Black Friday?

[Warlord]

Unless it turns out we can't borrow and print our way to prosperity. Then we'll have a deflationary depression and 85% of that portfolio will evaporate.

There will be a day of reckoning.

I can't tell you when it'll be. Neither can Schiff or whoever biut it is surely coming.

Stocks can go to ZERO! !

That's why im holding gold for now and not interested int the market despite historical gains.

The only thing I like to invest in is dividend paying emerging markets but its too risky right now.,..

 

[Krugminator2]

Unless it turns out we can't borrow and print our way to prosperity. Then we'll have a deflationary depression and 85% of that portfolio will evaporate.

If you had a deflationary depression the portfolio would do better than just about any portfolio you could construct. 55% of the porfolio is treasuries which would sky rocket in value during a deflationary depression.

You essentially are hedged from inflation with the commodities, deflation with the bonds, and you participate in the million percent a century upward drift in stocks.

 

[Prince Arthur]

European Stock Markets Moving in Unison - 28th Feb 2020

European Stock Markets Moving in Unison - 28th Feb 2020

Uncannily similar trends for the main European Stock Indices...

Who's pulling the strings? 


FTSE100 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr
EuroStoxx 50 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr
DAX 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr
CAC 40 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr
AEX 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr
IBEX35 280220 by Prince Arthur, on Flickr



Who's pulling the strings? 

 

[devil21]

If you had a deflationary depression the portfolio would do better than just about any portfolio you could construct. 55% of the porfolio is treasuries which would sky rocket in value during a deflationary depression.

You essentially are hedged from inflation with the commodities, deflation with the bonds, and you participate in the million percent a century upward drift in stocks.

I don't think even Treasuries would withstand a deflationary depression for very long, since the intrinsic value of a Treasury issue is simply the masses' ability and willingness to continue to be economic engines of more debt and taxation. Without jobs, there's no economic activity of the average body to maintain any "faith and credit" behind the Treasury instrument. I could go off into a lecture of how Treasury instruments are created (birth certificates, ability to tax wages to generate interest payments, etc) but suffice it to say that no economic activity means no intrinsic value to a Treasury instrument.

 

[Madison320]

If you had a deflationary depression the portfolio would do better than just about any portfolio you could construct. 55% of the porfolio is treasuries which would sky rocket in value during a deflationary depression.

You essentially are hedged from inflation with the commodities, deflation with the bonds, and you participate in the million percent a century upward drift in stocks.

Oops! I meant INflationary depression. Treasuries would become worthless and stocks would lose a ton of value if measured against something stable in value.

 

[Madison320]

There will be a day of reckoning.

I can't tell you when it'll be. Neither can Schiff or whoever biut it is surely coming.

Stocks can go to ZERO! !

That's why im holding gold for now and not interested int the market despite historical gains.

The only thing I like to invest in is dividend paying emerging markets but its too risky right now.,..

Typo. I meant inflationary depression not deflationary!

It looks like the markets are expecting a .5% rate cut. Rate's will likely be back to 0% by the end of the year. Let's see if that's enough to stabilize things in the short run.

Like I've said a million times, until we get unbearable price inflation the Fed and the Govt are going to keep borrowing and printing.

And I'm guessing it'll show up first in gas prices.

 

[Warlord]

Typo. I meant inflationary depression not deflationary!

Yeah it's basic economics. The increase in money supply eventually shows up in consumer prices. They have got away with it for so long but it's going to a scale never seen before i.e 1.3 trillion dollar deficit.

 

[oyarde]

Yeah it's basic economics. The increase in money supply eventually shows up in consumer prices. They have got away with it for so long but it's going to a scale never seen before i.e 1.3 trillion dollar deficit.

I really cannot say I understand why it has not shown up more . Since it has not it makes it seem they can get by with more , longer .

 

[devil21]

I really cannot say I understand why it has not shown up more . Since it has not it makes it seem they can get by with more , longer .

Price inflation also requires money velocity, not just a general increase in money supply. If the money created doesn't make it to the general economy to be spent, and instead stays mostly on Wall St or in the accounts of DC crony contractors, the velocity component is missing. What price inflation has surfaced has either been hidden by shrink-flation of goods (the "less is more" marketing narrative is all around us....ie Reese's Peanut Butter Cups that're filled with artificially flavored fake peanut butter filled Reese's Pieces instead of real peanut butter but still costs $2), tech advances (ie LED bulbs hide double and triple jumps in power prices) or has shown up in other ways like rents, insurance and automobile prices.

 

[enhanced_deficit]

 

[Madison320]

Price inflation also requires money velocity, not just a general increase in money supply. If the money created doesn't make it to the general economy to be spent, and instead stays mostly on Wall St or in the accounts of DC crony contractors, the velocity component is missing. What price inflation has surfaced has either been hidden by shrink-flation of goods (the "less is more" marketing narrative is all around us....ie Reese's Peanut Butter Cups that're filled with artificially flavored fake peanut butter filled Reese's Pieces instead of real peanut butter but still costs $2), tech advances (ie LED bulbs hide double and triple jumps in power prices) or has shown up in other ways like rents, insurance and automobile prices.

I agree. I think the ultra low velocity is giving us a false sense of security.

All things being equal if you double the supply of cows or shells or paper or gold or whatever is being used as money, prices will eventually double.

We've more than quadrupled the money supply over the last 10 years and now we're printing again. So basic logic tells us that prices will eventually have to catch up.

 

[oyarde]

Coronavirs death rate is estimated at 3.4 percent . Higher than inflation or growth.

 

[devil21]

Kudlow showed up on CNBC while at the same time the PPT was activated. It's so obvious that whenever he runs out in front of the cameras for a quick presser, the PPT starts buying chunks of index futures to halt the plunge.

Happened again today. Dow -800 around 9:45 and looking shaky. Kudlow pops up on CNBC, says a bunch of bullshit, Dow starts reversing, -380 an hour later.

Rinse and repeat.

 

[Warlord]

Happened again today. Dow -800 around 9:45 and looking shaky. Kudlow pops up on CNBC, says a bunch of bull$#@!, Dow starts reversing, -380 an hour later.

Rinse and repeat.

And gold selling off as well.

Oil crashing : down 7%

 

[devil21]

And gold selling off as well.

Oil crashing : down 7%

That's a huge move for oil. Gold has recovered. The oil moves strike me as the real start of the decoupling of the petrodollar standard. Russia vetoing a production cut shows cracks in OPEC and Russia (a non-OPEC member even) taking an outsized influence on OPEC's decisions.

 

[Warlord]

That's a huge move for oil. Gold has recovered. The oil moves strike me as the real start of the decoupling of the petrodollar standard. Russia vetoing a production cut shows cracks in OPEC and Russia (a non-OPEC member even) taking an outsized influence on OPEC's decisions.

Oil futures finished down 10% , now $41.

That should screw the Saudi's and the Sheikdom's who got drunk on $80-100 oil.

Also could harm frackers who will find it hard to extract based on that price.

Interesting times.

 

[Madison320]

Oil futures finished down 10% , now $41.

That should screw the Saudi's and the Sheikdom's who got drunk on $80-100 oil.

Also could harm frackers who will find it hard to extract based on that price.

Interesting times.

I've got a lot of oil related stuff that I'm getting killed on, but in the long run I think I'll be fine. Personally I think it should be closer to $200 a barrel based on all the inflation and the fact that it's a finite supply.

 

[Danke]

This maybe the first time bears ever get something right.

Of course, I am leveraged long. You have had one crash in 1987. Every other time the market immediately recovers. Never pays to be a bear on stocks as a group. Gut feeling is market rallies 5% from here over the next week.

If I am wrong and take a mega loss, I will say good job to bears. There certainly are tons of fundamental reasons for stocks to go down. Goldman Sachs just said zero growth in earnings this year because of the virus vs the expected 7%. Stocks were already overvalued to start. So tons of reasons.

But VIX hit 49 today. And the oscillators are at not seen before oversold levels. Not even 2008 in the financial crisis. To me the is all in long. If you lose your ass, part of the game. But I don't think you will see an opportunity in your lifetime this good as today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dFB7MSOswI&feature=emb_title

 

[devil21]

Happened again today. Dow -800 around 9:45 and looking shaky. Kudlow pops up on CNBC, says a bunch of bullshit, Dow starts reversing, -380 an hour later.

Rinse and repeat.

Happened again today. After dumping entire 1000 points gain at the open and eventually going negative, Trump popped up on camera and immediately the Dow rebounded back into the positive, tried repeatedly to go negative again but was NOT allowed to by a "hidden hand" and stayed up the rest of the day. The PPT/ESF completely controls this entire "market".

 

[PRB]

you ain't seen nothin yet.