AP: Ted Cruz now mathematically eliminated from clinching GOP nomination

[CPUd]

Rule proposals are currently being discussed. The week before the convention, all the way up to the start the proposed changes will be in Rules Committee. Whatever goes through there goes out to the assembly (looks like this) for final passage, which means if they get that far they probably will be passed.

 

[CPUd]

there won't be a contested convention you fools. Trump can easily get to 1100 pledged delegates in the remaining contests, then get the rest he needs from the unpledged pool for a win on the first ballot.

Any talk of a contested convention at this point is a pipe dream, delusional, denial.

Presently, I don't see 137 unbound delegates who will vote for Trump. Once they're all elected, I'd put a cap on those around 75. The ones I've seen so far are Cruz and Rubio supporters. A couple days ago I thought about Kasich delegates going to Trump in exchange for the VP spot. That sounded good, until I got down to the logistics. If Kasich released his delegates, they would be unbound and could vote for Trump, knowing Kasich would be on the ticket and their votes would give Trump enough to win. the problem with this- most of the Kasich delegate seats outside Ohio are being taken by Cruz people, same as Trump's delegate seats. If they go unbound they will vote for someone other than Trump, probably Cruz on that ballot. I think you can count on at least 60 of the OH delegation being real Kasich supporters.

There is also an issue finding 8 delegations willing to put Trump on the first ballot. The majority of most of these state delegations even though they are bound to Trump are not Trump supporters. I think this probably gets clarified in Rules Committee though, and Trump gets on the first ballot.

Trump will go into the RNC with 1150-1175 pledged delegates (-50 if SC unbinds theirs). No one will know if he wins until after the first ballot. Something major has to happen for that to change:

- Trump wins majorities in DE, RI, CT, MD on Apr 26 and a majority in IN May 3, and majority in CA June 7.
- One of the 3 candidates drop their campaign in the next few weeks.

Currently:
First ballot favors Trump
2nd and 3rd ballots favor Cruz
Ballots after that, anyone's guess. Could be a Kasich/Rubio ticket.

 

[SilentBull]

so you're pro dildo? out of all the positions thats the one you choose? i understand. you hate the guy. you get emotional and angry and even though you have a hundred reasons to be against the guy only a couple pop up in your head because of the hatred. personally i like the guy. he was my second choice after rand. the establishment hated him more than rand until he became the establishment's last hope which i find hysterical and utterly beautiful. the guy is for ending the IRS, taking us back to the gold standard, ending the federal ban on marijuana and leaving it to the states to decide, he wants a federal amendment to allow states to decide on gay marriage. i mean hell, he campaigned in iowa telling them he was against ethanol subsidies. that takes balls. he made money as a teenager giving speeches on von mises and hayek.

i disagree with him on his hyper pro israel policy and am not enthusiastic about spending another decade killing arabs but sometimes we cant get everything we want and hhe is against nation building. i'm willing to trade those if he gets me a balanced budget and starts to eliminate some of our debt

People have different #1 issues. Some care more about foreign policy, which I honestly don't get. To me, economics is #1. Having a candidate who at least understands the unintended consequences of stupid economic policies is so important, especially now that the left is moving even more to the left and are pushing for disastrous policies.

We have a republican party afraid to challenge these idiots on the minimum wage because they fear being called names. Some republicans like Kasich even support the idea! As far as the choices we have now, there is not even a question in my mind as to who I would rather have as the nominee. While I don't like Cruz, I would much rather have someone who will challenge Hillary in the general, on these issues, and even global warming.

Trump has no clue how to defend the free market position. He proved this when he was asked about the minimum wage. He gave the worst fucking possible answer he could have. The man is clueless. The man stated that healthcare is one of the main functions of the government. Again, fucking clueless.

Economics is the most important issue right now because young people are becoming more open to socialism. This is dangerous shit.

 

[Petar]

I've gone back and forth on this.

On the one hand, the best way to destroy the Trump "movement" is to let him win the nomination and then get destroyed by Hillary.

...as will happen, sure as the day is long.

On the other hand, this chimp is really going to be the GOP nominee?

He'll destroy he party as an instrument for, well, anything, including libertarian activity, for many years.

I'm at a loss.

So, by default, my position will be whatever most irritates the Trumpanzees.

Therefore, Go Cruz.

Let's have a brokered convention, with Trump losing in public due to his own electoral incompetence re delegate selection.

Let him be revealed for the imbecile he is.

...Oh, and if anyone challenges the logic of this plan, my retort shall be: "burn it all down," or sumpin.

Your Stockholm is showing

 

[silverhandorder]

Presently, I don't see 137 unbound delegates who will vote for Trump. Once they're all elected, I'd put a cap on those around 75. The ones I've seen so far are Cruz and Rubio supporters. A couple days ago I thought about Kasich delegates going to Trump in exchange for the VP spot. That sounded good, until I got down to the logistics. If Kasich released his delegates, they would be unbound and could vote for Trump, knowing Kasich would be on the ticket and their votes would give Trump enough to win. the problem with this- most of the Kasich delegate seats outside Ohio are being taken by Cruz people, same as Trump's delegate seats. If they go unbound they will vote for someone other than Trump, probably Cruz on that ballot. I think you can count on at least 60 of the OH delegation being real Kasich supporters.

There is also an issue finding 8 delegations willing to put Trump on the first ballot. The majority of most of these state delegations even though they are bound to Trump are not Trump supporters. I think this probably gets clarified in Rules Committee though, and Trump gets on the first ballot.

Trump will go into the RNC with 1150-1175 pledged delegates (-50 if SC unbinds theirs). No one will know if he wins until after the first ballot. Something major has to happen for that to change:

- Trump wins majorities in DE, RI, CT, MD on Apr 26 and a majority in IN May 3, and majority in CA June 7.
- One of the 3 candidates drop their campaign in the next few weeks.

Currently:
First ballot favors Trump
2nd and 3rd ballots favor Cruz
Ballots after that, anyone's guess. Could be a Kasich/Rubio ticket.

After 8 years of losing I learned how to spot wishfull thinking from a mile away. You are 100% wishful thinking that Trump can't take it on first ballot.

I think his ground game is probably just as good as Cruz and Kasich and for you to assume that Cruz has as many stealth delegates as you do is wrong.

Also that does not take into account that people fold under peer pressure. Many Cruz delegates will probably go along with a Trump nomination if he is anywhere close to having a majority.

 

[CPUd]

After 8 years of losing I learned how to spot wishfull thinking from a mile away. You are 100% wishful thinking that Trump can't take it on first ballot.

I think his ground game is probably just as good as Cruz and Kasich and for you to assume that Cruz has as many stealth delegates as you do is wrong.

Also that does not take into account that people fold under peer pressure. Many Cruz delegates will probably go along with a Trump nomination if he is anywhere close to having a majority.

Trump does have a strong shot at taking it on the first ballot, it will depend on his performance over the next 2 months.

I'm not assuming anything about the ground game; I know Trump doesn't really have one and Cruz has one better than anything Ron 2012 had. What I post about Trump delegates supporting other candidates I am getting directly from the ground through hard research, not wishful thinking. It is a morbid hobby of mine to study these things.

 

[silverhandorder]

Trump does have a strong shot at taking it on the first ballot, it will depend on his performance over the next 2 months.

I'm not assuming anything about the ground game; I know Trump doesn't really have one and Cruz has one better than anything Ron 2012 had. What I post about Trump delegates supporting other candidates I am getting directly from the ground through hard research, not wishful thinking. It is a morbid hobby of mine to study these things.

I heard all of this from RP people in 2008 and 2012. Sorry you don't sound convincing.

 

[erowe1]

The rules set by the 2012 Convention are still in force and can only be changed by the Rules Committee at the 2016 RNC. If they don't change anything, then the 2012 rules stand.

Obviously, if they choose to just redo the same rules as were used in 2012, then that goes without saying. But the point is, that's up to them. And why would they do that? Only if those are the rules they actually want to adopt. It's not like there's some presumption of keeping them.

 

[erowe1]

I heard all of this from RP people in 2008 and 2012.

You're joking, right?

 

[fcreature]

I think his ground game is probably just as good as Cruz

You think?

 

[silverhandorder]

Yeah it takes ground game to win states. You need voter outreach, media and campaign gear.

Also no one is going to advertise successes with delegates if they are trying to cobble together a coalition for the first ballot.

 

[CPUd]

I heard all of this from RP people in 2008 and 2012. Sorry you don't sound convincing.

I'm not trying to convince anyone, you can ignore what I post and I won't care. But you won't be allowed to openly dismiss it.

 

[silverhandorder]

That's fine. So far you have not differentiated how you are any different then what some wishfull thinking RP people did.

 

[CPUd]

That's fine. So far you have not differentiated how you are any different then what some wishfull thinking RP people did.

For most on here, I don't need to.

 

[erowe1]

People have different #1 issues. Some care more about foreign policy, which I honestly don't get.

Murdering lots and lots of people is a big deal. And it also has a huge effect on domestic economic issues.

 

[fcreature]

Yeah it takes ground game to win states. You need voter outreach, media and campaign gear.

Uh, no, not really. It takes name recognition, media exposure, and perceived front-runner status to win primaries. It takes ground game to win caucuses and delegates.

 

[nikcers]

Murdering lots and lots of people is a big deal. And it also has a huge effect on domestic economic issues.

That oil bubble is going to murder a lot more people. I keep hearing rumors that China will take the blame this time. Maybe it will be easier to sell the bread and circus with a real clown.

 

[silverhandorder]

Uh, no, not really. It takes name recognition, media exposure, and perceived front-runner status to win primaries. It takes ground game to win caucuses and delegates.

Jeb Bush, Marco Robio even the outperformance in NY would disagree with that acessment.

To win a caucus you need to organize a small number of people. To win a primary you need a lot more.

All things are a factor don't get me wrong. I just think they are less lopsided as some people claim.

 

[nikcers]

Since Trump supporters are a manufactured feedback loop its always best to have them debate themself. Case in point,

Jeb Bush, Marco Robio even the outperformance in NY would disagree with that acessment.

To win a caucus you need to organize a small number of people. To win a primary you need a lot more.

All things are a factor don't get me wrong. I just think they are less lopsided as some people claim.

Yeah it takes ground game to win states. You need voter outreach, media and campaign gear.

Also no one is going to advertise successes with delegates if they are trying to cobble together a coalition for the first ballot.

 

[fcreature]

Jeb Bush, Marco Robio even the outperformance in NY would disagree with that acessment.

How so? I would say they support it.

To win a caucus you need to organize a small number of people. To win a primary you need a lot more.

Yes, to win a caucus you need to organize a small amount of people. To win a primary not much organization (at least when compared to a caucus) is really needed. If you have enough name recognition, media exposure and are a perceived front runner, most of it will take care of itself.