"And there's no way - no way - I'll vote for Romney." - Read on, this may be THE issue.

[jmdrake]

No, because they are not identical to the counties where ads were run... therefore they cannot be a control group because they are different than the variable group.

Again, you're not scientist. Control groups are never "identical", just reasonably close. You've not given any argument as to why they aren't reasonably close. And your explanation as to why the newspapers where the advertisements were bought endorsed Ron is what exactly?

 

[acptulsa]

I happen to believe in microtargeting, myself.

Goes along with my libertarian love of decentralization, I guess.

 

[libertarianinternational]

What polling data do you have to support this?

There's a lot of people with links to the NYC area in NH and lots of farmland as well. If Ron Paul had run on a platform of 9/11 truth, GMO labeling and ending the systemic use of chemtrails, I am sure he would have won. Seems like people like you and Jesse tried to censor Ron and prevent him speaking the truth.

 

[Matt Collins]

Again, you're not scientist. Control groups are never "identical", just reasonably close. You've not given any argument as to why they aren't reasonably close.

Is Williamson County and Shelby County close at all? Or even Williamson and Davidson?

 

[Anti Federalist]

Anyway, what polling data do you have to show that this was a winning issue?

NH GOP primary voting results.

I ran the ads the last week of December IIRC.

The Salmon Press Newspapers group (the Littleton Courier, Berlin Reporter, and Coos County Democrat) endorsed Paul on January 4

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2012

They endorsed on 4 Jan, I am convinced because of that ad. And the ONLY major newspaper outlet to do so in NH.

RP then went on to win Coos county, where this issue was important, where I ran the ads, and where the local paper group endorsed him.

Now, that, to me, is fairly conclusive proof that the issue resonated, was important and Ron was on the right side of.

The campaign deliberately screwed the pooch on this, it was not like they didn't know, and Benton was in charge.

At the very least, I have a better record, working on my own dumb HS drop out ass, than the "official" campaign did, with more degrees than a thermometer hanging about, drawing six figure salaries.

ETA - Reading back through this thread, I see my memory is not too far off, and the dates are correct.

 

[Anti Federalist]

I don't disagree, which is why polling the counties in question is the only way to show correlation

Polling will prove correlation but winning does not.

Gotcha.

 

[Anti Federalist]

And thanks to the mod who shifted the argument to this thread.

+rep

 

[jmdrake]

Is Williamson County and Shelby County close at all? Or even Williamson and Davidson?

Matt, you haven't made an argument about the counties the ad was run in. That said, is Williamson County close at all to Rutherford County? Yes. If your claim is that the three counties that AF ran the ads in are significantly different than every other county in the state....well extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. So where's your proof? Really Matt, your argument is silly.

 

[jmdrake]

Matt, please answer this question.

Your explanation as to why the newspapers where the advertisements were bought endorsed Ron is what exactly?

 

[specsaregood]

The campaign deliberately screwed the pooch on this, it was not like they didn't know, and Benton was in charge.

At the very least, I have a better record, working on my own dumb HS drop out ass, than the "official" campaign did, with more degrees than a thermometer hanging about, drawing six figure salaries.

ETA - Reading back through this thread, I see my memory is not too far off, and the dates are correct.

So what is the lesson here? That a future campaign might be wise to spend some effort talking to and researching hotbutton local issues and campaigning on those instead of only national issues/politics?

 

[Anti Federalist]

Matt, you haven't made an argument about the counties the ad was run in. That said, is Williamson County close at all to Rutherford County? Yes. If your claim is that the three counties that AF ran the ads in are significantly different than every other county in the state....well extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. So where's your proof? Really Matt, your argument is silly.

And it is not just this, I am using this because I had first hand knowledge of it.

But the campaign was a disaster in NH, and now I've become convinced that it was deliberate, that the fix was in for Romney all along.

The only question I have at this point is: did Ron know of and approve of this plan?

I hate to think for a second that he did.

 

[jmdrake]

So what is the lesson here? That a future campaign might be wise to spend some effort talking to and researching hotbutton local issues and campaigning on those instead of only national issues/politics?

The grassroots needs to better organize and work together and not rely on the national campaign for everything. We've got $520K in RP 2012 funds right now sitting in a legal fund. Some of the money that went to national should have gone to AF's effort. That's the real lesson here. In 2008 grassroots money was wasted on projects like the blimp. In 2012 national money was wasted on ads attacking Santorum and Gingrich when they were already basically toast. And really, the biggest lesson is that we all need our own personal campaign war chest long before we get to 2016. If more of us can max out our national funds early and then direct money to worthy grassroots efforts that's a winning combination. This makes me thankful that there are campaign finance limits or else nobody would ever max out.

 

[Anti Federalist]

So what is the lesson here? That a future campaign might be wise to spend some effort talking to and researching hotbutton local issues and campaigning on those instead of only national issues/politics?

Yes, in a nutshell.

Certainly Randal would be unwise to campaign in Missouri for instance, and not address how his brand of "libertarianism" could prevent another Mike Brown killing and the unrest that it unleashed.

 

[Anti Federalist]

The grassroots needs to better organize and work together and not rely on the national campaign for everything. We've got $520K in RP 2012 funds right now sitting in a legal fund. Some of the money that went to national should have gone to AF's effort. That's the real lesson here. In 2008 grassroots money was wasted on projects like the blimp. In 2012 national money was wasted on ads attacking Santorum and Gingrich when they were already basically toast. And really, the biggest lesson is that we all need our own personal campaign war chest long before we get to 2016. If more of us can max out our national funds early and then direct money to worthy grassroots efforts that's a winning combination. This makes me thankful that there are campaign finance limits or else nobody would ever max out.

And that.

My mistake was listening to the "officials" too long.

Damn them, everybody needs to work on what they see as best.

 

[cajuncocoa]

And it is not just this, I am using this because I had first hand knowledge of it.

But the campaign was a disaster in NH, and now I've become convinced that it was deliberate, that the fix was in for Romney all along.

The only question I have at this point is: did Ron know of and approve of this plan?

I hate to think for a second that he did.

Here's my theory.....

The campaign aka RonPaul, Inc. (RPI) told Ron he couldn't win. Whether or not that was really true (that he couldn't win), none of us will ever know. But they wanted to keep the fire burning for Rand. Ron was OK with that. Rand's his son, after all.

RPI convinced Ron to play along -- after convincing him that he couldn't win in 2012 -- they convinced him to help Romney, they got Rand the spot on Hannity to endorse Romney (so what if that pisses off Dad's grassroots supporters? we'll need to kick them under the bus before 2016 rolls around anyway!) They'll get Rand elected by watering down Ron's message....again, so what if the grassroots gets pissed off? It's not about them, it's about the low-hanging fruit....and just think of the plum jobs the members of RPI will have in a Rand Paul administration one day. Yes, indeed.

Life is good.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Here's my theory.....

The campaign aka RonPaul, Inc. (RPI) told Ron he couldn't win. Whether or not that was really true (that he couldn't win), none of us will ever know. But they wanted to keep the fire burning for Rand. Ron was OK with that. Rand's his son, after all.

RPI convinced Ron to play along -- after convincing him that he couldn't win in 2012 -- they convinced him to help Romney, they got Rand the spot on Hannity to endorse Romney (so what if that pisses off Dad's grassroots supporters? we'll need to kick them under the bus before 2016 rolls around anyway!) They'll get Rand elected by watering down Ron's message....again, so what if the grassroots gets pissed off? It's not about them, it's about the low-hanging fruit....and just think of the plum jobs the members of RPI will have in a Rand Paul administration one day. Yes, indeed.

Life is good.

I think you are probably pretty close to correct.

The Goldwater Revolution, before I was born, was supposed to "change things".

The Reagan Revolution, that I was part of, was supposed to "change things".

The Contract with America Revolution in 1994, was supposed to "change things".

The Consolidated GOP Revolution in DC during the first Bush years, was supposed to "change things".

The Ron Paul Revolution, was supposed to "change things".

The Rand Paul Revolution will "change things". We promise, this time.

Politics is entertainment for tyrants, played out for their benefit, by suckers, chumps and fools.

People do not want freedom, they never have wanted freedom, and the only times the human race has had a little bit of freedom is when men of action SEIZED it from the wretched refuse of the political and ruling classes and ignored the howls and protestations of the Stockholm Syndrome addled masses.

Until they themselves turned into the "pigs".

It is long past time to re-set the clock to zero.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

So what is the lesson here? That a future campaign might be wise to spend some effort talking to and researching hotbutton local issues and campaigning on those instead of only national issues/politics?

I happen to believe in microtargeting, myself.

Goes along with my libertarian love of decentralization, I guess.

Yeah, sounds like good ideas. I would guess that the caveat is to make sure that positions on local issues do not conflict with each other or with national positions.

 

[philipped]

Here's my theory.....

The campaign aka RonPaul, Inc. (RPI) told Ron he couldn't win. Whether or not that was really true (that he couldn't win), none of us will ever know. But they wanted to keep the fire burning for Rand. Ron was OK with that. Rand's his son, after all.

RPI convinced Ron to play along -- after convincing him that he couldn't win in 2012 -- they convinced him to help Romney, they got Rand the spot on Hannity to endorse Romney (so what if that pisses off Dad's grassroots supporters? we'll need to kick them under the bus before 2016 rolls around anyway!) They'll get Rand elected by watering down Ron's message....again, so what if the grassroots gets pissed off? It's not about them, it's about the low-hanging fruit....and just think of the plum jobs the members of RPI will have in a Rand Paul administration one day. Yes, indeed.

Life is good.

Ron Paul Inc. Will not be Rand Paul's campaign. When did we draw the conclusion that it would be?