Ames Straw Poll By the Numbers (Or, How Many People Does Ron Paul Need to Win?)

[PastaRocket848]

i see both of your points very clearly, and you both make good ones. ron could very well receive a "bump" and some kind media coverage from a win at ames. i certainly hope that it happens, and if i could be there i definitely would go. i just don't think that it will have the effect we are hoping for, and argue the point that the energy is better spent going directly to the people, door to door, one on one. i don't mean, in any way, to suggest that people shouldn't go to ames or that losing would somehow be better than winning. that's not the point.

i think mittens played it smart when he decided to pull out of the straw polls this year. he, being the presumed front-runner, has basically made the whole issue dismissible by publicly not trying at all. i think it will be downplayed, or at least that the media has the door open to do so.

 

[1836]

i think mittens played it smart when he decided to pull out of the straw polls this year. he, being the presumed front-runner, has basically made the whole issue dismissible by publicly not trying at all. i think it will be downplayed, or at least that the media has the door open to do so.

It was a smart move by Mitt. He learned from 2007 that to try and win both Iowa and New Hampshire could mean losing both, so he is going to focus on New Hampshire. But it doesn't diminish the straw poll.

 

[1836]

The news regarding the tent location at Ames surely means the campaign is taking all this very seriously. Good. They should.

 

[Paul Or Nothing II]

I have to disagree completely with you. Straw polls mostly don't matter and we saw that in 2007-2008. But the Ames Straw Poll matters.

Its credibility is derived, not from its own existence, but from the fact that most of the other candidates in the race, as well as the Iowa Republican Party, and Iowa Republicans take it very seriously as a test of organizational strength.

I'd disagree. They used to give SOME importance to other straw-polls BEFORE Ron started winning them & I believe the same will happen if Ron wins Iowa ie they'll find reasons to tell people that it's not that important & people will likely believe it. That is not to say that it won't matter to Iowans but it won't be making as big a national splash as some here are expecting in that they think it'll cause Ron's numbers to soar all of a sudden, that's unlikely to happen other than a little "bump" may be & I'd love to be proven wrong on this after we win it but too many people here have unrealistically high expectations from an Iowa win & they're setting themselves up for a big disappointment.

Again, this is not to say that we shouldn't win it but exactly the opposite ie if we consider that an Iowa win mightn't do to Ron what it may do to others or has done in the past then that makes it EVEN MORE critical that we WIN it & do it by a margin because this'll probably our last big splash & we must get maximum out of it.

However, I hope and pray that Steve Bierfeldt, and the others who are running Ron's campaign in Iowa, notice this thread and see that the grassroots is puttinhg real stock in our performance at Ames.

I think your first post is very good & so is one of your latest posts on strategy, so some of the ideas in this thread may be really helpful to the campaign; so I seriously think that someone would email this thread to the campaign's heads.

 

[The Dark Knight]

I can tell you that the Iowa Campaign is going all out to win at Ames, that is by far their number one priority right now. They have staff members going out to different counties each night and holding phone banking events with supporters to invite them to the Ames Straw poll. Also each night at the campaign office, volunteers come in and make calls to Iowa Ron Paul supporters. compared to 4 years ago, the campaign is light years ahead. Iowa Campaign also just secured the best Tent location for the straw poll.

 

[tmg19103]

I agree the media will ignore anything but RP finishing #1, and even then they will downplay it.

To me, the key to a 1st or 2nd in Ames is awakening the grassroots and fence sitters.

I think a lot of RP supporters from last election just are not amped up yet.

1st or 2nd in Ames will get media exposure, but more importantly it will awaken and grow the grassroots.

1st or 2nd in Ames gets RP $15-20 million in donations next quarter.

That's why it needs to be all out - and I don't mind if the campaign spends $2 million to make it happen because the money will pour in after. Dormant grassroots and fence sitters will awaken by realizing RP has a chance with an Ames win and the rEVOlution will take off from where it left off last election.

 

[SteveBierfeldt]

I'd disagree. They used to give SOME importance to other straw-polls BEFORE Ron started winning them & I believe the same will happen if Ron wins Iowa ie they'll find reasons to tell people that it's not that important & people will likely believe it. That is not to say that it won't matter to Iowans but it won't be making as big a national splash as some here are expecting in that they think it'll cause Ron's numbers to soar all of a sudden, that's unlikely to happen other than a little "bump" may be & I'd love to be proven wrong on this after we win it but too many people here have unrealistically high expectations from an Iowa win & they're setting themselves up for a big disappointment.

Again, this is not to say that we shouldn't win it but exactly the opposite ie if we consider that an Iowa win mightn't do to Ron what it may do to others or has done in the past then that makes it EVEN MORE critical that we WIN it & do it by a margin because this'll probably our last big splash & we must get maximum out of it.



I think your first post is very good & so is one of your latest posts on strategy, so some of the ideas in this thread may be really helpful to the campaign; so I seriously think that someone would email this thread to the campaign's heads.

We do read your threads/posts. Much of your analysis is spot on.

 

[1836]

We do read your threads/posts. Much of your analysis is spot on.

Steve,

I cannot tell you how much this means to me. The only reason I post this stuff, and I know others as well, is to have some influence (hopefully) on the campaign and the grassroots.

Count on more posts from me, at least, regarding some more detailed thoughts on our campaign. I do appreciate that you read them and hope my paltry thoughts can be of some worth.

Also: thank you. You are doing good work. Thank you for your commitment to liberty.