Ames Straw Poll By the Numbers (Or, How Many People Does Ron Paul Need to Win?)

[The Dark Knight]

Bachmann is the favorite with Pawlenty and Ron Paul right behind her. Intrade confirms this. Lets remember that Rick Perry has not announced yet. It will have an effect on Pawlenty's support.

 

[freedom-maniac]

Bachmann is the favorite with Pawlenty and Ron Paul right behind her. Intrade confirms this. Lets remember that Rick Perry has not announced yet. It will have an effect on Pawlenty's support.

How so?

 

[Paul4Prez]

The straw poll is a must-win for Ron Paul. If he finishes second or third, the media will downplay it and crown the winner the new front-runner, or the co-front runner with Romney. If Ron Paul wins, they will downplay the whole thing and say it doesn't count because Romney skipped it, but people nationwide will notice, and will no longer believe the media trying to paint him as a long shot.

 

[1836]

The straw poll is a must-win for Ron Paul. If he finishes second or third, the media will downplay it and crown the winner the new front-runner, or the co-front runner with Romney. If Ron Paul wins, they will downplay the whole thing and say it doesn't count because Romney skipped it, but people nationwide will notice, and will no longer believe the media trying to paint him as a long shot.

I am not sure they can downplay a win at Ames. The Iowa media certainly won't downplay it, and it will force the people of Iowa to notice –*along with the Iowa Republican establishment. It doesn't mean we get an endorsement from Steve King or Terry Branstad or the like. It does mean that we would instantly gain credibility in Iowa.

 

[Badger Paul]

Good work my friend. I predict about 15,000 voters as well and urge persons to use the grassroots calling platform because we need to turn out Democrats and Independents in order to win.

 

[free.alive]

Great Analysis! Wrong conclusion, however.

We should shoot for getting 4,000 to 5,000 votes in the Ames Straw Poll.

That's a losing strategy. If the record is 7500 votes, we shoot to get 8000 votes. You assume this will be a record turnout year. The campaign and we supporters should work all asses off trying to compete for as many typical Republican voters as possible - we'll pick off a lot if we work at it. We need to turn out every existing Ron Paul supporter who is out there. We need every student from Iowa, every student in Iowa and every Democrat who likes Ron Paul to caucus for him, and the grassroots and campaign should dump money into making sure they get there.

Iowa is huge for Ron Paul. He and we need to own it. The only way to be confident we just might pull that off is to shoot for and organize for an outrageous goal of a record number of votes. It's possible if we make it possible.

Awesome work, though!

 

[1836]

Great Analysis! Wrong conclusion, however.



That's a losing strategy. If the record is 7500 votes, we shoot to get 8000 votes. You assume this will be a record turnout year. The campaign and we supporters should work all asses off trying to compete for as many typical Republican voters as possible - we'll pick off a lot if we work at it. We need to turn out every existing Ron Paul supporter who is out there. We need every student from Iowa, every student in Iowa and every Democrat who likes Ron Paul to caucus for him, and the grassroots and campaign should dump money into making sure they get there.

Iowa is huge for Ron Paul. He and we need to own it. The only way to be confident we just might pull that off is to shoot for and organize for an outrageous goal of a record number of votes. It's possible if we make it possible.

Awesome work, though!

I would agree with the general idea that we should shoot for as many votes as we can muster, but is it realistically possible? Having been through the '07 campaign as I'm sure you were, I remember a lot of lofty expectations that were never met and indeed, created a great deal of disenchantment among the grassroots.

I'm not looking to be a downer or a pessimist. However, I think we need to be honest with ourselves. 5,000 people at Ames would be a tremendous accomplishment. We also need to ask, how much is the campaign willing to spend on getting people to the straw poll? How much are we? Mitt Romney reportedly spent more than $1 million in 2007 to win the straw poll. Let's say he ended up spending exactly $1 million (but surely it was more than that –*some reports simply say "millions" but I haven't been able to find an exact figure).

He got 4,516 votes. That works out to just over $221 per vote.

I would argue that because of our need to reach farther in the state to get support (as opposed to just being able to grab supporters from the greater Des Moines area), we would need to spend more. If we spent an average of $300 per vote, that's $1.5 million for 5,000 votes. It could end up being even more than that.

Is the campaign willing to spend upwards of $1 million to win the straw poll? How about the fact that even spending all that may only result in a second place finish?

The grassroots may have devised a really great system with rp2012.org, or may not. The campaign is telling the grassroots, "don't do it!" Well, what is the campaign's strategy? Are they willing to spend the dough necessary to make this thing happen, or not?

And if the grassroots isn't supposed to do anything, then what are we supposed to do? Sit around and fritter our time away, hoping that a lot of the same folks from 2007 have things under control?

 

[libertybrewcity]

40k votes is a reasonable goal.

 

[1836]

For the whole caucus you mean?

 

[Paul Or Nothing II]

I'm not looking to be a downer or a pessimist. However, I think we need to be honest with ourselves. 5,000 people at Ames would be a tremendous accomplishment. We also need to ask, how much is the campaign willing to spend on getting people to the straw poll? How much are we? Mitt Romney reportedly spent more than $1 million in 2007 to win the straw poll. Let's say he ended up spending exactly $1 million (but surely it was more than that –*some reports simply say "millions" but I haven't been able to find an exact figure).

He got 4,516 votes. That works out to just over $221 per vote.

I would argue that because of our need to reach farther in the state to get support (as opposed to just being able to grab supporters from the greater Des Moines area), we would need to spend more. If we spent an average of $300 per vote, that's $1.5 million for 5,000 votes. It could end up being even more than that.

Is the campaign willing to spend upwards of $1 million to win the straw poll? How about the fact that even spending all that may only result in a second place finish?

I think Iowa is Ron's chance to make the biggest splash he can on the national stage, very little scope of that after Iowa so the campaign MUST throw everything into it & ensure a VICTORY, 2nd or 3rd may mean something to the likes of Bachmann, Cain, etc but for Ron it'd mean next to NOTHING because media will play it down as usual, in fact, I think they'll play it down even if he won but that's as much as we can do but a victory is a MUST for Ron otherwise Ron's chances of securing more voters in the primaries would be pretty much non-existent.

So with that being said, I think the campaign MUST spend as much as they can & should try to secure at least 7000 or so votes; we can't take any chances & as I've said before, I'm sure the numbers within the state have reached around 20000 or so at the least & since Ron Paul supporters always tend to be the most driven, we shouldn't be having trouble in convincing them to come, especially since the campaign will take care of the expenses.

 

[ForLibertyFight]

Ames Straw Poll will either make or break this campaign.

Winning the Ames Straw Poll needs to be our #1 priority. It will destroy the common belief that RP is unelectable

 

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Ames Straw Poll will either make or break this campaign.

Winning the Ames Straw Poll needs to be our #1 priority. It will destroy the common belief that RP is unelectable

Yup, campaign must throw everything they've got & WIN otherwise this run will also end up like 2008; & it is also an investment of sorts in the sense that a win would probably bring in "I like Ron but I won't vote for him because he can't win" people to the campaign & they would start donating to Ron after that & more people joining in would also mean faster dissemination of our message.

 

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Yup, campaign must throw everything they've got & WIN otherwise this run will also end up like 2008; & it is also an investment of sorts in the sense that a win would probably bring in "I like Ron but I won't vote for him because he can't win" people to the campaign & they would start donating to Ron after that & more people joining in would also mean faster dissemination of our message.

While I don't think a 2nd would be complete devastation, I agree a win would be big. Winning over those "like him but he can't win" people is the momentum builder we're looking for. The faster this wagon starts rolling downhill, the more people will jump on for the ride.

 

[1836]

I think Iowa is Ron's chance to make the biggest splash he can on the national stage, very little scope of that after Iowa so the campaign MUST throw everything into it & ensure a VICTORY, 2nd or 3rd may mean something to the likes of Bachmann, Cain, etc but for Ron it'd mean next to NOTHING because media will play it down as usual, in fact, I think they'll play it down even if he won but that's as much as we can do but a victory is a MUST for Ron otherwise Ron's chances of securing more voters in the primaries would be pretty much non-existent.

So with that being said, I think the campaign MUST spend as much as they can & should try to secure at least 7000 or so votes; we can't take any chances & as I've said before, I'm sure the numbers within the state have reached around 20000 or so at the least & since Ron Paul supporters always tend to be the most driven, we shouldn't be having trouble in convincing them to come, especially since the campaign will take care of the expenses.

You make some sense here; there's a lot of truth in a second or third place for Ron Paul being downplayed more than it would be for another "long shot" candidate like Herman Cain. I do agree with that.

However, I think a win would be hard to downplay. It couldn't be, at least not in Iowa. The people there would notice.

Now that we have a grasp of the numbers needed to win Ames or do very well, is the campaign actively working towards such a target? Or are they simply trying to amass as many people as possible without any goal-oriented strategy?

We may never know, because it would be foolish of the campaign to say "Hey, grassroots! We have 3,000 people signed up, woohoo!" or something like that. However, I hope and pray that Steve Bierfeldt, and the others who are running Ron's campaign in Iowa, notice this thread and see that the grassroots is puttinhg real stock in our performance at Ames.

 

[PastaRocket848]

i have to respectfully disagree that Ames matters, at all. straw polls don't elect people. hell mccain didnt win any in '08 if i'm not mistaken. romney won ames only to be beaten in the primary in iowa by huck. so, there is clearly no correlation to actual primaries.

and... of course... the media will just poo-poo a win if Ron does take it anyway. they've already started with SRLC, saying supporters are expected to flood ames as well. there is, quite simply, nothing we can do to make the media treat ron as a first-tier candidate. it's simply not something they are going to be willing to do. if he wins iowa and NH, theyll be on the air monday morning with 1,000 reasons that early states no longer matter.

the fact of the matter is if ron is going to win it's because people got out early and often, knocked on doors, and spread the message. bypass the media entirely. not because of any straw poll.

gov. perry had a good point at srlc talking about the left when he argued that "they're never going to like us, so why do we keep trying to curry favor with them?". the same could be applied to this campaign and the media. they will never, ever help us in any way. to call ron mainstream would be to contradict 4-5 year of propaganda *they themselves have been spewing*. they don't have much credibility to waste these days...

 

[Agorism]

Winning at Ames will discredit other "grassroots" candidates like bachmann.

Someone has to be the anti-establishment, and we would rather it be us.

 

[1836]

A Few Ideas on Goal-Oriented Strategy

We all know that the campaign has to do well at Ames in order for us to have a good showing in Iowa. We know what numbers it will take to do that, per the breakdown at the top of this thread.

Now, I am hopeful that someone in the campaign in Iowa is keeping a few things in mind...

Having people signed up for a ticket and bus ride does not mean that they will attend. County coordinators need to be in contact with these individuals on a relatively frequent basis, becoming more frequent and more personal as the straw poll approaches. Let's say there are 150 people signed up in Jefferson County (where Ron Paul actually won the caucus last time, with something like 300 votes). Is the campaign going to actively keep in touch with these people, beyond just sending out e-mail reminders and a direct mailer or two as the straw poll approaches?

To that end, personal contact is a must. The campaign needs to have door to door, personal interaction with as many of the potential straw poll participants as possible. From my own experience, I can testify that nothing affects someone's participation in the political process more than a personal face-to-face interaction. Outside of Des Moines and a few other counties, there is no reason why county coordinators for the campaign should not be able to personally check in with potential straw poll participants, at least once but preferably several times before the straw poll itself.

Organized local events might help in galvanizing participation before the straw poll. The campaign would be wise to consider holding small local summer barbeque type events the weekend before the Straw Poll and personally inviting people to come out to rehash with them, in a group and individual fashion, what needs to be done for them to be able to get on a bus and participate in the straw poll. This could even be done by the grassroots, if the campaign is unable or unwilling to do so. However, the concept would be giving people as many opportunities to learn what is going on and how they can participate.

Strongly encourage, via personal interaction with possible participants, that they bring along family members and close friends who are able to vote in the poll. Perhaps there would even be a way to "provide an incentive" to these "opportunity voters," though I am not sure what is and isn't allowed by the Ames Straw Poll organizers.

Finally, I think the campaign is going to do this (doing it already actually) but:
Keep the opportunity for participation as open as possible to people who may not be identified as supporters. In other words, if a few people show up at the last minute to participate, do not turn them away, and make sure that a system is in place to sign people up quickly to participate.

I also have a question for someone who may or may not know: Is there a reason why the campaign is only offering discounted tickets, as opposed to paying for the entire cost of the ticket? For a very marginal case of a possible participant, any extra amount of money might be a deterrent. If it would be allowed for the grassroots to pay for people's tickets but not the campaign, then perhaps we should get on that. But unless it is not allowed by the poll organizers, I cannot see a reason why we shouldn't pay for everyone's ticket who wants to go in full.

 

[PastaRocket848]

i don't think bachmann is going to be a considerable threat. she can't stand up to ANY type of scrutiny. she just had an encyclopedia of crazy floating around on the internet that can be attributed to her. and shes a chickenhawk. i just can't wait to sit back and watch her implode as cnn play youtube video after youtube video of her being nuttier than squirrel turds.

 

[1836]

i have to respectfully disagree that Ames matters, at all. straw polls don't elect people. hell mccain didnt win any in '08 if i'm not mistaken. romney won ames only to be beaten in the primary in iowa by huck. so, there is clearly no correlation to actual primaries.

and... of course... the media will just poo-poo a win if Ron does take it anyway. they've already started with SRLC, saying supporters are expected to flood ames as well. there is, quite simply, nothing we can do to make the media treat ron as a first-tier candidate. it's simply not something they are going to be willing to do. if he wins iowa and NH, theyll be on the air monday morning with 1,000 reasons that early states no longer matter.

the fact of the matter is if ron is going to win it's because people got out early and often, knocked on doors, and spread the message. bypass the media entirely. not because of any straw poll.

gov. perry had a good point at srlc talking about the left when he argued that "they're never going to like us, so why do we keep trying to curry favor with them?". the same could be applied to this campaign and the media. they will never, ever help us in any way. to call ron mainstream would be to contradict 4-5 year of propaganda *they themselves have been spewing*. they don't have much credibility to waste these days...

I have to disagree completely with you. Straw polls mostly don't matter and we saw that in 2007-2008. But the Ames Straw Poll matters.

Its credibility is derived, not from its own existence, but from the fact that most of the other candidates in the race, as well as the Iowa Republican Party, and Iowa Republicans take it very seriously as a test of organizational strength.

On top of that, anyone who participates in the straw poll can potentially be mobilized to activate other supporters to go caucus, while almost certainly being caucus participants themselves. Ames finds our base and allows us to solidify it, and even if there were no other advantages, this is a significant step for the campaign to make in Iowa if they are serious about winning or placing highly in the caucus.

Remember, Ron Paul will do best in states with a caucus, and not a primary process, because of the enthusiasm of our supporters. We have to keep this in mind and do everything we can to take advantage of the fact that the first state in the nomination process is a caucus state, where our organization can do us well even if we do not have the biggest number of actual supporters.

 

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

i have to respectfully disagree that Ames matters, at all. straw polls don't elect people.

The Ames Straw Poll will change minds about Ron Paul and his chances.

and... of course... the media will just poo-poo a win if Ron does take it anyway. they've already started with SRLC, saying supporters are expected to flood ames as well. there is, quite simply, nothing we can do to make the media treat ron as a first-tier candidate. it's simply not something they are going to be willing to do. if he wins iowa and NH, theyll be on the air monday morning with 1,000 reasons that early states no longer matter.

The media will do what they're going to do (at their own peril), but they can't snow everybody.