Black Friday?

[Krugminator2]

This maybe the first time bears ever get something right.

Of course, I am leveraged long. You have had one crash in 1987. Every other time the market immediately recovers. Never pays to be a bear on stocks as a group. Gut feeling is market rallies 5% from here over the next week.

If I am wrong and take a mega loss, I will say good job to bears. There certainly are tons of fundamental reasons for stocks to go down. Goldman Sachs just said zero growth in earnings this year because of the virus vs the expected 7%. Stocks were already overvalued to start. So tons of reasons.

But VIX hit 49 today. And the oscillators are at not seen before oversold levels. Not even 2008 in the financial crisis. To me the is all in long. If you lose your ass, part of the game. But I don't think you will see an opportunity in your lifetime this good as today.

 

[devil21]

Kudlow showed up on CNBC while at the same time the PPT was activated. It's so obvious that whenever he runs out in front of the cameras for a quick presser, the PPT starts buying chunks of index futures to halt the plunge.

 

[Krugminator2]

Kudlow showed up on CNBC while at the same time the PPT was activated. It's so obvious that whenever he runs out in front of the cameras for a quick presser, the PPT starts buying chunks of index futures to halt the plunge.

EVERY asset behaves this way. Not every stock has a plunge protection team. You can test selloffs and see that buying extreme selling works very well in individual stocks as well as markets. At some point markets get to a level where selling stops. And at the same prices drop to a level where they become attractive to investors.

There was $22 billion in equity outflows this week. That dollar amount has typically market bottoms.

Also this next Monday is the first day of the month. It is the most bullish day every month. Buying the end of the month after down days and holding into the new month very bullish. https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-SPY-...+day+of+the+month+reddy&qid=1582911833&sr=8-1 That said maybe this is 1987. A terrible Trump response could break the rubber band.

 

[devil21]

EVERY asset behaves this way. Not every stock has a plunge protection team. You can test selloffs and see that buying extreme selling works very well in individual stocks as well as markets. At some point markets get to a level where selling stops. And at the same prices drop to a level where they become attractive to investors.

Interesting that it always happens exactly when Kudlow shows up on the tv.

It could bounce a bit next week, especially after the apparent "buy" signal in the last 15 minutes and the PPT running hot today. It won't last though.

 

[oyarde]

This maybe the first time bears ever get something right.

Of course, I am leveraged long. You have had one crash in 1987. Every other time the market immediately recovers. Never pays to be a bear on stocks as a group. Gut feeling is market rallies 5% from here over the next week.

If I am wrong and take a mega loss, I will say good job to bears. There certainly are tons of fundamental reasons for stocks to go down. Goldman Sachs just said zero growth in earnings this year because of the virus vs the expected 7%. Stocks were already overvalued to start. So tons of reasons.

But VIX hit 49 today. And the oscillators are at not seen before oversold levels. Not even 2008 in the financial crisis. To me the is all in long. If you lose your ass, part of the game. But I don't think you will see an opportunity in your lifetime this good as today.

Seems reasonable , five percent pickup next week would put it around 10 percent drop which is justified through loss productivity- profits from shutdowns .

 

[Warlord]

I'm all out of stocks. I posted yesterday that the bearish conditions will take out even the most sensible trades like buying miners. GDX down 8%!

Just buy physical gold and enjoy the sh1t show.

 

[Warlord]

By the way: year to date Gold is up 25%, Silver up 16% These dips are good opportunities to get into the market.

 

[Warlord]

OK so a black Friday didn't quite happen but the stock market has had its worst week since 2008.

Where it goes from here is anyone's guess. I think we will still see plenty of volatility next week.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

I'm all out of stocks. I posted yesterday that the bearish conditions will take out even the most sensible trades like buying miners. GDX down 8%!

Just buy physical gold and enjoy the sh1t show.

Mining is volatile, no doubt about that. It goes both lower and higher than the underlying metals. But over the long term, miners do better. Compare 1 year or longer, and GDX performs better than gold.

So basically if GDX takes a big dive, it becomes a much better buy than gold itself when GDX bottoms.

Holding physical coins or bullion is another matter. Good to have some of that for SHTF scenarios.

 

[devil21]

+643pts in final 15 minutes. Move along, nothing to see here.

Just like how the bogus "trade deal" news was used to pump the bubble, generally bogus "coronavirus" news will probably be used to deflate it. 3-6 is the 11th anniversary of S&P 666... (/numbers)

I expect a couple of modest up days to start next week and then back off a cliff again when the next batch of virus news hits. This cycle will roughly repeat for most of the year. My .02.

 

[oyarde]

+643pts in final 15 minutes. Move along, nothing to see here.

Just like how the bogus "trade deal" news was used to pump the bubble, generally bogus "coronavirus" news will probably be used to deflate it. 3-6 is the 11th anniversary of S&P 666... (/numbers)

I expect a couple of modest up days to start next week and then back off a cliff again when the next batch of virus news hits. This cycle will roughly repeat for most of the year. My .02.

I am going to guess by this time next week the Dow is back within 8.75 percent of last weeks high .

 

[Warlord]

Mining is volatile, no doubt about that. It goes both lower and higher than the underlying metals. But over the long term, miners do better. Compare 1 year or longer, and GDX performs better than gold.

So basically if GDX takes a big dive, it becomes a much better buy than gold itself when GDX bottoms.

Holding physical coins or bullion is another matter. Good to have some of that for SHTF scenarios.

Timing is everything. Schiff is still bullish on the miners from what I've seen on twitter but there's lots of 'non believers' in the comments who are pushing bitcoin as an alternative. Schiff's attitude is they're giving those stocks away and the sellers are stupid. He takes the long term view and suggests when people wake up the miners will climb especially junior miner funds. If you look at charts over 10 years its not unheard of that they double or triple in price.

However i'm parked right now in an interest bearing account and too nervous to enter the market. I am buying bullion in 0.5 ounce / 0.25 ounce and 0.1 ounce coins (Krugerrand) so if I need to i can liquidate relatively quickly, easily (lots of dealers) and on an incremental basis. It's a great strategy in these times of volatility because there is little risk.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Timing is everything. Schiff is still bullish on the miners from what I've seen on twitter but there's lots of 'non believers' in the comments who are pushing bitcoin as an alternative. Schiff's attitude is they're giving those stocks away and the sellers are stupid. He takes the long term view and suggests when people wake up the miners will climb especially junior miner funds. If you look at charts over 10 years its not unheard of that they double or triple in price.

However i'm parked right now in an interest bearing account and too nervous to enter the market. I am buying bullion in 0.5 ounce / 0.25 ounce and 0.1 ounce coins (Krugerrand) so if I need to i can liquidate relatively quickly, easily (lots of dealers) and on an incremental basis. It's a great strategy in these times of volatility because there is little risk.

I’d stick to the major miners in the GDX, rather than a junior miner index. If there is a specific junior miner that looks good, I’d get that specific stock. But yes, miners will be a great buy when they bottom.

Nothing wrong with a safe cash haven during a market sell off. I do have concerns with money markets, as they can bust the buck, with no insurance at all on losses.

 

[Madison320]

Timing is everything. Schiff is still bullish on the miners from what I've seen on twitter but there's lots of 'non believers' in the comments who are pushing bitcoin as an alternative. Schiff's attitude is they're giving those stocks away and the sellers are stupid. He takes the long term view and suggests when people wake up the miners will climb especially junior miner funds. If you look at charts over 10 years its not unheard of that they double or triple in price.

However i'm parked right now in an interest bearing account and too nervous to enter the market. I am buying bullion in 0.5 ounce / 0.25 ounce and 0.1 ounce coins (Krugerrand) so if I need to i can liquidate relatively quickly, easily (lots of dealers) and on an incremental basis. It's a great strategy in these times of volatility because there is little risk.

I look at Schiff's/Paul's view as the ultimate in diversification. If they are wrong and debt doesn't matter then I won't make quite as much in the market, but I'll still be getting social security and medicare. But if they're right that we can't borrow and print our way to prosperity then the only thing I need to worry about is getting my fortune stolen by the next Bernie Sanders. So basically if the US crashes or prospers I do well. Most people are all in on the US. If the US fails they fail.

 

[Warlord]

Nouriel Roubini, a New York University business professor and market prognosticator who foretold the housing bubble burst, told Yahoo Finance on Friday to expect "severe" consequences as the coronavirus continues to rattle markets. How severe? He told Der Spiegel it could be worse than investors even believe at this point, predicting "global equities to tank by 30 to 40 percent this year."

https://theweek.com/speedreads/899110/stock-markets-are-headed-40-percent-plunge-says-economist-who-predicted-financial-crisis

He also says Trump is finished...

[MENTION=27246]oyarde[/MENTION]

 

[oyarde]

https://theweek.com/speedreads/899110/stock-markets-are-headed-40-percent-plunge-says-economist-who-predicted-financial-crisis

He also says Trump is finished...

[MENTION=27246]oyarde[/MENTION]

30 to 40 percent is what I would expect after a yr of Bernie and Pelosi so needless to say that is huge . I think by next thurs we could be back within 8.75 percent of the high so that would mean a 21 to 31 percent drop from there at least. We shall see but I would expect bargain hunters to start buying before it got that far. What do you think ?

 

[Warlord]

30 to 40 percent is what I would expect after a yr of Bernie and Pelosi so needless to say that is huge . I think by next thurs we could be back within 8.75 percent of the high so that would mean a 21 to 31 percent drop from there at least. We shall see but I would expect bargain hunters to start buying before it got that far. What do you think ?

I have no idea to be honest. I am staying out for the market. I expect the Fed to do everything they can to support the market in an election year.. However we are in a bear market territory so its going to be up and down; big swings etc. Gold is still in a bull market despite the sell off if you look at the charts. Tonight I'm ordering more gold online delivered Tuesday!

I'll just put it away and watch the markets with interest

 

[devil21]

I am going to guess by this time next week the Dow is back within 8.75 percent of last weeks high .

Also, if Bernie kicks ass on Tuesday, which is likely, the rest of the week will -not- be pretty for markets. Bernie winning Super Tuesday and more virus news? I noticed even Fed officials are not indicating any sorts of overt (emergency rate cuts, eg) interventions either. Ex-Dallas Fed Fisher said it was time to take away the punch bowl. Current Dallas Fed governor Kaplan (iirc) indicated similarly.

 

[Krugminator2]

I look at Schiff's/Paul's view as the ultimate in diversification. If they are wrong and debt doesn't matter then I won't make quite as much in the market, but I'll still be getting social security and medicare. But if they're right that we can't borrow and print our way to prosperity then the only thing I need to worry about is getting my fortune stolen by the next Bernie Sanders. So basically if the US crashes or prospers I do well. Most people are all in on the US. If the US fails they fail.

Here is a portfolio that accomplishes everything you just said. Does well in high inflation, deflation, and underperforms a bit with positive returns in a booming economy.

[TABLE="class: w3-table table-padding-small w3-small font-family-arial table-valign-middle, width: 524"]
[TR]
[TH="class: w3-center, align: left"]Weight[/TH]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="class: w3-center, align: left"]Ticker[/TH]
[TH="class: w3-left-align, align: left"]ETF Name[/TH]
[TH="class: w3-left-align, align: left"]Investment Themes[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: w3-border-bottom"]
[TD="class: w3-center"]30.00 %[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F44336"][/TD]
[TD="class: w3-center"]VTI[/TD]
[TD]Vanguard Total Stock Market[/TD]
[TD]Equity, U.S., Large Cap[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: w3-border-bottom"]
[TD="class: w3-center"]40.00 %[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #3F51B5"][/TD]
[TD="class: w3-center"]TLT[/TD]
[TD]iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond[/TD]
[TD]Bond, U.S., Long-Term[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: w3-border-bottom"]
[TD="class: w3-center"]15.00 %[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #3F51B5"][/TD]
[TD="class: w3-center"]IEI[/TD]
[TD]iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond[/TD]
[TD]Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: w3-border-bottom"]
[TD="class: w3-center"]7.50 %[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEB3B"][/TD]
[TD="class: w3-center"]GLD[/TD]
[TD]SPDR Gold Trust[/TD]
[TD]Commodity, Gold[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: w3-border-bottom"]
[TD="class: w3-center"]7.50 %[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEB3B"][/TD]
[TD="class: w3-center"]GSG[/TD]
[TD]iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust[/TD]
[TD]Commodity, Broad Diversified
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



This looks super conservative but has returned almost as much stock market historically with much less volatility over the very long run.

http://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/ray-dalio-all-weather/

 

[Madison320]

Here is a portfolio that accomplishes everything you just said. Does well in high inflation, deflation, and underperforms a bit with positive returns in a booming economy.

[TABLE="class: w3-table table-padding-small w3-small font-family-arial table-valign-middle, width: 524"]
[TR]
[TH="class: w3-center, align: left"]Weight[/TH]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="class: w3-center, align: left"]Ticker[/TH]
[TH="class: w3-left-align, align: left"]ETF Name[/TH]
[TH="class: w3-left-align, align: left"]Investment Themes[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: w3-border-bottom"]
[TD="class: w3-center"]30.00 %[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F44336"][/TD]
[TD="class: w3-center"]VTI[/TD]
[TD]Vanguard Total Stock Market[/TD]
[TD]Equity, U.S., Large Cap[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: w3-border-bottom"]
[TD="class: w3-center"]40.00 %[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #3F51B5"][/TD]
[TD="class: w3-center"]TLT[/TD]
[TD]iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond[/TD]
[TD]Bond, U.S., Long-Term[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: w3-border-bottom"]
[TD="class: w3-center"]15.00 %[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #3F51B5"][/TD]
[TD="class: w3-center"]IEI[/TD]
[TD]iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond[/TD]
[TD]Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: w3-border-bottom"]
[TD="class: w3-center"]7.50 %[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEB3B"][/TD]
[TD="class: w3-center"]GLD[/TD]
[TD]SPDR Gold Trust[/TD]
[TD]Commodity, Gold[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: w3-border-bottom"]
[TD="class: w3-center"]7.50 %[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFEB3B"][/TD]
[TD="class: w3-center"]GSG[/TD]
[TD]iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust[/TD]
[TD]Commodity, Broad Diversified
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



This looks super conservative but has returned almost as much stock market historically with much less volatility over the very long run.

http://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/ray-dalio-all-weather/

Unless it turns out we can't borrow and print our way to prosperity. Then we'll have a INflationary depression and 85% of that portfolio will evaporate.