Black Friday?

[devil21]

Not going to lie this was the worst few weeks financially of my life. Lost a staggering amount on casinos, cruise ships and shorting the VIX. I nailed shorting treasuries and caught the market bounces but not even close to the losses on the other three. That said, trying to be as objective as I can be. I think the market has a historic rally. The breadth indexes I look at are either the lowest in history or second lowest.

$NYMO has had four of its lowest 15 readings in history in a two week stretch. Nothing close has happened. $NYAD is the lowest in history. I look at the bullish percent index and financials are at the same low level as when Lehman Brothers fell. The Fed has upped their repos substantially. They are likely to go big on the next cut. I think Trump will sell positive BS on TV tonight and promise the world. The VIX has held very high levels for an extended period of time. The pattern of big down day, big up day, big down day tends to be pretty bullish. This is the fastest 20 percent correction in history and you still have a zillion people who think it will go down another 10%.

There are just so many indicators right now that scream bullish. The dumb money index that Sentimentrader puts out is the most bearish ever and smart money is very bullish. Tons of gap downs clustered tends to indicate excessive fear. The last 7 Fridays have been down which tends to mark bottoms because people are scared of event risk to hold over the weekend. Two days ago was one of the worst days in market history. Those usually mark bottoms or a slight residual bottom before sharp rally.

Gut feel is the World Health Organization calling this a pandemic marks this as a low.

This post will not age well imo.

 

[devil21]

I'm predicting this Friday will indeed be a black one...

Friday the 13th. Knights Templar.

Number 23 is ALL OVER THE PLACE last couple days. Probably pointing to 3/23, the Monday after Jesuit Skull and Bones favorite day of the year 3/22.

 

[Warlord]

Friday the 13th. Knights Templar.

Number 23 is ALL OVER THE PLACE last couple days. Probably pointing to 3/23, the Monday after Jesuit Skull and Bones favorite day of the year 3/22.

That is scaring me....

The markets are basically crashing and Donald is floundering. I can't see him winning an election any itime soon. The corporatist Democrats will be back in town. Comey, Clapper, McCabe and the whole crew. God help us.

 

[Krugminator2]

This post will not age well imo.

It didn't age well 30 minutes after I wrote it. The market was down 8% from where I typed it when you wrote your post.

Still think market has a monster 10% rally but I've been wrong about a lot with this move.

 

[devil21]

That is scaring me....

The markets are basically crashing and Donald is floundering. I can't see him winning an election any itime soon. The corporatist Democrats will be back in town. Comey, Clapper, McCabe and the whole crew. God help us.

Expanding a bit: Friday the 13th was when the Knights Templar were excommunicated, ordered rounded up by the Pope and all their wealth confiscated. A short time later the 23rd and last (official) Grand Master Jacques deMolay was burned at the stake. That's the origin of where the bad luck of number 13 and Friday the 13th comes from. 23 Entire modern banking system is based on the Templar's original trust and credit system. Who did the Templars worship as God? BAPHOMET

Oh and "Ides of March" is Sunday 15th, when Caesar was stabbed in the back by his own Senate. hmm....

from wiki:

The Ides of March was a day in the Roman calendar that corresponds to 15 March. It was marked by several religious observances and was notable for the Romans as a deadline for settling debts.

 

[devil21]

It didn't age well 30 minutes after I wrote it. The market was down 8% from where I typed it when you wrote your post.

Still think market has a monster 10% rally but I've been wrong about a lot with this move.

The only thing that will spur a monster rally is a vaccine discovery announcement. That will come at some point. Whether one decides to take said vaccine is.....

 

[RonZeplin]

Biden is going to win



Longest bull market in history officially ends - Ep 545

Off-Quality American Silver Eagles (Random Date)

$17.60
Out of stock

Sold out of ASE's.

 

[dannno]

[h=2]Biden is going to win[/h]


Longest bull market in history officially ends - Ep 545

Sold out of ASE's.

No, he's not.

 

[RonZeplin]

No, he's not.

So sad, Donnell is a big fat authoritarian Socialist loser like his next door neighbor Bernie.

 

[devil21]

Go look at all of the Dow 4pm closing numbers.

https://www.cnbc.com/

Do I really need to write it?

------------------------------------------------


Rumors floating around the net that commercial lending is about to freeze up entirely, as major corps are raiding their credit lines for cash, presumably to maintain enough capital to service existing debts. Taking more debt to service other debt is always a wise business move and surely will end well.

 

[Warlord]

Well today is Friday the 13th,

Grab the popcorn, London opens in 1 hour

 

[Warlord]

FTSE up 200 points (4%)

No black Friday today

 

[RonZeplin]

Plunge Protection Team, irrational exuberance

FTSE up 200 points (4%)

No black Friday today

Just a temp PPT surge to make the cliff higher, before the markets fall off of it.



"The US is headed for a massive recession, stagflation."

 

[devil21]

1500 pts in 12 minutes! I guess we know where the Fed's $1.5T yesterday went today.

Trump: "We're going to start shutting the country down effective today."

Markets: "BUY EVERYTHING IN SIGHT RIGHT GD NOW!"


So tired of this manipulated bs.

 

[Warlord]

1500 pts in 12 minutes! I guess we know where the Fed's $1.5T yesterday went today.

Trump: "We're going to start shutting the country down effective today."

Markets: "BUY EVERYTHING IN SIGHT RIGHT GD NOW!"


So tired of this manipulated bs.

Yeah it's tiresome.

They have really pumped the market. So instead of Black Friday it's Green Friday.

 

[devil21]

Yeah it's tiresome.

They have really pumped the market. So instead of Black Friday it's Green Friday.

It'll head back off the cliff next week but seriously, they're not even trying to hide how rigged this stuff is. They even timed the press conference to exactly give the markets time to be run up by the PPT and end right at the close so the selling pressure can't kick back in. Scripted.

(more available testing is a double-edged sword since it could also reveal much wider spread infection, which is back to market negative. any word on where all of that DNA from the mouth swabs will end up?)

 

[RonZeplin]

2020 Silver Eagle Sellout As Silver Plunges Below $15!

 

[Krugminator2]

1500 pts in 12 minutes! I guess we know where the Fed's $1.5T yesterday went today.

Trump: "We're going to start shutting the country down effective today."

Markets: "BUY EVERYTHING IN SIGHT RIGHT GD NOW!"


So tired of this manipulated bs.

This is how markets behaved before there even was a Federal Reserve. Markets just don't go to zero because you wish it that way. At some point there are no more brain damaged people left to panic sell. And you always have people stepping in to buy at a discount to participate in the million percent a century upward drift that holding risky equities affords you.


The secret to making money was laid out in 1887. Don't remember a Fed in 1887. not always easy to do and occasionally you take big losses but works over time. http://www.dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cane.htm

“But few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to command success until they reach that period of life in which they have one foot in the grave. When this time comes, these old veterans of the Street usually spend long intervals of repose at their comfortable homes, and in times of panic, which recur sometimes oftener than once a year, these old fellows will be seen in Wall Street, hobbling down on their canes to their brokers’ offices.

“Then they always buy good stocks to the extent of their bank balances, which they have been permitted to accumulate for just such an emergency. The panic usually rages until enough of these cash purchases of stock is made to afford a big “rake in.” When the panic has spent its force, these old fellows, who have been resting judiciously on their oars in expectation of the inevitable event, which usually returns with the regularity of the seasons, quickly realize, deposit their profits with their bankers, or the overplus thereof, after purchasing more real estate that is on the up grade, for permanent investment, and retire for another season to the quietude of their splendid homes and the bosoms of their happy families.”

 

[devil21]

This is how markets behaved before there even was a Federal Reserve. Markets just don't go to zero because you wish it that way. At some point there are no more brain damaged people left to panic sell. And you always have people stepping in to buy at a discount to participate in the million percent a century upward drift that holding risky equities affords you.

Right. Nothing to do with trillion dollar injections and PPTs and timed press conferences. Everyone and their brother decided to buy all stock indexes in unison 15 minutes before the close on a Friday during a national emergency. Sounds legit.

eta: I could see people piling into Walmart/Walgreens/Pharma at the last minute based on the speech contents but the indexes started falling fast when Trump said the words "National Emergency", Dow it 550 then *bam* moonshot, 1400+ pts in minutes on nothing positive whatsoever. Some pharma and drug stores stocks do not make for a 1500pt ramp.

 

[Krugminator2]

Right. Nothing to do with trillion dollar injections and PPTs and timed press conferences. Everyone and their brother decided to buy all stock indexes in unison 15 minutes before the close on a Friday during a national emergency. Sounds legit.

Correct. People time trades off of catalysts. The market was a coiled spring loaded to max to go up. You had a super stretched VIX and highest put/call ratio. The market was going to have a rip your face off rally no matter what. It was just a matter of when. People waited around for Trump's speech before the move was going to happen. He was so terrible sounding that the market tried to sell but it wanted up. It's just how things work. Most moves happen premarket and end of day. This happened end of day.