AP/Pew Nov Poll: Ron Paul 9%

[cdellin]

From Poll: Romney Maintains Lead in NH:

THE RACE: The presidential race for Republicans in New Hampshire

THE NUMBERS
Mitt Romney, 37 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 19 percent
John McCain, 15 percent
Ron Paul, 9 percent
Mike Huckabee, 7 percent

Almost in double digits! Donate to Operation Live Free or Die to help out!

- Chris

 

[xd9fan]

and isnt this 2000 and 2004 GOP primary voters

WE are going to shock and awe!!!

 

[nist7]

We are already in the double digits:

"The telephone poll, done by The Associated Press and the Pew Research Center, was conducted Nov. 7-25 and involved interviews with 446 likely Republican voters in New Hampshire. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points."

Error margin is 5.5%...this makes almost everyone an equal contender, except for Romney, who seems to be clearly in front.

 

[ItsTime]

These are mostly Bush Voters:

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=375

Scroll down and look on the right sidebar. Iowa Bush approval rating 80% 72% in SC???? New Hampshire 55% dont know 10%???? Bush voters.

 

[Badger Paul]

Romney's in front now but if he loses to Huckabee in Iowa his campaign will come undone and that will open New Hampshire to us.

 

[literatim]

Romney's in front now but if he loses to Huckabee in Iowa his campaign will come undone and that will open New Hampshire to us.

If he loses to Ron Paul in Iowa, his campaign will come undone.

 

[pdog]

Iowa would look better for Paul if Tancredo dropped out.

 

[ThePieSwindler]

Isnt paul polling like 27% among independants? I remember a poll a week or so ago that had a statistic like that. If so, arent his real numbers then among all NH voters much higher, basically 2nd place behind Romney(who also leads among indys)? It seems Romney is our only real overall competition.

 

[EvilEngineer]

Lol.. did thompson drop off the face of the earth?

 

[ItsTime]

Yes he is. Behind Mitt at 31%

This poll is all Bush supporters:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=526474&postcount=4

Isnt paul polling like 27% among independants? I remember a poll a week or so ago that had a statistic like that. If so, arent his real numbers then among all NH voters much higher, basically 2nd place behind Romney(who also leads among indys)? It seems Romney is our only real overall competition.

 

[RPinSEAZ]

At this point someone losing to Huckabee in Iowa is not a surprise and won't destroy a campaign, but anyone losing to Ron Paul, Huckabee, Tom Tancredo or Fred Thompson in New Hampshire is effectively done.

 

[PredatorOC]

These are mostly Bush Voters:

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=375

Scroll down and look on the right sidebar. Iowa Bush approval rating 80% 72% in SC???? New Hampshire 55% dont know 10%???? Bush voters.

Wow.

I thought the 'they only poll Bush supporters' line was a myth, but it seems to be the case at least with this poll. 77% support for the war among NH republicans? Doesn't seem to add up any other way.

 

[ItsTime]

Myth no more we have proof. Spread it.

Wow.

I thought the 'they only poll Bush supporters' line was a myth, but it seems to be the case at least with this poll. 77% support for the war among NH republicans? Doesn't seem to add up any other way.

 

[margomaps]

This is very interesting, since a poll came out last week that showed Huckabee at...what, 14% in NH? It really speaks to the variability of the poll results, and drives home the importance of remembering that margin-of-error!

 

[nist7]

Isnt paul polling like 27% among independants? I remember a poll a week or so ago that had a statistic like that. If so, arent his real numbers then among all NH voters much higher, basically 2nd place behind Romney(who also leads among indys)? It seems Romney is our only real overall competition.

This is exactly why ALL the poll numbers lie. Dr. Paul is polling in voters that have never voted, and voters from other parties.

It's really up in the air right now and we'll find out in a few weeks.....

 

[gagnonstudio]

Wow.

I thought the 'they only poll Bush supporters' line was a myth, but it seems to be the case at least with this poll. 77% support for the war among NH republicans? Doesn't seem to add up any other way.

I said this yesterday and got flamed. Glad you agree about the bush supporters thing, and didn't get flamed yet.

 

[constituent]

it's not up in the air. it is securely in the hands of very dedicated supporters knocking on doors in all of these key states... they're winning this thing one day at a time.

 

[Mattsa]

This is exactly why ALL the poll numbers lie. Dr. Paul is polling in voters that have never voted, and voters from other parties.

It's really up in the air right now and we'll find out in a few weeks.....

All the more reason for them to try to rig the vote, and I have no doubt there will be foul play if RP does too well against the opposition.

Has any independent organization figured out a way to accurately sample the likely outcome?

 

[margomaps]

I said this yesterday and got flamed. Glad you agree about the bush supporters thing, and didn't get flamed yet.

There's a big difference between having your inaccurate statements called out, and 'getting flamed'.

While I agree that the results of some of these polls suggest that the respondents apparently approve of Bush's performance at a higher rate than the national average, this certainly does not mean that "The pollsters only called Republicans who voted for Bush in the 2004 primaries!!!" -- an annoyingly baseless claim I see being made here with alarming frequency.

I think there's a misunderstanding going on here. It could very well be that -- for some as-yet unknown/unproven reason -- Bush supporters are being overrepresented in telephone polls. I won't deny that this is a possibility. And I won't deny the implication: that Ron's "real" support is likely higher than the polls indicate.

But to childishly claim that polling companies are going out of their way to include only "Bush 2004 primary voters" in their samples...well, that's out of line. To those who make this claim, I say: grow up!

 

[RPinSEAZ]

I think there's a misunderstanding going on here. It could very well be that -- for some as-yet unknown/unproven reason -- Bush supporters are being overrepresented in telephone polls. I won't deny that this is a possibility. And I won't deny the implication: that Ron's "real" support is likely higher than the polls indicate.

Polling companies are not stupid either and they correct their polling figures to account for over-representation or under-representation of particular demographics.