Mitt Romney isn't winning because he isn't trustworthy and people even the dumbest of the sheep can see right through him. He reminds me of a used car salesman. T.V. ads did wonders for mc puke and huckleberry. For the general population that do not want to follow politics until next august t.v. ads are vital to get the politicians message in their homes right into their face(there not going to turn off the t.v. because of a poitical ad to risk maybe missing a segment of csi or house ect. Not one person here cannot tell me that more t.v. ads wouldn't have help Ron because we all know they would have.
A few things:
I agree with you on the "used car salesman" assessment, but I believe the media/talking heads propping up McCain & Huck with extra coverage & discussion on their newscasts did much more to give them the edge, rather than the ads they ran. (I'm basing this mostly on my observations here in southern NH...YMMV.)
Moreover, what may have also made the difference for McCain in NH--and what helped him build momentum :
--reports of the surge working (based on the Petraeus report in September) ==> this helped McCain regain some credibility from the disastrous way he had been running his campaign in the late spring/summer, as well as the fallout from the amnesty vote.
--McCain spent
lots of time on the ground in NH, especially in the last few weeks before our primary. His campaign scheduled a tons of appearances (which were well-promoted in advance) throughout the state. This certainly gave him the edge over RP, as RP didn't "appear" to be doing as much retail-politicking here (and sadly, his appearances weren't always as well-publicized as they could have been), which is a must to gain votes here. This, coupled with fond memories of the McCain of 2000 (from what I gathered from folks), and the semblance he gives of "straight talk", helped put McCain over the top. While McCain's ads were effective (particularly the focus on his war record & footage of him as a POW), I don't think they sealed the deal; rather, his presence on the ground did + media- and govt-generated credibility did.
As for Huck, I see him more as the political equivalent of a "studio creation"; he was propped up & propelled, seemingly from nowhere (a bit like Obama a couple of years ago), and the MSM decided to go along with it. We didn't see so many ads from him in NH; he didn't have to, as he got a lot of free play and discussion about his ads because of the whole "cross controversy". Another thing to keep in mind is that much of the positive press he received occurred while he was paying for the press corps to travel with him. A lot of that "attention" dried up after SC when he had to cut back on expenses.
You make a valid point about people watching ads because they don't want to miss a segment of a program, although with the increasing use of recording devices (VCRs, Tivo, etc), people can now fast-forward through the "junk", so political ads probably have less importance / influence than they once did, unless one is predisposed to watching them (e.g. political junkies, supporters of a particular candidate, misplaced remote control).
My $ 0.02.
Cheers
