Which all rational and minimally clued-in adults know is just this side of "never happen". Backing down is something the fedgov no longer does, and if you think about it, never really has.
It seems that this is going to end in only one of two ways: WE back down as per the usual, of people start going home in body bags on both sides.
If we back down, BLM does its do and then goes away. Perhaps Bundy is left alive - perhaps not. Nothing new there, most likely.
If we do not back down, BLM will escalate and perhaps call in the backup from ATF, FBI, and so forth. If we refuse to stand down, they will escalate further and this will go on until we quit or the escalation passes the threshold of containment at which point someone is going to start something that will get out of hand rapidly. Once the shooting starts, loss of the least vestige of linearity ensues and behold, a free-for-all. At that point people start dying and getting maimed, etc. and heaven knoly knows where that leads, though possibly nowhere good depending on how things play out.
If "we" win, the feds will be in a fury to pass new legislation and adopt new policies directed toward the goal of disarming us in every sense of the word. The gloves may then be said to have come off, unless these apparently impatient bastards actually are not. But I think Theye will be wildly attempting to get our weapons after such a tête-à-tête and I would anticipate a vigorous, if piecemeal program of door to door confiscation, replete with whatever violence Theye will deem necessary to get the job done including uncharacteristic non-equivocation regarding what awaits those who refuse to cooperate. In the wake of such a fight I see Themme as holding the most brazen pretext for "no mercy" and we will be truly at the nexus and it will be do or capitulate in toto because these bastards will treat us as were the Japanese treated at the end of the Pacific war: unconditional surrender or we will annihilate your species from the planet.
I think "we" will back down. I hope we don't. I don't think Theye will back down. I hope they do. But if it comes to violence, I hope we send them ALL home in ziplock bags because enough is enough already.