A few things:
Ron Paul has every reason NOT to run third party. Seriously, he's not only been there/done that, but if he were to make us happy and do so, HE WOULD NOT BE IN A SINGLE DEBATE.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates
Nonpartisan group that used to sponsor the debates said:
The League of Women Voters is withdrawing sponsorship of the presidential debates ... because the demands of the two campaign organizations would perpetrate a fraud on the American voter. It has become clear to us that the candidates' organizations aim to add debates to their list of campaign-trail charades devoid of substance, spontaneity and answers to tough questions. The League has no intention of becoming an accessory to the hoodwinking of the American public.
Like it or not, we would not raise Ron enough cash to make a big dent. We could possibly beat December 16th, but Ron would have to spend most of the money getting on ballots (disgusting) and wouldn't be able to buy his way into a debate. We all know that debates are where Ron does some heavy damage. If he was disallowed from debates, maybe we could run enough ads to pick up a few thousand votes in all the states. Maybe.
Remember, though, we've had people leave the fold for reasons of: racism smears, the campaign staff not pleasing people one way or another, lack of media announced victories, a sense of wasted effort in some, and general lack of true commitment from some (I posit the 'Obama's my 2nd choice' types as evidence).
Nader and Bloomberg will likely only run IF Ron does play the 3rd party card. If you don't think this election is scripted as I, that's fine, but I bet you anything Nadeberg would announce within a couple days of Ron if he chose to go through with it. Were that to happen, Ron would get zero mention, but Nader would be covered as 'a potential spoiler for Democrats' and Bloomberg would be 'the billionaire wildcard that cannot be ignored.' Ron? *cricket, cricket*
I am not one of those 'let's give up' people, but I am a 'let's factor reality into our strategy' person. One of the smartest things RP supporters can do right now is support this GOP run to its fullest potential, stay registered (in closed primary states) long enough to vote in Ron Paul Republicans, and ALWAYS spread the message whether there's an election or not. Live every day like you have to personally get Ron Paul's message understood by the world.