RP Supporter
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- Joined
- Jun 5, 2007
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- 472
I was just looking through the Wikipedia page on this race, and thought I'd share my (admittedly uneducated) thoughts on the polling. Some of you probably already know this, but I don't think it hurts to reiterate it. It helps to put the race in perspective.
According to Wikipedia, the last poll Conway led in was taken in late October- of last year. That's right, almost every poll of this race since then has shown Rand with a consistent lead. Out of 31 polls that offer a snapshot of this race, the first four show Conway leading. Two show the race as tied. And the other 25 show Paul leading in this race. The only poll to show Conway ahead since last October is his recent internal, which is rather dubious evidence, given the spate of outside polls that have contradicted it.
Even when news of the civil rights and aqua Buddha "controversies" hit, there is little evidence to suggest Jack Conway benefited from them. Taking every poll since after the primary into consideration(And excluding the outlier Rasmussen which gave Paul a 20 point lead right after his huge primary win) It can be seen that Paul has both a bigger floor and room to grow then Conway. Paul has polled from a high of 55 to a low of 44(In a poll taken right in the midst of the claims that he wanted to repeal the civil rights act) Conway by comparison, has polled from 47 to 38. Again, the only poll ever taken that has ever shown Jack above 47 was his recent internal.
I present this evidence not to suggest Rand Paul has this election in the bag. He does need to work hard and have a strong finish. But it is interesting and important to note that even with 5 months of smears on practically every front, Jack Conway still can't come closer then 5 to Rand Paul in the polls, and he can't crack 47 percent(Which is coincidently what McConnell's opponent received in 2008.)
Hope this makes everyone feel better about the state of things.
According to Wikipedia, the last poll Conway led in was taken in late October- of last year. That's right, almost every poll of this race since then has shown Rand with a consistent lead. Out of 31 polls that offer a snapshot of this race, the first four show Conway leading. Two show the race as tied. And the other 25 show Paul leading in this race. The only poll to show Conway ahead since last October is his recent internal, which is rather dubious evidence, given the spate of outside polls that have contradicted it.
Even when news of the civil rights and aqua Buddha "controversies" hit, there is little evidence to suggest Jack Conway benefited from them. Taking every poll since after the primary into consideration(And excluding the outlier Rasmussen which gave Paul a 20 point lead right after his huge primary win) It can be seen that Paul has both a bigger floor and room to grow then Conway. Paul has polled from a high of 55 to a low of 44(In a poll taken right in the midst of the claims that he wanted to repeal the civil rights act) Conway by comparison, has polled from 47 to 38. Again, the only poll ever taken that has ever shown Jack above 47 was his recent internal.
I present this evidence not to suggest Rand Paul has this election in the bag. He does need to work hard and have a strong finish. But it is interesting and important to note that even with 5 months of smears on practically every front, Jack Conway still can't come closer then 5 to Rand Paul in the polls, and he can't crack 47 percent(Which is coincidently what McConnell's opponent received in 2008.)
Hope this makes everyone feel better about the state of things.
