought possible. Of course it's mostly pushed up by the money printer handing cash to Citadel and Blackrock to trade index funds back and forth all day long, but it was still a good call on your part.

I gotta stop thinking that markets reflect anything other than the Fed's ability to punch numbers into a computer and jawbone the algos...

 

[Krugminator2]

Gotta say that your call on the massive rebound was pretty good. Historically there's always a ~50% bounce after the initial sell-off before seeing new lows but this rally is indeed higher than I thought possible. Of course it's mostly pushed up by the money printer handing cash to Citadel and Blackrock to trade index funds back and forth all day long, but it was still a good call on your part.

I gotta stop thinking that markets reflect anything other than the Fed's ability to punch numbers into a computer and jawbone the algos...

I can't get them all wrong. The Fed said they were buying infinite bonds which is bullish for stocks.

It makes no sense for the market to keep going up at this point but people are so bearish that it probably doesn't rollover. not sure how much higher it can go though.

I would use Shopify as a leading indicator for when to turn bearish or be bullish. When that gets heavy and starts dropping that will probably be a sign the market is heavy. If it somehow makes new highs probably means the market is headed up. You have a stock trading at higher multiples than Microsoft and Amazon sold at during the height of the dot com bubble. Insiders sold $125 million worth of stock earlier this year at much lower prices yet it is trading at $633 up from an IPO around $30 a few years ago. Shopify is fundamentally hot trash and will be trading 50% lower over the next few years. But when the market wants up, it wants up.

 

[devil21]

I can't get them all wrong. The Fed said they were buying infinite bonds which is bullish for stocks.

It makes no sense for the market to keep going up at this point but people are so bearish that it probably doesn't rollover. not sure how much higher it can go though.

I would use Shopify as a leading indicator for when to turn bearish or be bullish. When that gets heavy and starts dropping that will probably be a sign the market is heavy. If it somehow makes new highs probably means the market is headed up. You have a stock trading at higher multiples than Microsoft and Amazon sold at during the height of the dot com bubble. Insiders sold $125 million worth of stock earlier this year at much lower prices yet it is trading at $633 up from an IPO around $30 a few years ago. Shopify is fundamentally hot trash and will be trading 50% lower over the next few years. But when the market wants up, it wants up.

My longer term view still hasn't changed that the floor will fall out again but the coordinated orchestration of the markets recently is impressive, I gotta say. Today a negative 4.8% GDP print was front-run by moments by another fake news remdisiv-whatever drug headline. The algos shot right past the GDP print without a twitch. Also timing up the Fed's announcement shortly on the same day also, where Powell will probably promise more infinite printing for Wall St. GDP crash, what GDP crash? It's quite a sight to see how the actual economy is imploding in fast fashion while markets march right back up to where they were before this all started.

Having said that, I have a close eye on this friday, May 1. May 1 is an important "sacrifice" holiday, Beltaine, for those that run this whole illusion. Maybe a "bull" will be sacrificed.....better that than real people.

 

[Krugminator2]

My longer term view still hasn't changed that the floor will fall out again but the coordinated orchestration of the markets recently is impressive, I gotta say. Today a negative 4.8% GDP print was front-run by moments by another fake news remdisiv-whatever drug headline.

Having said that, I have a close eye on this friday, May 1. May 1 is an important "sacrifice" holiday, Beltaine, for those that run this whole illusion. Maybe a "bull" will be sacrificed.....better that than real people.

I don't have a super strong opinion at this point. I think the most likely scenario is the market grinds marginally higher because people are still so bearish but after the last bears are squeezed to death I think there will be a big correction when no one is thinking about it. Might take a couple of months or to the fall to get to that point. Tough to be a bear in the market.

Tech stocks are hitting Dot com bubble valuations. Shopify is the bellwether. Just hit 750 bucks today. When that rolls over, I think the market follows. I have literally heard no one talk about how weak financials are. They are sending a loud message that something isn't right. I suspect things are a lot worse fundamentally in the economy than just virus closing things down.

 

[devil21]

I don't have a super strong opinion at this point. I think the most likely scenario is the market grinds marginally higher because people are still so bearish but after the last bears are squeezed to death I think there will be a big correction when no one is thinking about it. Might take a couple of months or to the fall to get to that point. Tough to be a bear in the market.

Tech stocks are hitting Dot com bubble valuations. Shopify is the bellwether. Just hit 750 bucks today. When that rolls over, I think the market follows. I have literally heard no one talk about how weak financials are. They are sending a loud message that something isn't right. I suspect things are a lot worse fundamentally in the economy than just virus closing things down.

It's all broken now and there's no point in even trying to mess with markets. No price discovery, no bid/offer spreads worth a shit, etc now that the Fed/Treas has effectively said it will fuck up every pricing structure out there on a whim. My long term view has always been that the Fed/Treas will end up owning everything and then the Fed nationalized (note: a case for Fed dissolution due to violation of the FRA can already be made under 13(3) with this apparent venture into buying worthless junk bonds via ETFs, neither of which 13(3) allows, on top of money laundering, price fixing, insider trading, you name it, actions that are literally federal criminal offenses under RICO for everyone).

I'm just sitting on some long deep OTM puts, watching the whole system burn while under a pile of loving dogs. There's not much else to do market-wise. I did note that May 1 was the introduction of the HR6666 TRACE Act, so there was Congress' homage to the holiday. Markets have otherwise been sideways and dead overall at the index level for the last month and no one without inside information wants to touch anything with a 10 foot pole unless it's FANG surveillance/Agenda2030 stocks. The two points I'm watching for are when traders go back onto the NYSE floor and when/if the circuit breaker changes that Citadel is asking for are made. If and when those two things happen together, the trap door falling out probably isn't far behind. (Also see my post below about 2806 on the S&P)

(traders returning to NYSE floor on May 26)
(CBOE options traders on the floor on June 15)

(no news on circuit breaker changes lately but watch this space)

 

[devil21]

According to a recent report by algo analyzing firm Nomura, posted to ZH a couple weeks ago, 2806 on the S&P is the turning point for algos to flip back to heavy SELL. Explains why 2806 has been defended by the hidden hand at least twice in the last couple weeks and today is a fight to stay near 2806. PPT workin' hard these days...


eta: 2806 continues to be defended, happening again today (friday) with same pattern as yesterday (thursday). PPT does NOT want algos flipping to sell.

 

[Krugminator2]

Some random charts for to zero to one people who might be interested.

"Trading stocks was among the most common uses for the government stimulus checks in nearly every income bracket, according to software and data aggregation company Envestnet Yodlee." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/man...ck-to-trade-stocks.html?__source=twitter|main


Bored Day Traders Locked at Home Are Now Obsessed With Options https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...bored-day-traders-locked-inside?sref=vuYGislZ

Still don't think the market goes straight down. Think the Nasdaq makes all time highs and the the S&P 500 has a move up to fake people out but we shall see. Do think the market will dump before the election based on the above links.

See a lot of fever brains bragging about how much money they are making and a forex thread on this site in the Personal Prosperity section. Combine that with a stock like Shopify trading at 60 times sales (not earnings) and people lapping that up as the new normal and think that means things are closer to the end than the beginning but we shall see.

 

[devil21]

^^^^^^
some people can't wait to give the money right back to the people it came from instead of stocking up on FOOD and other essentials (though it's still giving it right back, but at least in a productive way).

The 2020 "on vaccine hopes" headline is the new 2019 "on trade deal optimism" headline. eta: Now replaced by "on reopening optimism."

Bullshit, bullshit everywhere.

 

[Krugminator2]

I can't get them all wrong. The Fed said they were buying infinite bonds which is bullish for stocks.

It makes no sense for the market to keep going up at this point but people are so bearish that it probably doesn't rollover. not sure how much higher it can go though.

I would use Shopify as a leading indicator for when to turn bearish or be bullish. When that gets heavy and starts dropping that will probably be a sign the market is heavy. If it somehow makes new highs probably means the market is headed up. You have a stock trading at higher multiples than Microsoft and Amazon sold at during the height of the dot com bubble. Insiders sold $125 million worth of stock earlier this year at much lower prices yet it is trading at $633 up from an IPO around $30 a few years ago. Shopify is fundamentally hot trash and will be trading 50% lower over the next few years. But when the market wants up, it wants up.

Shopify sold off from $844 down below $700. Back to $750 but price action seems like a change in character. Put/Call ratio starting to get like the beginning of the year. Sentiment starting to become less bearish.

Conditions set for stocks to stall out and perhaps rollover in late June/July

 

[oyarde]

Dow only off the yearly high by 14 1/2 percent which is quite amazing really . Gold looking pretty solid at 1733 , silver could be poised to go over 18 Sunday night if there is not the usual Friday afternoon selloff .