At Real Clear Politics, Harris is now ahead in every polling average

Anti Federalist

Anti Federalist

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Harris up 1.8 against Trump overall.

Harris up 2.1 in a 5 way race against Trump, West, Stein and Oliver.

Harris up 0.5 in an average of all five "battleground states".

Harris up 7.3 in "Favorability Rating" against Trump.

Harris up 0.5 in "Betting Odds".

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
 
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Trump is still winning in their Electoral College numbers which is all that really matters.
 
Snowball said:
and your point is?
Click to expand...

Well, I'm making a number of points:

1 - This is the US political forum, and nothing could be more "political" than polling numbers in the run up to a hotly contested election.

2 - Freedom is not popular. If any of these polls, which are the averages of hundreds of other polls, are accurate, clearly one third of the US population wants more taxes, more regulation, more war, more infringements on the Bill of Rights, wants more queeerness, wants more abortion, wants more invasion.

3 - Those of us that are gung ho for Trump, and those of us that are regarding him as the lesser of two evils to those that are mildly supportive of him, if any of us do not want a Harris regime, then we better take nothing for granted...this is far from a slam dunk. I am trying to prevent an "echo chamber" effect.

4 - To document the polling numbers on a regular basis, in the very likely event of shenanigans taking place after The 5th of November.
 
Anti Federalist said:
3 - Those of us that are gung ho for Trump, and those of us that are regarding him as the lesser of two evils to those that are mildly supportive of him, if any of us do not want a Harris regime, then we better take nothing for granted...this is far from a slam dunk. I am trying to prevent an "echo chamber" effect.
Click to expand...

:up::up:

They could elect a ham & cheese sammich if we let them get away with it.

4 - To document the polling numbers on a regular basis, in the very likely event of shenanigans taking place after The 5th of November.
Click to expand...

WHAT ARE YOU A CONSPIRACY THEORIST?!??

image.png
 
Anti Federalist said:
At Real Clear Politics, Harris is now ahead in every polling average
Harris up 1.8 against Trump overall.
Click to expand...

James Carville was on Bill Maher's show last week saying that unless the Democratic candidate was up by at least 3 points in national-level polling then she was actually behind (due to the weighting of large population states in the national polling). Still though, you've posted other polls recently that showed Kamster polling better than Trumpsky in most all of the tossup states (which is where the battles leading to victory lie).
 
Voluntarist said:
James Carville was on Bill Maher's show last week saying that unless the Democratic candidate was up by at least 3 points in national-level polling then she was actually behind (due to the weighting of large population states in the national polling). Still though, you've posted other polls recently that showed Kamster polling better than Trumpsky in most all of the tossup states (which is where the battles leading to victory lie).
Click to expand...

Based on those numbers, as it stands right now, Harris wins by 2.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
 
I don't trust polls because they drive outcomes with stupid people.

And we have more than enough stupid people to elect Klamydia.

Democracy, with a twist and a push.
 
Anti Federalist said:
Well, I'm making a number of points:

1 - This is the US political forum, and nothing could be more "political" than polling numbers in the run up to a hotly contested election.

2 - Freedom is not popular. If any of these polls, which are the averages of hundreds of other polls, are accurate, clearly one third of the US population wants more taxes, more regulation, more war, more infringements on the Bill of Rights, wants more queeerness, wants more abortion, wants more invasion.

3 - Those of us that are gung ho for Trump, and those of us that are regarding him as the lesser of two evils to those that are mildly supportive of him, if any of us do not want a Harris regime, then we better take nothing for granted...this is far from a slam dunk. I am trying to prevent an "echo chamber" effect.

4 - To document the polling numbers on a regular basis, in the very likely event of shenanigans taking place after The 5th of November.
Click to expand...

Yes, that would be correct. Somewhere between low 40s-low 50s percent of Americans do have no problem with or indeed want those things.
Some of them are more popular than others, however, these numbers are on par with the percent of Americans who want Donald Trump in the office again. It is by no means odd if Harris wins.

We're about half a liberal, socialist, feminist, secular country now, many of whom are dependent on the states and feds for life's necessities, and many of them are lured in by the prospects of more free stuff, like tuition and apartments.
 
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ClaytonB said:
Anti Federalist said:
CaptUSA said:
As long as it’s plausible, the steal is inevitable.
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Bingo.
Click to expand...
Yep.
Click to expand...

Here's the thing... (and maybe some good news)

The corporate press and the intel machine have made their bed. Now, they'll have to lay in it. There's about 2 months to go. That's a long time to try to keep the coalition together. All you need is for some fissures in the donors to start to show, or some blunders by some statecraft agencies. It won't take long for a snowball.

The biggest issue is that time is running out. Voting (ballot stuffing) in PA starts in about 2 weeks. Virginia and some other states start soon after that.

But once it becomes less plausible that she could win the election, it becomes more difficult to steal. If this happens, the machine will turn their attention down-ballot to try to thwart Trump's nominees.
 
CaptUSA said:
Here's the thing... (and maybe some good news)

The corporate press and the intel machine have made their bed. Now, they'll have to lay in it. There's about 2 months to go. That's a long time to try to keep the coalition together. All you need is for some fissures in the donors to start to show, or some blunders by some statecraft agencies. It won't take long for a snowball.

The biggest issue is that time is running out. Voting (ballot stuffing) in PA starts in about 2 weeks. Virginia and some other states start soon after that.

But once it becomes less plausible that she could win the election, it becomes more difficult to steal. If this happens, the machine will turn their attention down-ballot to try to thwart Trump's nominees.
Click to expand...

You're exactly right. It's one of those things where, "it works, if it works", meaning, they can absolutely pull this off if they make no mistakes. However, the silver-lining is that, realistically, if they make any mistake, they're finished, because it will just snowball, as you say. The moment one of their vote-steal attempts gets shut down, there are going to be calls from top, in-the-know donors. "I thought we had this on 100% total lockdown? So then why aren't we flipping these key precincts? I'm not paying $100M for Trump to become President because you guys flubbed the ball on the field." Etc. I think that's why Maher is counting this as a Trump shoo-in. But then, Trump could also flub the ball. In my personal opinion (FWIW), I think that's really what Kamala is for... the DS is running her just in case. After all, anything could happen. If there is a hiccup on the Trump side or something goes wrong, they're in position to catch that ball.

And man are those Kamala poll numbers fake. Even Soviet communist party-members would have been shaking their heads reading numbers like that in an issue of Pravda... :tears:

Welcome to Amerika 2024...

 
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