2016 Iowa Caucus Thread

[Peace&Freedom]

Nope, they weren't. And they didn't need to be, either. What we needed was their votes. But, here, on RPFs the purity squad is so busy running people out of here who don't walk lockstep with them, that they overlooked this crucial point. WE NEED VOTES and not only from the self-ordained purity squad.

The kingmaker elite and media got a partial victory by successfully muting Rand's candidacy, while firmly positioning Rubio as their best insider bet for winning the nomination. All of which shows how hard it is to defeat them. But they lost the #1 and #2 spots in IA to outsiders they absolutely did not choose. And all of their other establishment drones finished below Rand, meaning they should be finished, period. This is overall progress, as the elite hold over the primary racket has been loosened. As I quoted Chuck Baldwin today: "As far as politics are concerned, more than anything else in this world, it is imperative that the establishment elite in Washington, D.C., are dethroned."

Rand failed tonight because the tricks of that elite still work when used to marginalize liberty candidates, and because of the mistakes of the campaign previously discussed---alienating part of the original RP base due to compromises, not growing the base by truly courting religious conservatives, pro-outsider and Tea Party populists, or talking bluntly about the role of covert ops manipulating us into a constant pro-war mode, etc. That, combined with his decision to not create leverage for himself by running third party, did not give the rank and file a compelling reason to consider him, thus no pathway to placing high in IA.

I expect Rand to stay in through mid-March (past the KY caucus, and super-duper Tuesday), after which he should either suspend if he has not yet won any primary, or consider the third party option in time for the LP and CP conventions. Going to 2020, perhaps we need to find a well funded anti-establishment, super-conservative-libertarian who's not afraid to confront the kingmakers, bluntly talk against false flags and the war party, and is willing to run on a multi-party basis.

Say a Napolitano-Thiel or Alex Jones-Thiel candidacy, which would combine boldness with big money. This will be easier to do if Rubio or Jeb wins the election (and thus Rand sits out 2020), as it would force the movement to run against the incumbent Republican statist---or else shut up about being a movement that is mainly about liberty, instead of just GOP loyalty, with a liberty flavoring.

 

[ThePaleoLibertarian]

In the end, democracy will always let you down. Not that this wasn't predictable, though. Trump made a mistake ditching the last debate, and Rand's campaign hasn't resonated with its target audience. You can blame the plebe voters (and they deserve it), but Rand must also shoulder his share of the responsibility.

 

[invisible]

If Rand had 10,000 students and 35,000+ votes identified, then where the heck did all those votes go? WTF!

If Rand can also finish ahead of kasich, shrub, carson, and christy in NH, he's still very much so in the game (and it will probably knock those 3 out of the race very quickly). Especially if he can pull out a top 3 finish in NV and possibly even NH, or finish in NH ahead of anyone in the IA top 3.

Did anyone else see bill during clinton's little speech? He was blatantly leering over hillary's shoulder, checking out someone in the audience, mouthing words and kisses, and maintaining eye contact the entire time. chelsea noticed exactly what he was doing about halfway through, and kept giving him dirty looks and muttering under her breath.

 

[AngryCanadian]

In the end, democracy will always let you down. Not that this wasn't predictable, though. Trump made a mistake ditching the last debate, and Rand's campaign hasn't resonated with its target audience. You can blame the plebe voters (and they deserve it), but Rand must also shoulder his share of the responsibility.

The next debate Rand should be more like Trump.

 

[Thor]

I think two years ago, Trump told a confidant that he would play the media to subsidize his campaign. Trump knows what the MSM is drawn to, that being controversy and impure political thoughts. Rand should have punted the safe strategy and threw in some curveballs to garner attention.

I read the book "Trump" in the 80's... one of his thoughts... "Bad press is better than no press" He does not care, as long as his name is out there... "I could shoot people and still win." Trump gets his name out there, no matter what shit spews from his mouth hole.

 

[bronc_fan23]

The next debate Rand should be more like Trump.

If he makes it...

 

[Libertas Aut Mortis]

Hello all,

As you can easily tell, this is my first Post ever on Ron Paul Forums. I joined for two reasons. 1st - I've been lurking in the shadows for some time now, reading this forum; and it was time to get involved. 2nd - I feel as though my involvement could be beneficial to the community...or at least I hope it can be.

I've noticed that many of you have taken a very jaded and callous reaction to this 5th place. Are we in ideal positioning? No. Did we do as well as we anticipated? No. But is it over? Not by a long shot.

Trump has been proven vulnerable. Cruz fumbles under pressure. Carson is asleep. Our voice can still be heard!

Is it a tough road? Yes. Is there a good possibility of it ending just like in 08 and 12. Yeah. But dammit I would rather Die on my Feet than Live on my Knees!

I know you guys have this fire in your belly somewhere. It is time to find it. Time to dig deep. The Republic is in jeopardy, and it is the duty of True-Born Sons everywhere to preserve her. Now is the time to fight with the Constitution in one hand and the Bill of Rights in the other.


I hope to be speaking with you all in the coming days...and please, if I screw up or am doing anything wrong; point it out. The faster I can assimilate the better.

 

[thatpeculiarcat]

Iowa City 31st of January 2016: 1500 people show up for the Rand Paul rally.
Iowa City 1st of February 2016: 620 people show up to caucus for Rand Paul. (still a few precincts to go, but..)

It's the same at the other college towns as well. (although all the votes are not counted yet)

Why are not people showing up?

I hate the youth. Fuck the youth. They let us down every single time. Bernie, Carson, Rubio, Rand--hmmm, which do I pick?!

NEVER again should we base our ENTIRE STRATEGY on garnering youth support. It's a waste of time, and not that I agree with him on everything, but Liberty74 has been right about this for a long time.

 

[CPUd]

With updated results, delegate allocation:

Cruz 8
Trump 7
Rubio 7
Carson 3
Paul 1
Bush 1

This is 27/30, which is all they are allocating tonight because the other 3 are super delegates.

 

[fcreature]

Hello all,

As you can easily tell, this is my first Post ever on Ron Paul Forums. I joined for two reasons. 1st - I've been lurking in the shadows for some time now, reading this forum; and it was time to get involved. 2nd - I feel as though my involvement could be beneficial to the community...or at least I hope it can be.

I've noticed that many of you have taken a very jaded and callous reaction to this 5th place. Are we in ideal positioning? No. Did we do as well as we anticipated? No. But is it over? Not by a long shot.

Trump has been proven vulnerable. Cruz fumbles under pressure. Carson is asleep. Our voice can still be heard!

Is it a tough road? Yes. Is there a good possibility of it ending just like in 08 and 12. Yeah. But dammit I would rather Die on my Feet than Live on my Knees!

I know you guys have this fire in your belly somewhere. It is time to find it. Time to dig deep. The Republic is in jeopardy, and it is the duty of True-Born Sons everywhere to preserve her. Now is the time to fight with the Constitution in one hand and the Bill of Rights in the other.


I hope to be speaking with you all in the coming days...and please, if I screw up or am doing anything wrong; point it out. The faster I can assimilate the better.

+rep for great first post.

 

[Jonderdonk]

If Rand had 10,000 students and 35,000+ votes identified, then where the heck did all those votes go? WTF!

If Rand can also finish ahead of kasich, shrub, carson, and christy in NH, he's still very much so in the game (and it will probably knock those 3 out of the race very quickly). Especially if he can pull out a top 3 finish in NV and possibly even NH, or finish in NH ahead of anyone in the IA top 3.

Did anyone else see bill during clinton's little speech? He was blatantly leering over hillary's shoulder, checking out someone in the audience, mouthing words and kisses, and maintaining eye contact the entire time. chelsea noticed exactly what he was doing about halfway through, and kept giving him dirty looks and muttering under her breath.

Yes, I noticed

 

[groverblue]

Hello all,

As you can easily tell, this is my first Post ever on Ron Paul Forums. I joined for two reasons. 1st - I've been lurking in the shadows for some time now, reading this forum; and it was time to get involved. 2nd - I feel as though my involvement could be beneficial to the community...or at least I hope it can be.

I've noticed that many of you have taken a very jaded and callous reaction to this 5th place. Are we in ideal positioning? No. Did we do as well as we anticipated? No. But is it over? Not by a long shot.

Trump has been proven vulnerable. Cruz fumbles under pressure. Carson is asleep. Our voice can still be heard!

Is it a tough road? Yes. Is there a good possibility of it ending just like in 08 and 12. Yeah. But dammit I would rather Die on my Feet than Live on my Knees!

I know you guys have this fire in your belly somewhere. It is time to find it. Time to dig deep. The Republic is in jeopardy, and it is the duty of True-Born Sons everywhere to preserve her. Now is the time to fight with the Constitution in one hand and the Bill of Rights in the other.


I hope to be speaking with you all in the coming days...and please, if I screw up or am doing anything wrong; point it out. The faster I can assimilate the better.

The kid stays in the picture.

 

[groverblue]

Did anyone else see bill during clinton's little speech? He was blatantly leering over hillary's shoulder, checking out someone in the audience, mouthing words and kisses, and maintaining eye contact the entire time. chelsea noticed exactly what he was doing about halfway through, and kept giving him dirty looks and muttering under her breath.

tube?

 

[Peace&Freedom]

If Rand had 10,000 students and 35,000+ votes identified, then where the heck did all those votes go? WTF!

If Rand can also finish ahead of kasich, shrub, carson, and christy in NH, he's still very much so in the game (and it will probably knock those 3 out of the race very quickly). Especially if he can pull out a top 3 finish in NV and possibly even NH, or finish in NH ahead of anyone in the IA top 3.

I'll say it again, WE WERE LIED TO about the youth turn out, plain and simple. I posted predictions based on the widely promoted talking points made by Rand and the campaign, which sounded realistic and sincere. It now appears the campaign was just saving face for as long as it could, or else certain consultants lied to them. Sadly, the ONLY plausible plan Rand had to do well in NV or other early states all hinged on him finishing high in Iowa. That didn't happen, so the plans going forward are now all IMplausible.

I specifically recall asking if the campaign had an aggressive plan to car pool youth to the caucuses (not just 'pledges' to recruit them), or a similar plan to get their votes through absentee/early voting where possible. The feedback was that the campaign had these bases covered, don't worry. Just like when Lew Moore told me in mid-2007 the campaign had a plan to combat the poll blackout of Ron Paul, in order to persuade me to drop an independent Zogby poll (that included Paul) I was raising money for. The campaign's plan never materialized.

 

[bunklocoempire]

The kid stays in the picture.

A lot of moxie that one.

 

[fcreature]

I'm reading that Cruz's campaign was telling everyone today that Carson dropped out. They used the story of him going back to Florida tonight to convince people that he had already gotten out of the race. Carson made some complaints about this in a speech.

Cruz is a fucking slime ball. Behind that and the rumors he spread about Carson's faith behind closed doors in the Evangelical communities, the guy basically took out Carson's entire campaign. Looks like he's willing to use any dirty tactic to get elected.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Hello all,

As you can easily tell, this is my first Post ever on Ron Paul Forums. I joined for two reasons. 1st - I've been lurking in the shadows for some time now, reading this forum; and it was time to get involved. 2nd - I feel as though my involvement could be beneficial to the community...or at least I hope it can be.

I've noticed that many of you have taken a very jaded and callous reaction to this 5th place. Are we in ideal positioning? No. Did we do as well as we anticipated? No. But is it over? Not by a long shot.

Trump has been proven vulnerable. Cruz fumbles under pressure. Carson is asleep. Our voice can still be heard!

Is it a tough road? Yes. Is there a good possibility of it ending just like in 08 and 12. Yeah. But dammit I would rather Die on my Feet than Live on my Knees!

I know you guys have this fire in your belly somewhere. It is time to find it. Time to dig deep. The Republic is in jeopardy, and it is the duty of True-Born Sons everywhere to preserve her. Now is the time to fight with the Constitution in one hand and the Bill of Rights in the other.


I hope to be speaking with you all in the coming days...and please, if I screw up or am doing anything wrong; point it out. The faster I can assimilate the better.

+rep

I appreciate your enthusiasm, don't mind us, we're just a tad pissed at the moment.

 

[puppetmaster]

Just posted this on Rand's FB page:

Good job tonight Rand !! Taking 5th place, and beating all the Governors, including a Bush, is highly respectable. Let's take it to New Hampshire. There is so much dirt on Cruz, Rubio, and Trump, the door is still wide open for you during the primaries. Let them self destruct, and let's win this, President Rand Paul .

Yes

 

[CPUd]

 

[CPUd]

I'll say it again, WE WERE LIED TO about the youth turn out, plain and simple. I posted predictions based on the widely promoted talking points made by Rand and the campaign, which sounded realistic and sincere. It now appears the campaign was just saving face for as long as it could, or else certain consultants lied to them. Sadly, the ONLY plausible plan Rand had to do well in NV or other early states all hinged on him finishing high in Iowa. That didn't happen, so the plans going forward are now all IMplausible.

I specifically recall asking if the campaign had an aggressive plan to car pool youth to the caucuses (not just 'pledges' to recruit them), or a similar plan to get their votes through absentee/early voting where possible. The feedback was that the campaign had these bases covered, don't worry. Just like when Lew Moore told me in mid-2007 the campaign had a plan to combat the poll blackout of Ron Paul, in order to persuade me to drop an independent Zogby poll (that included Paul) I was raising money for. The campaign's plan never materialized.

Something fell apart and they're not really saying too much about what it is, but they definitely knew by 5PM something wasn't right.