According to the New Yorker, Romney will get 1,122 delegates

[AngelClark]

That's not the 1,144 needed but there will still be the unbound delegates to account for. Also this is only if Gingrich and Santorum stay in the race. Looks like if we step it up a tiny bit, we'll have that brokered convention! If we have that brokered convention then WE GOT THIS!

http://exm.nr/H94XM4

 

[LarMan]

Their model gave Romney 6 more delegates last night than he actually got.

Unfortunately for Ron Paul...that is the end of the good news regarding this.

Seriously...now try to look at this from a basis of REALITY for a second...if you can. You really think that out of the almost 600...SIX HUNDRED....unbound delegates that Romney is going to get less than 22? This includes super delegates which are establishment GOP. He will get WAY more than half of those.

Also...are you so naive to think that if by some miracle (it is an insult to miracle to even call a zero percent chance of happening a miracle) he DOES get, say, only 10 unbound delegates and ends up with 1132 that there wouldn't be deals made BEFORE the first vote?

The brokered convention talk needs to come to an end. It may have been a nice fantasy for awhile, but it is done. It is not happening. One way or another (Romney reaching it outright...which is almost a certainty, or deals made before) there will NOT be a second vote.


I don't get why you pointed out HERE that there are plenty of unbound delegates but not in your article itself.

 

[FordGTGuy]

Their model gave Romney 6 more delegates last night than he actually got.

Unfortunately for Ron Paul...that is the end of the good news regarding this.

Seriously...now try to look at this from a basis of REALITY for a second...if you can. You really think that out of the almost 600...SIX HUNDRED....unbound delegates that Romney is going to get less than 22? This includes super delegates which are establishment GOP. He will get WAY more than half of those.

Also...are you so naive to think that if by some miracle (it is an insult to miracle to even call a zero percent chance of happening a miracle) he DOES get, say, only 10 unbound delegates and ends up with 1132 that there wouldn't be deals made BEFORE the first vote?

The brokered convention talk needs to come to an end. It may have been a nice fantasy for awhile, but it is done. It is not happening. One way or another (Romney reaching it outright...which is almost a certainty, or deals made before) there will NOT be a second vote.


I don't get why you pointed out HERE that there are plenty of unbound delegates but not in your article itself.

Hey look a one post wonder...

 

[ShibbitySparks]

Their model gave Romney 6 more delegates last night than he actually got.

Unfortunately for Ron Paul...that is the end of the good news regarding this.

Seriously...now try to look at this from a basis of REALITY for a second...if you can. You really think that out of the almost 600...SIX HUNDRED....unbound delegates that Romney is going to get less than 22? This includes super delegates which are establishment GOP. He will get WAY more than half of those.

Also...are you so naive to think that if by some miracle (it is an insult to miracle to even call a zero percent chance of happening a miracle) he DOES get, say, only 10 unbound delegates and ends up with 1132 that there wouldn't be deals made BEFORE the first vote?

The brokered convention talk needs to come to an end. It may have been a nice fantasy for awhile, but it is done. It is not happening. One way or another (Romney reaching it outright...which is almost a certainty, or deals made before) there will NOT be a second vote.


I don't get why you pointed out HERE that there are plenty of unbound delegates but not in your article itself.

If you wanted credibility on a grassroots forum, perhaps your first post should have been more...I dunno...supportive or helpful in at least some miniscule way.

 

[bronxboy10]

Their model gave Romney 6 more delegates last night than he actually got.

Unfortunately for Ron Paul...that is the end of the good news regarding this.

Seriously...now try to look at this from a basis of REALITY for a second...if you can. You really think that out of the almost 600...SIX HUNDRED....unbound delegates that Romney is going to get less than 22? This includes super delegates which are establishment GOP. He will get WAY more than half of those.

Also...are you so naive to think that if by some miracle (it is an insult to miracle to even call a zero percent chance of happening a miracle) he DOES get, say, only 10 unbound delegates and ends up with 1132 that there wouldn't be deals made BEFORE the first vote?

The brokered convention talk needs to come to an end. It may have been a nice fantasy for awhile, but it is done. It is not happening. One way or another (Romney reaching it outright...which is almost a certainty, or deals made before) there will NOT be a second vote.


I don't get why you pointed out HERE that there are plenty of unbound delegates but not in your article itself.

You assume all the delegates that are pledged to Romney will vote for Romney in the first round. What if they walk off the floor and Paul has a majority of the alternates in that state? Then guess what? Romney gets less delegates than he was allocated in that winner-take-all state, if any at all.

 

[thechitowncubs]

If you wanted credibility on a grassroots forum, perhaps your first post should have been more...I dunno...supportive or helpful in at least some miniscule way.

Welcome the newcomers Shibbity dibbity

 

[tuggy24g]

There are states like Florida that are bound to Romney only on the first round of voting. I can bet not all of those delegates are Romney supporters. There are states like that through out the country that could be more Ron Paul then we can imagine. We just have to keep the great grassroot movement going and we should do well.

 

[CTRattlesnake]

Their model gave Romney 6 more delegates last night than he actually got.

Unfortunately for Ron Paul...that is the end of the good news regarding this.

Seriously...now try to look at this from a basis of REALITY for a second...if you can. You really think that out of the almost 600...SIX HUNDRED....unbound delegates that Romney is going to get less than 22? This includes super delegates which are establishment GOP. He will get WAY more than half of those.

Also...are you so naive to think that if by some miracle (it is an insult to miracle to even call a zero percent chance of happening a miracle) he DOES get, say, only 10 unbound delegates and ends up with 1132 that there wouldn't be deals made BEFORE the first vote?

The brokered convention talk needs to come to an end. It may have been a nice fantasy for awhile, but it is done. It is not happening. One way or another (Romney reaching it outright...which is almost a certainty, or deals made before) there will NOT be a second vote.


I don't get why you pointed out HERE that there are plenty of unbound delegates but not in your article itself.

There are less than 200 unbound delegates left and only 80 superdelegates

You're point is valid, but your facts are off

 

[bronxboy10]

There are states like Florida that are bound to Romney only on the first round of voting. I can bet not all of those delegates are Romney supporters. There are states like that through out the country that could be more Ron Paul then we can imagine. We just have to keep the great grassroot movement going and we should do well.

Yeah. Now just for math purposes, lets say that Florida has 100 delegates and 100 alternate delegates going to the convention.

ALL these delegates are "pledged" to Mitt Romney during the first round of voting.

Let's say that Ron Paul supporters make up 125 of the 200 total delegates.

It looks like Mitt Romney is going to pass 1,144. What do the RP delegates from Florida do? Walk off the floor.

Result?

Romney only gets 75 delegates from Florida.

Rinse and repeat with other "winner take all" states.

 

[rpwi]

New Yorker is giving more delegates to Romney than they should...at least in Wisconsin. They have Romney winning 7 of 8 districts (3 national delegates a district). When you look at the map it appears Santorum won at least two and quite possibly 4 districts.

 

[Hendrik]

According to my model… Romney did a good job until now.

But - he won't make it. In my GOP Unbound forecast he is currently at 955 final. Romney won't make it !

 

[69360]

I agree Romney is going to come up short. Could Gingrich or Santorum cut a deal prior to the convention? Maybe, but they both have huge egos.

As far as walking off the floor, that does nothing, the RNC will just bring in your alternate to vote.

It's not over yet.

 

[PaulSoHard]

If Santorum and Gingrich combine to have 1144 they will probably cut a deal and send the GOP on their way.

If Romney and Paul combine for 1144 I still speculate Ron not accepting any position/offer nor will Romney offer a position. With Newt sucking up to Romney now I don't know what Mitt has in his head.

 

[ShibbitySparks]

Even if a deal is made before the convention, those bound delegates for Santorum or Gingrich could not be forced to vote for who their candidate endorsed. Instead, they would become unbound when Santy and Gingrich drop out. That's why we still need people being delegates in every state! Even if you are bound to Romney, we will likely have enough supporters in Tampa to deny him 1144 on the first vote. Then it's all up in the air. Not only can we still do this, but how was this not the plan all along?

 

[opinionatedfool]

That's not the 1,144 needed but there will still be the unbound delegates to account for. Also this is only if Gingrich and Santorum stay in the race. Looks like if we step it up a tiny bit, we'll have that brokered convention! If we have that brokered convention then WE GOT THIS!

http://exm.nr/H94XM4

Their delegate counts are a bunch of crap. The truth is no one will know until after the conventions.

 

[Tyler_Durden]

That's not the 1,144 needed but there will still be the unbound delegates to account for. Also this is only if Gingrich and Santorum stay in the race. Looks like if we step it up a tiny bit, we'll have that brokered convention! If we have that brokered convention then WE GOT THIS!

http://exm.nr/H94XM4

^^^I didn't realize you were on RPF!! I'm a fan of your Examiner articles!!!

Their model gave Romney 6 more delegates last night than he actually got.

Unfortunately for Ron Paul...that is the end of the good news regarding this.

Seriously...now try to look at this from a basis of REALITY for a second...if you can. You really think that out of the almost 600...SIX HUNDRED....unbound delegates that Romney is going to get less than 22? This includes super delegates which are establishment GOP. He will get WAY more than half of those.

Also...are you so naive to think that if by some miracle (it is an insult to miracle to even call a zero percent chance of happening a miracle) he DOES get, say, only 10 unbound delegates and ends up with 1132 that there wouldn't be deals made BEFORE the first vote?

The brokered convention talk needs to come to an end. It may have been a nice fantasy for awhile, but it is done. It is not happening. One way or another (Romney reaching it outright...which is almost a certainty, or deals made before) there will NOT be a second vote.


I don't get why you pointed out HERE that there are plenty of unbound delegates but not in your article itself.

^^SCOTUSman? Is that you? I'd swear it looks like you! How you been? Oh wait, Banned again. Pow!

 

[AngelClark]

^^^I didn't realize you were on RPF!! I'm a fan of your Examiner articles!!!

Thanks! I appreciate it! RPF really helps me get the news out. There are very few places we can get reliable news

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Couple of things:

1. Romney has won 58% of delegates thus far, and only needs something like 43% of the remaining delegates to clinch a majority. Why would things suddenly shift that dramatically away from him, when the upcoming schedule (northeast, California, Utah, etc.) favors him so much?

2. People are forgetting that there are still over 100 uncommitted super-delegates. They're not being counted yet because they haven't formally declared, but who doubts these establishment hacks will support Romney? That's a large, impending delegate boost that a lot of people seem to be forgetting when they're writing these 'can Romney reach 1,144?' stories.

 

[jcannon98188]

Nope these negative "We've already lost' types are right. Time to pack up and hand the nomination to Romney, we don't stand a chance. Besides, Romney deserves it. After all, he's mormon and rich! And a liberal!

</sarcasm>

Do not give up yet guys! There are major changes happening that will yet shift the balance! Washington State is going to go to Ron Paul, we are winning the delegate fight here. The same thing is happening everywhere! We have a real shot at winning this, no matter how slim it may be we have to fight for it!

 

[rpwi]

Actually hope Romney clinches as fast as possible...then Paul can start his third party candidacy earlier. The longer Paul waits the tougher it will be with the third party conventions going on and the ballot access deadlines expiring rapidly.

I don't think the math adds up for Paul at this point. We not counting super-delegates for Romney, nor unpledged, nor giving him much of a chance in many of these caucus states. Think he has this pretty easily, and we need to focus on 'phase 2' ASAP.