Analyzing the counties Rand vs Dem from primary votes

[DirtMcGirt]

Here is an interactive map on politico...

we should come up some ideas of what counties we need to do extra work in based on total Republican vs Democrat votes, Rand votes vs Conway votes by county, and the counties Mongiardo did the best in etc...

These numbers could also be compared to the regions in which Republicans did well in '08. In off year elections you must get all strongholds out to vote...


http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Senate/2010/KY


edit: here is Mitch's win in '08
http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Senate/2008/KY

 

[Aratus]

early morning BUMP!

 

[GreenRiver]

Just remember this dynamic in Kentucky politics... Most voters are democrat usually because they work in manufacturing or because of family history but when push comes to shove they vote for the candidate with the best message on values. My in-laws have been registered democrats because they are "for the working man, etc..." but will admit that all politicians are crooks. Also, many dem voters who have regular church attendance and involvement will vote on a single issue...abortion.

 

[torchbearer]

there is also the independant/third party vote too. the people in the middle decide the election.
in the past, they leaned towards the GOP.

 

[Matt Collins]

 

[skyorbit]

Didn't the libertarian party officially state they weren't running anybody because of Rand?

Tracy

 

[Trigonx]

If you look at some of the Eastern Counties, Mongiardo won by a huge margin, while Rand Paul and Grayson were neck and neck.

 

[BamaFanNKy]

If you look at some of the Eastern Counties, Mongiardo won by a huge margin, while Ron Paul and Grayson were neck and neck.

Rand will win E. Ky and N. Ky. He'll also carry Lexington. Louisville is Conway's only hope.

 

[Jeremy]

there is also the independant/third party vote too. the people in the middle decide the election.
in the past, they leaned towards the GOP.

I think LP and CP (two biggest third parties) are not running a candidate because of Rand.

If you look at some of the Eastern Counties, Mongiardo won by a huge margin, while Ron Paul and Grayson were neck and neck.

you mean rand

lol

 

[Trigonx]

I think LP and CP (two biggest third parties) are not running a candidate because of Rand.



you mean rand

lol

no, if you look at the counties in South Eastern Kentucky that Mongiardo won with 60%-80% of the vote, you will notice how Rand and Trey are neck and neck in those counties.

for example look at Clay county and Bell County, Perry County, Letcher County, and Leslie County, Knott County.

 

[Jeremy]

I mean that you said Ron Paul, but meant Rand Paul

heh

 

[Trigonx]

I mean that you said Ron Paul, but meant Rand Paul

heh

oh shit, good catch. Wow.

 

[DeadheadForPaul]

We should definitely make a list of the "most important" counties aka the Mongiardo counties

Mong voters are probably more moderate/conservative than Conway voters, so we should try to convert those counties.

We also need to focus on Grayson counties and put boots on the ground in those

 

[DirtMcGirt]

We should definitely make a list of the "most important" counties aka the Mongiardo counties

Mong voters are probably more moderate/conservative than Conway voters, so we should try to convert those counties.

We also need to focus on Grayson counties and put boots on the ground in those

At first glance here are the counties w/ the highest votes that Mongiardo won.
FYI- Mongiardo won a ton of counties but Conway dominated Jefferson county.
Preliminary list:

Mongiardo's %

Davies- - 44.3% -------------------------- 5,668 votes

Bell- - 72.1% -------------------------- 1,935 votes
Letcher -- 73.9% -------------------------- 3,772
Perry - - 77.1% -------------------------- 5,786
Pike - - 58.7 -------------------------- 6,311
Floyd - - 53.6 -------------------------- 6,746
Marshall - - 60% -------------------------- 4,097
Muhlenberg - - 56.9 -------------------------- 4226
Graves - - 56.4% -------------------------- 3,966
Christian- - 43.7% -------------------------- 2,685
Henderson was interesting b/c it was the biggest cluster: Buckmaster 2,867 Mongiaro 2820

 

[DirtMcGirt]

http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Senate/2008/KY

This is the link to the map of Mitch McConnell's map in '08...

He won 953,816 to 847,005 * obviously noting this was a Presidential year election...

 

[DirtMcGirt]

maybe we can pick several counties RPF can focus on. We can launch some small print ads in those counties' local papers or if there is some kind of summer or fall festivals we can organize some other type of action...

 

[Moxxar]

maybe we can pick several counties RPF can focus on. We can launch some small print ads in those counties' local papers or if there is some kind of summer or fall festivals we can organize some other type of action...

I love this idea! This removes the limits of foreign supporters to help out a bit as well.

 

[thomas-in-ky]

In some of the heavy republican counties, like mine, it will be a get-out-the-vote effort. We have roughly 6800 registered republicans and 2200 registered democrats. Our primary turnout is usually greater than our general election turnout, because local republicans always win in the fall, so a lot of people don't even bother going to vote in the fall.

 

[DirtMcGirt]

Let's get serious, can we break this down to 5 areas and how many votes we need per area?

 

[molly_pitcher]

He needs to focus on Fayette (which is polling good) and Jefferson (down two points). Take those 2 counties and a handful more and you have it. He almost can't win without those two counties. We really need to secure a Jefferson county win. Louisville supporters need to get out the vote.

Check out how many counties Mongiardo had Vs Conway and you'll see my point.