Ames Straw Poll By the Numbers (Or, How Many People Does Ron Paul Need to Win?)

[1836]

Introduction
This is a breakdown of Iowa voter participation in the Ames Straw Poll, and what the grassroots and the campaign needs to achieve in order to actually pull of a good finish at the straw poll. I have put it together as a guide so that we can have an idea of what we need to achieve; perhaps it can serve as a reference for some activities in Iowa.

I will update this thread as new ideas and information come forward.

Turnout at the Straw Poll, and Factors Affecting It
In 2007, turnout at the Ames Straw Poll was the second-highest on record. The highest turnout was actually in 1999. Remember, it is only held in years when there is not an incumbent Republican president (i.e., when the nomination is yet undecided).

1999 turnout was 23,685 voters, the highest ever.
2007 turnout was 14,302 voters, second highest.

2007 Ames Straw Poll Votes and Vote Share:
Place Candidate Votes Pct.
1 Mitt Romney 4,516 31.6%
2 Mike Huckabee 2,587 18.1%
3 Sam Brownback 2,192 15.3%
4 Tom Tancredo 1,961 13.7%
5 Ron Paul 1,305 9.1%
6 Tommy Thompson1,039 7.3%
7 Fred Thompson 203 1.4%
8 Rudy Giuliani 183 1.3%
9 Duncan Hunter 174 1.2%
10 John McCain 101 0.7%
11 John H. Cox 41 0.3%

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has announced that he will not participate in the Ames Straw Poll:

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Aides to GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney said he won't compete in the Iowa Republican Straw Poll in August.
Gearing up for the straw poll would divert time and money from a 2012 Romney campaign aimed at presenting the former Massachusetts governor as a national candidate who does not need the lift from winning the event, aides said.
Romney is also not participating in the Florida straw poll set for September, or any other of the non-binding contests in early voting states.
Romney said he plans to campaign in Iowa and will participate in the debate in Iowa sponsored by Fox News two days before the Aug. 13 straw poll in Ames.

What will happen as a result of this? Likely, a few specific factors now come into play that actually favor Ron Paul doing well in the Ames Straw Poll:

1. Without Mitt Romney, turnout will likely remain stagnant or even decrease from 2008. This means we will need fewer supporters than we otherwise would to do well in the straw poll.

2. The Ames Straw Poll is all about ground game, and there are really only two candidates that seem to have it in Iowa right now: Rick Santorum and Tim Pawlenty. Neither of them generates much enthusiasm, but will be focusing heavily on the straw poll as a way to legitimize their campaigns and emerge as strong challengers to Mitt Romney. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has declared that he will skip Iowa entirely.

3. The other big Ames participants right now would look to be Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain. While both will undoubtedly have strong enthusiasm ginned up in Iowa, it is unlikely that either will have the sheer ground game it takes to win the Ames Straw Poll, or to even place in the top two or three. Cain simply doesn't have the money nor the organization, and Bachmann would have to pull off an organizing miracle to get her campaign together that quickly. Possible for Bachmann, not Cain.

4. Fewer serious straw poll contenders is a positive for us, because as with Romney not participating, it will reduce turnout. It is also worthwhile to note that several of the candidates (Pawlenty and Santorum in particular) will be drawing from similar bases of support.

5. Despite the fact that Romney is not participating, and that turnout will probably not exceed 2007, there is no reason to believe that the media will not cover the Straw Poll victor and runner-up as much as they did in 2007. In fact, Mike Huckabee's second place finish at the 2007 Straw Poll was, while not quite "victorious," what gave him the credibility he needed to compete strongly in Iowa. The media covered it greatly:

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had said his campaign's future depended on a strong showing in Ames. He finished in second place, with 2,587 votes or 18.1%. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas placed third with 2,192 votes, 15.3% after campaigning aggressively to be the choice of the Iowa GOP's influential social conservatives.

"Obviously this was an incredible day and victory for us," Huckabee said. "What happened for us today was stunning."

Huckabee said he and his campaign staff had been saying they had momentum and it proved true.

From USA Today, 8/13/2007

What Do We Need to Win?
So what do we need to win? To place 2nd? History is a great guide here.

We've seen 2007's numbers, but for our purposes let's add in 1999's numbers and compare:

1999 Ames Straw Poll (total votes 23,685) 2007 Ames Straw Poll (total votes 14,302)
1 George W. Bush 7,418 31.3% 1 Mitt Romney 4,516 31.6%
2 Steve Forbes 4,921 20.8% 2 Mike Huckabee 2,587 18.1%
3 Elizabeth Dole 3,410 14.4% 3 Sam Brownback 2,192 15.3%
4 Gary Bauer 2,114 8.9% 4 Tom Tancredo 1,961 13.7%
5 Patrick Buchanan 1,719 7.3% 5 Ron Paul 1,305 9.1%


As you can see, these two most-attended straw polls have a pretty consistent theme as far as voter turnout is concerned. First place needs to achieve a mark of around 30%, second place needs to get to around 20%, and third place should shoot for 15%. Beyond that, the numbers begin to matter less and less. The remaining 35 percent of the vote will get split up among plenty of contenders and nobody notices beyond third place, anyway. Actually, in both 1999 and 2007, Elizabeth Dole and Sam Brownback's finishes were relatively unimportant to the media. Both candidates pulled out of the primary before the caucuses were even held.

Given all the factors at play, it is reasonable for our purposes that we assume that about the same number of people will attend as in 2007. However, since we are looking to really ensure a victory if at all possible, let's first go off a slightly higher number and assume 15,000 participants in 2011's Ames Straw Poll.

Going off of our 15,000 vote estimate, here is what we need:

To finish first we would need 4,500 votes
To finish second we would need 3,000 votes

What if more people participate? It's possible, given the mood in the country and the average Republican's anger with Barack Obama, that there could be a surge of participation. Again, Romney's absence depresses turnout, so we can safely assume less than in 1999. Let's assume for the second model 20,000 participants in 2011's Ames Straw Poll.

Now,
To finish first we would need 6,000 votes
To finish second we would need 4,000 votes

Finally, just as a point of reference, what if turnout was higher than ever due to the enthusiasm of the electorate in finding a Republican alternative to Obama? It would be highly unlikely, but why not keep it in the back of our minds? Let's assume 25,000 participants in 2011's Ames Straw Poll.

Now,
To finish first we would need 7,500 votes
To finish second we would need 5,000 votes

Since prediction is an inexact science, we of course have no idea how many voters there will actually be. However, given all of what has been looked at here, it is reasonable to assume that if we are able to turn out 4,000 to 5,000 votes for Ron Paul, he will surely finish in the top two in the straw poll and, possibly, win it outright. Using this amount, even if turnout exceeds the record 1999 high, we could still come in third place with 4000 voters if third place gets 15% as history has shown to be the case (which would be 3,750 votes).

We should shoot for getting 4,000 to 5,000 votes in the Ames Straw Poll.

Where Might These Votes Come From?

Of course, it would be great if we could just wave a magic wand and have five thousand people show up to the straw poll for our guy. But it doesn't work that way! So we have to figure out how we are actually going to get the votes to achieve that 4-5 thousand mark?

I will not purport to offer any strategies on how to actually get these votes. That is up to the campaign and the grassroots. However, here are some numbers that we need to keep in mind and consider:

Campaign For Liberty Iowa Membership
According to the Campaign For Liberty, there are 2529 members in the state of Iowa, including 837 who have online user accounts and 92 local coordinators.

2008 Ron Paul Caucus Voters
Source for all 2008 caucus results.
In 2008, 11,841 Iowa voters caucused for Ron Paul.

Of course, it makes sense that voters who live close to Ames, Iowa are more likely to participate in the Straw Poll. So how many Ron paul voters were there in Story County (where Ames is) and the surrounding counties in Iowa?

Story County (where Ames, Iowa is): 561 Ron Paul voters
Polk County (south, where Des Moines is): 2,007 Ron Paul voters
Boone County (to the west): 149 Ron Paul voters
Hamilton County (north): 66 Ron Paul voters
Hardin County (north): 46 Ron Paul voters
Marshall County (east): 110 Ron Paul voters
Jasper County (south): 113 Ron paul voters

Adding it up, the counties in the immediate vicinity of Ames (Story and all touching counties) totaled 3,052 Ron paul voters in 2008.

Ron Paul Donors in Iowa
A clever supporter posted a formula for guesstimating the number of donors in a given state in early 2008 on the Daily Paul. He came up with a figure of around 1600 donors in 2007-2008 who lived in Iowa. This is by taking 673 database-captured Iowa donors up to the point of that article and multiplying it by 2.36, based on total unique donors divided by captured donors in the ronpaulgraphs.com database.


In Conclusion
It is not unreasonable to think that we can win the Ames Straw Poll. But it is going to take a mobilization of support that is almost unheard of for a candidate that doesn't have as many supporters as others do in Iowa. That does not mean it is impossible, and it does not mean we should not do everything we can to win.

If we are able to mobilize many of those who are more involved as Ron Paul supporters (say, a couple thousand who have signed up for C4L and donated) as well as other supporters who might simply have been Ron Paul voters in 2008's caucus, it is well within the realm of possibility that we can do very well.

Best of luck to our friends in Iowa! I hope that those of us outside of the state can be of great assistance.

 

[Thomas]

+rep

Your analysis makes sense to me. Though I wonder if turnout will be higher because of how many candidates there are, the emergence of the Tea Party, and anger over Obama. Regardless, the best thing outsiders can do is fund these Iowa Projects. http://iowaforronpaul.com/projects.php

 

[randomname]

I reckon turnout could be higher than 1999 as well

Pawlenty and Bachmann are the ones to beat, possibly Romney but Cain we will beat easily

 

[Pheonix]

Brilliant analysis, I really applaud the time and effort you put into it. Though I do think Bachmann will play a more significant role than Santorum.

The folks at rp2012.org are suggesting that we make 1 million phone calls through their website platform to secure Dr. Paul's victory at the straw poll. I believe the rate at which Ron Paul supporters are identified by phone is around 0.8%, meaning 1 million phone calls would secure for us enough votes to garner a first or second place showing. However, making 1 million phone calls will require significant effort on our part.

 

[Thomas]

The more time passes, the more it seems the grassroots will have to use RP2012.org to make calls. However, if the campaign is calling Iowans en masse for the straw poll we don't want to be calling the same people. That can really annoy people and hurt us more than help. This happened last time I think.

 

[1836]

Thank you for the kind comments. I would tend to agree that Bachmann will do better than Santorum, but Bachmann's enthusiasm is going to be more grassroots, and not as campaign organization oriented. Two months may not enough time for her to build up enough of an Iowa organization to compete on that level with at least Pawlenty, and perhaps not Santorum. By the caucuses, I would expect Bachmann to have an Iowa campaign that would best everyone else but Pawlenty.

Pawlenty's organization is the best in Iowa, bar none. Bachmann is a wild card and we will have to see what she does in the scope of two months.

I like the ronpaul2012.org idea, but we also should focus plenty of effort in getting already-known Ron Paul supporters to the straw poll; after all, we do have enough supporters in the state to achieve the numbers I came up with. I intend to put some time in at ronpaul2012.org, and hope and pray that the campaign will be able to put the information to good use in driving straw poll and later, caucus turnout.

 

[Esoteric]

The more time passes, the more it seems the grassroots will have to use RP2012.org to make calls. However, if the campaign is calling Iowans en masse for the straw poll we don't want to be calling the same people. That can really annoy people and hurt us more than help. This happened last time I think.

RP2012.org is focusing on independents and democrats, who CAN vote in the straw poll. I doubt the campaign is calling these people.

 

[Thomas]

RP2012.org is focusing on independents and democrats, who CAN vote in the straw poll. I doubt the campaign is calling these people.

Where did you find that out?

 

[Pheonix]

I agree with you on Bachmann. She may have the organizational strength to perform well in the caucuses, but 2 months may not be enough time to go into the straw poll strong. However, she does have a strong place in the state/national polls, meaning it'll be a much easier job finding her supporters through phone calls as compared to our campaign, where we only run into RP supporters less than 1% of the time. Than again, we also had a campaign running in 08, meaning we also have access to more databases for supporters.

I like your point about finding already-known supporters. Given that C4L has tried to distance itself from the official RP campaign, do you know if we can tap into that database of Iowan members? I'm sure HQ already has already tried it, since some of the campaign directors had board positions with C4L.

Aside from C4L, do you know of anywhere else that the grassroots can tap into? The other options you mentioned seem restricted to the HQ's capabilities (e.g., finding the list of 2008 donors). In such a case, I would think that the only other way we can help is through rp2012.org's phone banking.

 

[1836]

The problem is that there are only so many places to find a list of committed Iowan Ron Paul supporters. I just put a few that seemed fairly obvious to me; however, I suppose someone who is creative could figure out a way to find lists of Iowans for Ron Paul on the various Paul websites, and other places.

The real issue with that, though, is that there is going to be significant overlap among the various lists of Ron Paul supporters. You probably won't find, for example, that there are many "unique" users among each of the websites, the donor list, and the C4L membership in Iowa. Because Paul supporters are so enthusastic, you expect a large number of them to have been involved/be involved more heavily than your average candidate supporter. Therefore, they are going to appear on a lot of these lists, and the more lists you find, the more overlap there will be. So you can look for more, but you won't grow your totals much.

We can make a very likely educated guess that there are many more but for right now, based on hard fact, all we really know for sure is that there are around 11,000 Ron Paul supporters in Iowa because of the caucus turnout. Of those 2008 supporters (and really, dealing with a smaller list of identified supporters), I think it would be astounding for the us to be able to turn out 2000 to the straw poll, or close to twice what we did last time out of those people. But it is possible.

The real variable is going to be how much our support has grown these past few years, and will that be enough to make up the difference to actually place in the top two in the straw poll? I won't speculate now on the best ways to do that. Maybe rp2012.org is a great way to do it, maybe there are other ways too.

But as I see it, you start with a core base of supporters that actually exist, and build from there. That way, we're not in fantasy land and know where we stand, and how far we have to go. That is an advantage that no other candidate this year has, since Romney and his lists from '08 are skipping the straw poll. Everyone else is basically flying blind, working off standard lists. That is a huge advantage for us if we utilize it.

 

[randolphfuller]

Just heard a political pundit on television say that Ames was a must win for Paul, Pawlenty, and Bachmann. Can this be true? If Ron wins at Ames are Pawlenty and Bachmann really through or severely crippled?

 

[Paul Or Nothing II]

+1

Well, if there were nearly 12000 of us in Iowa in 2008 then let's say each one of them converted at least 1 person on average then even by this conservative estimate, we'd've about 20000-25000 of us there, even if we can get 1/3 of them to come then we'll win by a landslide. Ron Paul supporters tend to be very enthusiastic & always want to participate so I hope even the people who're NOT close to Ames will also come, even if it means a bit of travel, & help to put Ron in the national limelight by winning this thing.

 

[BUSHLIED]

+rep

Your analysis makes sense to me. Though I wonder if turnout will be higher because of how many candidates there are, the emergence of the Tea Party, and anger over Obama. Regardless, the best thing outsiders can do is fund these Iowa Projects. http://iowaforronpaul.com/projects.php

Well judging by these numbers, we haven't raise anything for this effort...? Which is odd, cause we just raised 1.1 million for Ron...

 

[BUSHLIED]

Iowa is all about "organizational management" aka "ground game." You have to have a large staff and updated data to make the calls and go door to door. Volunteers are great BUT you must have paid staff to do this...they should get paid a commission for each person that buys a ticket and verbally agrees to vote for Ron Paul at the poll. Just like with ballot access, you must pay people to get signatures and get it done. Don't get me wrong, the grassroots is great BUT you need people who are working on this hard and have an incentive to remain relentless.

Furthermore, transportation is critical and it says they are offering it BUT I don't see "busing" as one of the options in the Projects page, that is something I would support...what about T-shirts "Iowains for Ron Paul." I don't see that, although they say they will be giving RP merchandise.

Anyone in Iowa volunteer at the HQ yet? Feedback please? Pics?

 

[Pheonix]

Furthermore, transportation is critical and it says they are offering it BUT I don't see "busing" as one of the options in the Projects page, that is something I would support...what about T-shirts "Iowains for Ron Paul." I don't see that, although they say they will be giving RP merchandise.

Anyone in Iowa volunteer at the HQ yet? Feedback please? Pics?

From iowaforronpaul.com, looks pretty good:

A GREAT EVENT

Your package to join Ron Paul 2012 at the Ames Straw Poll is only $10 before July 4 and includes EVERYTHING listed below

* A full ticket to the event INCLUDING the ability to vote for Ron Paul in the Presidential Straw Poll!
* Food, drinks, literature, music and games at the Ron Paul 2012 tent!
* Bus transportation with your fellow Ron Paul supporters directly from your county the morning of the Ames Straw Poll and back again to your county that evening.
* Official Ron Paul 2012 Campaign Merchandise

 

[RonPaul101.com]

Just heard a political pundit on television say that Ames was a must win for Paul, Pawlenty, and Bachmann. Can this be true? If Ron wins at Ames are Pawlenty and Bachmann really through or severely crippled?

I would agree that its a must win for Pawlenty, since if he can't win there, he can't do well anywhere in this country. Bachmann's tardiness may be a Romney-like excuse for not needing a win; so its not a must win for her in my opinion. I think as long as Ron Paul is first or second, he's fine. I will be worried if he's third, and I'll be very worried if its worse than 3rd.

We need a great Ready Ames Fire Money Bomb Day.

 

[1836]

+1

Well, if there were nearly 12000 of us in Iowa in 2008 then let's say each one of them converted at least 1 person on average then even by this conservative estimate, we'd've about 20000-25000 of us there, even if we can get 1/3 of them to come then we'll win by a landslide. Ron Paul supporters tend to be very enthusiastic & always want to participate so I hope even the people who're NOT close to Ames will also come, even if it means a bit of travel, & help to put Ron in the national limelight by winning this thing.

We cannot assume, however, that all those who caucused for Ron Paul are necessarily ultlra-enthusiastic supporters. On the contrary, only a fraction might be.

 

[Brandon Todd Carr]

I hope everyone is doing their part. rp2012.org is a great site. Get to calling if you haven't.

 

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Great analysis.

2008 Ron Paul Caucus Voters
In 2008, 11,841 Iowa voters caucused for Ron Paul.

I think we'll need at least 5,000 votes to do well. So we need to get half or more of these people to come out again for Ron Paul.

 

[parocks]

And the Iowa campaign has told us not to do that.

Brilliant analysis, I really applaud the time and effort you put into it. Though I do think Bachmann will play a more significant role than Santorum.

The folks at rp2012.org are suggesting that we make 1 million phone calls through their website platform to secure Dr. Paul's victory at the straw poll. I believe the rate at which Ron Paul supporters are identified by phone is around 0.8%, meaning 1 million phone calls would secure for us enough votes to garner a first or second place showing. However, making 1 million phone calls will require significant effort on our part.