AP: Ted Cruz now mathematically eliminated from clinching GOP nomination

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

http://q13fox.com/2016/04/19/ap-ted...m-clinching-gop-nomination-before-convention/

NEW YORK (AP) — Donald Trump is now the only Republican candidate with any chance of clinching the nomination before the convention.

Ted Cruz was mathematically eliminated Tuesday after Trump’s big win in the New York primary.

Trump won at least 89 of the 95 delegates at stake. John Kasich won at least three and Cruz was in danger of being shut out.

There aren’t enough delegates left in future contests for either Cruz or Kasich to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination. Their only hope is to block Trump and force a contested convention.

The AP delegate count:

Trump: 845.

Cruz: 559.

Kasich: 147.

As I predicted a while ago - but the 26th was the conservative number.

This should make the 26th even better for Trump.

 

[SilentBull]

Doesn't matter. If Trump can't clinch it before the convention, Cruz will be the frontrunner. He may win it on the 2nd ballot.

 

[CPUd]

Trump might not even be on the first ballot if he can't get 8 state delegations to put his name up.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

Doesn't matter. If Trump can't clinch it before the convention, Cruz will be the frontrunner. He may win it on the 2nd ballot.

If Trump doesn't clinch it - Cruz would still not be the frontrunner by any stretch of the imagination as he will still have a lot less delegates then Trump. Instead, it will allow the GOPe to choose another candidate not in the race.

This is unlikely to happen, as Trump only needs 53% of the remaining, and if he falls short - he will still able to get unbound delegates or even pick a vp from the candidates other than Cruz as a last resort.

With Erick Erickson in the hospital, voters switching to Kasich now (there is no point to vote for Cruz over Kasich now - it actually gives delegates / voters more power to vote for Kasich), and insiders of the GOPe now announcing they won't show up to the convention, the rout is in place.

 

[MarcusI]

This is unlikely to happen, as Trump only needs 53% of the remaining

63.5% not 53%

https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/722756229420949504

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

53%

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...nomination-cruz-will-mathematically-finished/

It's unlikely Trump would win New York in a landslide, and yet need more delegates afterwards then was widely estimated before Trump won.

 

[CPUd]

538 updated projections:

He won't get those 33 from WV, it is a loophole primary and his campaign did not adequately prepare for the ballot issues. It's all going to come down to how he does in CA. He needs to hit that IN number if he doesn't overperform on Apr 26.

 

[MarcusI]

53% is wrong, 63.5% is correct

Its explained in the Tweet by Josh Pushnam, lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Georgia, which I posted.

The site you linked is a unscientific Trump-Fanboy page.

 

[SilentBull]

Trump might not even be on the first ballot if he can't get 8 state delegations to put his name up.

Interesting. Didn't realize that.

 

[CPUd]

53% is wrong, 63.5% is correct

Its explained in the Tweet by Josh Pushnam, lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Georgia, which I posted.

The site you linked is a unscientific Trump-Fanboy page.

Yeah, he is counting the 54 unbound delegates in PA.

 

[dude58677]

Amazing that people still think of delegates as a scorecard instead of as real people.

 

[Matt Collins]

I dont trust the media to fully comprehend the delegate selection process... very few people actually grasp it.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Trump has 845 delegates which means he needs 392. With 734 yet to be decided, that comes to 53.4% of remaining delegates needed to clinch.

For Cruz to catch Trump in delegates, he needs 653 out of 734 or 89%- otherwise Trump will have more delegates going into the Convention (assumes Kasich gets no delegates which changes this of course- depending on who Kasich takes them from).

 

[TheUglyTruth]

Trump has 845 delegates which means he needs 392. With 734 yet to be decided, that comes to 53.4% of remaining delegates needed to clinch.

Yes, this is correct.

 

[CPUd]

Trump has 845 delegates which means he needs 392. With 734 yet to be decided, that comes to 53.4% of remaining delegates needed to clinch.

For Cruz to catch Trump in delegates, he needs 653 out of 734 or 89%- otherwise Trump will have more delegates going into the Convention (assumes Kasich gets no delegates which changes this of course- depending on who Kasich takes them from).

734 is not the number of bound delegates remaining (which is what the press is supposedly counting), it is 680. Subtract 54 for the unbound seats from PA.

 

[tsai3904]

63.5% not 53%

https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/722756229420949504

His calculation does not include any unbound delegates (including delegates from ND, CO, WY, LA) who are clearly supporting Cruz.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

Cruz would need to be doing 50% better than he has been to be even tied with Trump now. Cruz has 559. If he had half of that again, he would still not have as much as Trump. Very poor competitive candidate.

 

[goldwater's ghost]

if cruz wins indiana and it looks like he will then this comes down to the last day in california and cruz will do well enough to force a brokered convention and probably win on the second ballot. This is a full court press by the trumpettes to get people to stay home and think this is over. it isnt over by a long shot and thats accounting for next weeks trump sweep which will be the donald's last hurrah. on a side note cruz really has around 600 delegatesfor the first ballot and remember that kasich and rubio have 300 between them. if those go to cruz cruz is leading

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

if cruz wins indiana and it looks like he will then this comes down to the last day in california and cruz will do well enough to force a brokered convention and probably win on the second ballot. This is a full court press by the trumpettes to get people to stay home and think this is over. it isnt over by a long shot and thats accounting for next weeks trump sweep which will be the donald's last hurrah. on a side note cruz really has around 600 delegatesfor the first ballot and remember that kasich and rubio have 300 between them. if those go to cruz cruz is leading

This isn't saying anything more then the subject of the thread - that Cruz can't clinch the nomination or win on the first ballot. There is no reason he would win on the second - he isn't that well liked - but that isn't the thread.

Nor is it saying anything new about a brokered convention. Although it may come as a surprise to hard core cruz supporters, most normal voters don't want a brokered convention. If that is the only way Cruz can possibly win, many people will not like the risk. Furthermore - anyone who only wants a brokered convention or are just never trump now have an incentive to vote against Cruz and for Kasich. They have more power at the convention that way.

Face it, Cruz is toast.

 

[spudea]

there won't be a contested convention you fools. Trump can easily get to 1100 pledged delegates in the remaining contests, then get the rest he needs from the unpledged pool for a win on the first ballot.

Any talk of a contested convention at this point is a pipe dream, delusional, denial.