"And there's no way - no way - I'll vote for Romney." - Read on, this may be THE issue.

Matt Collins said:
They did poll NH... apparently this issue didn't move voters.
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Do you have a sample of this poll that explicitly mentions Northern Pass and Romney's links to it? Please post this poll and the results along with the name of this specific polling company and their methodology.
 
Matt Collins said:
What polling data do you have to support this? :confused:
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He is basing it on real world results of where he ran the ad on his own dime. Unlike your pathetic lie about Tom Woods.

What polling data did Ron Paul 2012 have showing Ron Paul could win Michigan? Was that provided by Mitt Romney's campaign?
 
phill4paul said:
Do you have a sample of this poll that explicitly mentions Northern Pass and Romney's links to it? Please post this poll and the results along with the name of this specific polling company and their methodology.
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If the campaign internals had shown it was a winnable issue, they would've started talking about it obviously. Unless of course Ron didn't want to.
 
phill4paul said:
Do you have a sample of this poll that explicitly mentions Northern Pass and Romney's links to it? Please post this poll and the results along with the name of this specific polling company and their methodology.
Click to expand...

It's unlikely that a campaign would ever publicly release internal polling.
 
Matt Collins said:
If the campaign internals had shown it was a winnable issue, they would've started talking about it obviously. Unless of course Ron didn't want to.
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He WAS asked about it, the quote I used in the ad was from Ron in the Concord Monitor.

And thanks to Phill for pointing this out:

Show me the poll that included this as a specific issue and that this issue generated no response amongst the NH voters.

It was not and is not a big "national" issue, but it sure as hell was a big NH issue at the time.
 
jjdoyle said:
He is basing it on real world results of where he ran the ad on his own dime. Unlike your pathetic lie about Tom Woods.
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Honestly...

The ads ran in three papers across NH.

Two weeks later, IIRC the dates, those papers endorsed Ron.

Then he won Coos county, one of the places that would be most affected by NP.

The campaign wanted no part of it, didn't even want to try and look at it.

The campaign being run by Benton.

Jesus.

You can only run around saying "logical fallacy" so often, until it becomes ridiculous.

Strike a match and hold it to paper, and the paper will burn.

Obvious facts are obvious.
 
Anti Federalist said:
Honestly...

The ads ran in three papers across NH.

Two weeks later, IIRC the dates, those papers endorsed Ron.

Then he won Coos county, one of the places that would be most affected by NP.

The campaign wanted no part of it, didn't even want to try and look at it.

The campaign being run by Benton.

Jesus.

You can only run around saying "logical fallacy" so often, until it becomes ridiculous.

Strike a match and hold it to paper, and the paper will burn.

Obvious facts are obvious.
Click to expand...
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/false-cause


Not saying there was no connection, but stringing a bunch of facts together does not equal causation.

Anyway, what polling data do you have to show that this was a winning issue?
 
jmdrake said:
Matt question. How many science classes did you take in college? How many logic classes did you take? WRT science, not all science is based on "polling". Sometimes there are things called "controlled experiments". That's what it sounds like AF did. He tested his hypothesis by taking out ads and seeing if there was an effect. Seems like there was. His not having a "poll" to go along with it does in no way negate the validity of this experiment. And copying and pasting from "your logical fallacy.com" doesn't make you a logician. Just saying.
Click to expand...
There was no control group.... and there was no proof of correlation... a poll showing this being a winning issue would go a long way to linking the two and making correlation and causation much more likely.
 
jmdrake said:
Sorry Matt. You're not a scientist. Quit trying to play one on the internet. The "control group" are the counties that didn't get any ad money.
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No, because they are not identical to the counties where ads were run... therefore they cannot be a control group because they are different than the variable group.
 
Matt Collins said:
No, because they are not identical to the counties where ads were run... therefore they cannot be a control group because they are different than the variable group.
Click to expand...

Then it's not possible to have a control group at all because no two counties in the nation are absolutely identical.

Which means there's no possible way to turn political science into a hard science.

Which means your logical fallacy is demanding hard science back up any claims and that no technique is worth anything unless it has hard scientific proof behind it, when there is nothing--nothing at all--that you will accept as hard scientific proof.

Have fun stagnating. Excuse us for not joining you in that.
 
acptulsa said:
Then it's not possible to have a control group at all because no two counties in the nation are absolutely identical.

Which means there's no possible way to turn political science into a hard science.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree, which is why polling the counties in question is the only way to show correlation
 
Pity the campaign didn't have a grassroots liaison sharp enough to tell the campaign this was going on so they could conduct a poll at the time. Might have yielded useful data.
 
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