Based on Current Situation=> Ted Cruz Will Be Knocked Out of Race By April 26th

[luctor-et-emergo]

Cruz wins Wisconsin and get 30 delegates and Trump gets 12. Cruz goes up 18 delegates and it doesn't matter at all.

Trump wins New York by 25 points, and Cruz will be mathematically eliminated by April 19th.

This article has a very conservative date.

That's not too interesting really. What's more interesting is to see if anyone and then I mean Trump will get 50%+1 delegates.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

That's not too interesting really. What's more interesting is to see if anyone and then I mean Trump will get 50%+1 delegates.

I think it is very interesting. I hate lying. Cruz has repeatedly said he can get 1237 - knowing he was trying to deceive people. After the 19th probably, there won't even be a 85% chance that is untrue. It will certainly be untrue.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

I think it is very intersting. I hate lying. Cruz has repeatedly said he can get 1227 - knowing he was trying to deceive people. After the 19th probably, there won't even be a 85% chance that is untrue. It will certainly be untrue.

He might be able to, theoretically, on a second ballot. In case Trump doesn't make 50%+1. However, I'd be the first to say Cruz won't attain 50%+1 then either and some other candidate would pop up. Kasich or someone who's not yet in the race. In that case it would be likely to take at least three rounds of voting.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

He might be able to, theoretically, on a second ballot. In case Trump doesn't make 50%+1. However, I'd be the first to say Cruz won't attain 50%+1 then either and some other candidate would pop up. Kasich or someone who's not yet in the race. In that case it would be likely to take at least three rounds of voting.

Trump gets out 1000 dollar bills - rarely seen in circulation, and bribes everyone. Wins on 2nd ballot. case closed.

 

[Jan2017]

. . . By the end of May, Trump will also be mathematically eliminated from getting a majority going in.

June 7 decides about 300 delegates all bound . . . Trump is 500 away right now from a first ballot win,and then will be about 400 to go after NY.

Trump leads 37 - 30 - 12 % Kasich in recent California statewide polling

 

[Jan2017]

(Cruz) He might be able to, theoretically, on a second ballot. . . .

If Cruz got to 1227 delegates he would have more than Trump going in, he's like 750 away from that number now with 800 delegates to decide.

Cruz has no chance at a second ballot at all -
even with some 750 delegates first ballot bound to Cruz, delegates will run from him to an eligible candidate.

It may take about five ballots to come up with a consensus GOP nominee . . . it won't be either Trump or Cruz certainly.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

June 7 decides about 300 delegates all bound . . . Trump is 500 away right now from a first ballot win,and then will be about 400 to go after NY.

Trump leads 37 - 30 - 12 % Kasich in recent California statewide polling

I like my thousand dollar bills solution to push the ridiculousness of this.

It's no more unethical to pass out thousand dollar bills then it is to try to steal a nomination. And since it's a "private organization", it's not likely a bribe either - by the same reasoning that others have made to elect someone other then those voters choose. Or perhaps it isn't made in those terms and not even a bribe.

An extreme illustration - but the point being this is a multi-billionaire. The gop is not going to be able to push him around like poor Ron Paul. Dirty tricks aren't likely to work. Please note - I'm not supporting bribery, schmoozing, or wining and dining delegates in any of the numerous Trump resorts. Although, I think we talked about doing that for Ron Paul!

 

[CPUd]

I like my thousand dollar bills solution to push the ridiculousness of this.

It's no more unethical to pass out thousand dollar bills then it is to try to steal a nomination. And since it's a "private organization", it's not likely a bribe either - by the same reasoning that others have made to elect someone other then those voters choose. Or perhaps it isn't made in those terms and not even a bribe.

An extreme illustration - but the point being this is a multi-billionaire. The gop is not going to be able to push him around like poor Ron Paul. Dirty tricks aren't likely to work. Please note - I'm not supporting bribery, schmoozing, or wining and dining delegates in any of the numerous Trump resorts. Although, I think we talked about doing that for Ron Paul!

They won't need to use dirty tricks, they're taking delegates fair and square. Trump just waited too long to start learning about the delegate game. If he doesn't have a majority on June 7, he will probably not even show up.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

They won't need to use dirty tricks, they're taking delegates fair and square. Trump just waited too long to start learning about the delegate game. If he doesn't have a majority on June 7, he will probably not even show up.

Yes, but Trump won't be using any tricks either. It's perfectly legally to spread around as much money as he wants.

aka this thought is doomed to failure.

 

[CPUd]

There go about half the AZ delegate seats:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/cruz-snaring-trumps-arizona-delegates/article/2587556

This is exactly like Ron 2012, but the problem then was Mitt, they didn't hate him enough to help us organize against him. The grassroots is much more successful this time around organizing against Trump.

 

[Jan2017]

There go about half the AZ delegate seats:
. . .

No surprise . . . as after the first ballot everyone becomes unbound.
The other half of Arizona delegates goes to Rubio in the contested convention (?)
while Utah and Iowa delegates will run from Cruz on the second ballot, so Cruz could expect his second ballot total to head DOWN

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Yes, but Trump won't be using any tricks either. It's perfectly legally to spread around as much money as he wants.

aka this thought is doomed to failure.

He's not the only one that can 'influence' delegates.

 

[CPUd]

No surprise . . . as after the first ballot everyone becomes unbound.
The other half of Arizona delegates goes to Rubio in the contested convention (?)
while Utah and Iowa delegates will run from Cruz on the second ballot, so Cruz could expect his second ballot total to head DOWN

Yeah, if Rubio gets back in the mix, I think they will go for him over Cruz.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

He's not the only one that can 'influence' delegates.

But Trump won't be do anything wrong - as he will have actually won, as we are talking about trying to subvert delegates from Trump.

It's not influence when you're just getting someone to do the right thing and what they agreed on.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

But Trump won't be do anything wrong

I'm not suggesting that he will be.

- as he will have actually won,

He will have actually won when he has won the nomination, not any time before that.

as we are talking about trying to subvert delegates from Trump.

sub·vert (səb-vûrt′)
tr.v. sub·vert·ed, sub·vert·ing, sub·verts
1. To overthrow or destroy
2. To undermine, overturn, or render ineffective
3. To cause to serve a purpose other than the original or established one
4. To undermine, mislead, or betray

Which is it and, is it illegal ?

It's not influence when you're just getting someone to do the right thing and what they agreed on.

The 'right' thing can mean a lot of different things to different people in different circumstances. Delegates have not agreed to do anything when and if they are unbound.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

The 'right' thing can mean a lot of different things to different people in different circumstances. Delegates have not agreed to do anything when and if they are unbound.

I think the GOP establishment will discover the right thing aligns with what the will of the gop voter is this time - all talk about changing rules and secretly changing delegate loyalties aside.

You are not going to do that with a popular candidate who has won the majority of delegates, the needed number of states, and is a multi-billionaire to boot.

Not even the democrats expect that, as they started to campaign against trump awhile ago. Only on ron paul forums do du members, foreign nationalists, and secret commie lovers of sanders still profess it's possible - and only because they think deceiving others is good for what they want - thanks for not telling us what you really think!

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

I think the GOP establishment will discover the right thing aligns with what the will of the gop voter is this time - all talk about changing rules and secretly changing delegate loyalties aside.

You are not going to do that with a popular candidate who has won the majority of delegates, the needed number of states, and is a multi-billionaire to boot.

Not even the democrats expect that, as they started to campaign against trump awhile ago.

I'd agree with that if Trump didn't have major problems with his favorability rating or un-favorability rating I should say.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

I'd agree with that if Trump didn't have major problems with his favorability rating or un-favorability rating I should say.

The only favorability rating that matters is how many votes he gets. Trump is winning by a large amount - and hence the most favored candidate.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

The only favorability rating that matters is how many votes he gets. Trump is winning by a large amount - and hence the most favored candidate.

Romney won by a larger percentage last time. Still lost the general.

 

[Jan2017]

Yeah, if Rubio gets back in the mix, I think they will go for him over Cruz.

Rubio could still finish third in the first ballot - numbers have him from 166 - 171 delegates bound
Kasich home turf . . . and are there any Kentucky delegates that will vote for Rand on a second ballot ?