2014 Senate Races

[Smart3]

SC has five Republican House members. If Demint doesn't run there will be an "establishment" pick anointed from those five (Mulvaney, Scott, etc.) with a pile of PAC money to go against Davis.

According to Gunny, Davis is best-buddies with those guys, so they'd actually back him if he ran a second time.

 

[TCE]

The Liberty Community can barely handle two Senate races, three is absolutely out of the question. Where we get ourselves into trouble is we bite off way more than we can chew as opposed to focusing on winnable races. Jim Forsythe should try for the U.S. House, where he will have a great chance as it is projected to be a Republican Wave year. The primary will be the toughest part. He won't be able to beat a strong incumbent in Shaheen. If one checks out her Wikipedia, she is very, very well connected. Best to stay away from her for now. The House Seats, however, should prove to be easier and less expensive to win. The FSP will have a few hundred more members by then as well.

Graham will not go down easily. The best bet there is for Davis to position himself as the Conservative alternative and begin talking to FreedomWorks, Club For Growth, and Erick Erickson and getting their support. It will be tricky for Rand or DeMint to get involved unless it looks like Davis has a real shot.

 

[Odin]

Do you have the link handy for this?

Sure, it's from September 2011: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_0902925.pdf

 

[AJ Antimony]

The Liberty Community can barely handle two Senate races, three is absolutely out of the question. Where we get ourselves into trouble is we bite off way more than we can chew as opposed to focusing on winnable races. Jim Forsythe should try for the U.S. House, where he will have a great chance as it is projected to be a Republican Wave year. The primary will be the toughest part. He won't be able to beat a strong incumbent in Shaheen. If one checks out her Wikipedia, she is very, very well connected. Best to stay away from her for now. The House Seats, however, should prove to be easier and less expensive to win. The FSP will have a few hundred more members by then as well.

Graham will not go down easily. The best bet there is for Davis to position himself as the Conservative alternative and begin talking to FreedomWorks, Club For Growth, and Erick Erickson and getting their support. It will be tricky for Rand or DeMint to get involved unless it looks like Davis has a real shot.

Handle? Or do you mean 'exclusively donate to'?

If Davis is really as popular in SC as people say he is, then he will easily be able to 'handle' is own campaign and to raise money in SC.

 

[TCE]

Handle? Or do you mean 'exclusively donate to'?

If Davis is really as popular in SC as people say he is, then he will easily be able to 'handle' is own campaign and to raise money in SC.

Campaigns where they are largely supported by us and there is not a close second.

 

[GeorgiaAvenger]

Davis has posted pictures with him alongside Scott, Mulvaney, and DeMint. I don't think that crowd will try to block him.

 

[itshappening]

Does Davis have two legitimate shots?

If he lost to Graham but kept it friendly I dont think he would do damage to himself.

We really need to make sure he gets the funds he needs though.

Taking on Lindsey will attact alot of donations and get him attention outside of this forum.

 

[itshappening]

Davis has posted pictures with him alongside Scott, Mulvaney, and DeMint. I don't think that crowd will try to block him.

Senate GOP Plans to Play Bigger Role in Party Primaries
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...3381062641370.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

It's possible that they might recruit a congressman or some other favored pick for DeMint's seat in 2016.

2014 is a good idea because there's not much they can do to stop us. Graham has all the money he needs, it will be a straight 50/50 if Tom can raise $2 million and up to the GOP electorate.

2016 primary might have 3-4 candidates vying for the seat like in Missouri where Akin prevailed in a 3 way race.

I also agree his name recognition will be up big time if he lost and that can also be a positive. The problem is if it became a bitter fight which im sure Lindsey would want it to be as he will go down in flames and fighting with smears and lies.

 

[itshappening]

If Graham is truly as unpopular in the SCGOP as we think he is, and if Glen is right that Davis is very popular in the SCGOP, then Davis should have no trouble fundraising in that state. Generally, in-state fundraising tells the whole story about whether one has a chance to win or not.

If Davis can at least establish that he will be able to make a serious challenge, I'd expect outside groups to enter the race, like Club for Growth and FreedomWorks.

Most of the money would have to come from out of state, it's impossible to raise the amounts in state.

Rand raised most of his online and at fundraisers in Texas and other places. He managed to raise adequate funds to run a statewide race and keep himself on tv which is incredibly important.

Tom would need $2m from non-special interest folks like US! Also, if he ran in 2014 it might attract donations from traditional conservatives who don't like Graham.

I expect the PACs will come on board once Davis is up and running. I have no doubt about that.

Liberty for All (Ramsey) was willing to spend hundreds of thousands into congressional races so I can't imagine how much he would invest in a Senate race. $500k TV buy goes a long way in SC.

Rand won't be able to help him and neither will DeMint.

Ron Paul might be able to give him help and he will need it.

Ron hosting fundraisers and sending emails is absolutely necessary so I suggest Tom meets the good doctor and asks for his help.

 

[Adrock]

We need to keep an eye on Louisiana and Arkansas too. The Democrat incumbents there look like they may in a very weak position in those states.

 

[Smart3]

We need to keep an eye on Louisiana and Arkansas too. The Democrat incumbents there look like they may in a very weak position in those states.

The R nomination in AR goes to Cotton or Griffin. There's really no doubting that.

As for Louisiana, since there is no primary, you could end up with this result:
42% Dardenne
41% Landrieu
9% Liberty candidate
8% Others

Runoff: Landrieu v Dardenne. She would be likely to win that, just look at her 2008 numbers.

 

[CaptLouAlbano]

I'd like to give you all a little intel on Tom Davis, which should help us access his chances.

First, Davis is very popular in his home district (the 46th). He won his last race with 60% of the vote. What also benefits him is that the district he represents has a large population of retirees, thus the turnout in this district is typically much higher than the state averages. People will turn out for Davis from his home district.

Davis also has some strong allies in the State Senate which will likely support him in his race. The three most notable are Kevin Bryant, Lee Bright and Danny Verdin. All three are in very safe districts, so "going out on a limb" and endorsing a challenger to Graham will not be political suicide for any of these three. These three also bring to Davis a geographical advantage, as they are positioned in various sections of the state.

Four of SC's six GOP Congressmen are Tea Party Caucus members: Duncan, Mulvaney, Scott and Wilson. All four are in safe CD's, the "weakest" of the three being Mulvaney who won this year 55/44. And of course, we also have DeMint who has nothing to lose, and everything to gain with an endorsement. If the narrative for 2014 is that the year will be another Tea Party wave a la 2010, we may see many of these Congressmen jump on board with the challenge, particularly if Graham does something to shoot himself in the foot between now and then.

All in all, I think the prospects for Davis are excellent. He is no stranger to challenging an incumbent in the primary and winning. And in the worst case scenario, that he loses the primary race, it gets him enough exposure that he is a virtual shoe-in for 2016.

 

[compromise]

Senate GOP Plans to Play Bigger Role in Party Primaries
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...3381062641370.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

It's possible that they might recruit a congressman or some other favored pick for DeMint's seat in 2016.

2014 is a good idea because there's not much they can do to stop us. Graham has all the money he needs, it will be a straight 50/50 if Tom can raise $2 million and up to the GOP electorate.

2016 primary might have 3-4 candidates vying for the seat like in Missouri where Akin prevailed in a 3 way race.

I also agree his name recognition will be up big time if he lost and that can also be a positive. The problem is if it became a bitter fight which im sure Lindsey would want it to be as he will go down in flames and fighting with smears and lies.

I wouldn't worry about Cruz and Moran supporting Graham over Davis. Davis doesn't seem like a guy who'd say anything stupid.
Mulvaney and Scott are also Tea Party guys and friendly with Davis, I don't see them endorsing Graham.

 

[itshappening]

Graham doesn't need endorsements, no sitting R congressman or senator will support a primary opponent.

Graham has 4.4 million of lobbyist cash in the bank, that's all he needs.

Davis will have to work to overcome the cash advantage and the lack of help from GOP figures.

It will be up to us and conservatives who don't like GRAHAM to fill the coffers and get the word out.

Graham is vulnerable within the party, look at his PPP numbers compared to DeMint (who has high approvals)

 

[compromise]

Graham doesn't need endorsements, no sitting R congressman or senator will support a primary opponent.

Graham has 4.4 million of lobbyist cash in the bank, that's all he needs.

Davis will have to work to overcome the cash advantage and the lack of help from GOP figures.

It will be up to us and conservatives who don't like GRAHAM to fill the coffers and get the word out.

Graham is vulnerable within the party, look at his PPP numbers compared to DeMint (who has high approvals)

Mourdock and Lee both successfully beat the incumbent in the primaries. Should Davis run, I see out of state members of Congress like Amash and Rand Paul, who don't really care about Graham, endorsing him in the primary stage, with most of his support coming from groups like Freedomworks, Club for Growth and Tea Party Express and possibly some talk show hosts and political commentators like Alex Jones, Peter Schiff and maybe even Beck, Levin, Malkin, Cupp and the like (although this is probably unlikely). Once the primary is over, SC natives like DeMint, Scott and Mulvaney will probably endorse him.

 

[AJ Antimony]

Most of the money would have to come from out of state, it's impossible to raise the amounts in state.

It's impossible to raise money in-state when you are an unknown Ron Paul supporter running out of nowhere. This is why Rand, Amash, and Schiff needed help. They never held elected office before, and they were never before involved in local party politics. They had nobody to ask for money other than Ron Paul Nation. Davis is different. He wasn't recruited by Ron Paul to run for his first office. He's not a nobody running for U.S. Senate. According to what I've read here (taken with a grain of salt of course), Davis is well known in South Carolina, and clearly has experience working in SC political circles. If he is truly as popular in the SCGOP as some of you say he is, and if Graham is as unpopular in the SCGOP as some of you say he is, then that means he will be able to raise money (from big donors) in SC. Period.

Rand raised most of his online and at fundraisers in Texas and other places. He managed to raise adequate funds to run a statewide race and keep himself on tv which is incredibly important.

Yes, most of Rand's money came from out of state. Again, this is because he never ran for office before thus he had very little political connections in Kentucky. But the connections (eventually) were made because at the end of the race, 33% of Rand's money came from the state of Kentucky. his top metro areas were:

CINCINNATI, OH-KY-IN $265,765
LOUISVILLE, KY-IN $260,307
LEXINGTON $166,911
NEW YORK $118,670
HOUSTON $112,182

Source: http://www.opensecrets.org/races/geog.php?cycle=2010&id=KYS2

Tom would need $2m from non-special interest folks like US! Also, if he ran in 2014 it might attract donations from traditional conservatives who don't like Graham.

I expect the PACs will come on board once Davis is up and running. I have no doubt about that.

Liberty for All (Ramsey) was willing to spend hundreds of thousands into congressional races so I can't imagine how much he would invest in a Senate race. $500k TV buy goes a long way in SC.

Again, if what we hear about Davis and Graham is completely true, there shouldn't be any problems raising 1 or 2 million. This isn't counting outside spending. Yes, if Davis can establish himself as a competitive challenger to Graham, the outside money will pour in. Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, Liberty for All, etc.

Rand won't be able to help him and neither will DeMint.

This isn't entirely true. DeMint raises money through the Senate Conservatives Fund. They can spend money on the race. Rand also has his own pac, RandPac I believe, and they were spending money in the 2012 general election airing 1 minute long TV ads attacking Democratic incumbents on their foreign aid votes.

The only thing that might stop them from getting involved is decorum. Usually, incumbents of any party do not attack each other. Rand going after incumbent Democrats was considered distasteful. I'd imagine him going after an incumbent Republican would be very, very distasteful. Imagine if Graham won, they would never work together again. And Graham might then spend money to attack Rand in his future elections. So we will see.

Ron Paul might be able to give him help and he will need it.

Ron hosting fundraisers and sending emails is absolutely necessary so I suggest Tom meets the good doctor and asks for his help.

Not sure what he can do other than send out fundraising emails. Remember, Ron isn't exactly the most popular guy in GOP circles. The Davis campaign won't use him or ask for his help if it will actually hurt their image among GOP voters. And also remember, as a member of Congress, Ron made a deal to never 'campaign' against Republican incumbents. Even though he's not elected anymore, it still might be distasteful and unpopular to get involved.

And I guarantee they met before the Rally in Tampa. They probably met before the SC presidential primary.

 

[itshappening]

Not sure what he can do other than send out fundraising emails. Remember, Ron isn't exactly the most popular guy in GOP circles. The Davis campaign won't use him or ask for his help if it will actually hurt their image among GOP voters. And also remember, as a member of Congress, Ron made a deal to never 'campaign' against Republican incumbents. Even though he's not elected anymore, it still might be distasteful and unpopular to get involved.

And I guarantee they met before the Rally in Tampa. They probably met before the SC presidential primary.

sending out emails and holding fundraisers is what Ron can do for Davis, it was incredibly important for Rand Paul and Amash

 

[AJ Antimony]

I'd like to give you all a little intel on Tom Davis, which should help us access his chances.

First, Davis is very popular in his home district (the 46th). He won his last race with 60% of the vote. What also benefits him is that the district he represents has a large population of retirees, thus the turnout in this district is typically much higher than the state averages. People will turn out for Davis from his home district.

Davis also has some strong allies in the State Senate which will likely support him in his race. The three most notable are Kevin Bryant, Lee Bright and Danny Verdin. All three are in very safe districts, so "going out on a limb" and endorsing a challenger to Graham will not be political suicide for any of these three. These three also bring to Davis a geographical advantage, as they are positioned in various sections of the state.

Four of SC's six GOP Congressmen are Tea Party Caucus members: Duncan, Mulvaney, Scott and Wilson. All four are in safe CD's, the "weakest" of the three being Mulvaney who won this year 55/44. And of course, we also have DeMint who has nothing to lose, and everything to gain with an endorsement. If the narrative for 2014 is that the year will be another Tea Party wave a la 2010, we may see many of these Congressmen jump on board with the challenge, particularly if Graham does something to shoot himself in the foot between now and then.

All in all, I think the prospects for Davis are excellent. He is no stranger to challenging an incumbent in the primary and winning. And in the worst case scenario, that he loses the primary race, it gets him enough exposure that he is a virtual shoe-in for 2016.

Now I feel worse about his chances because to me it sounds like you're describing a typical, respected state legislator. Nothing in your descriptions sounds exceptional.

* He won re-election with 60%? That doesn't mean he's very popular, that means he's representing a standard, 60/40 gerrymandered GOP district. I'd imagine most other SC senators were reelected by a similar margin.

* He has retirees in his district? Every district does, especially the GOP districts. Again, I guarantee every other safe GOP legislator has a large number of retirees in their districts.

* People would turn out for Davis in his home district? Yeah, you'd hope so, but I get the feeling you really don't know if this is true or not, and I don't now either. For all we know, the people in his district really like Davis as a state senator, and also really like Graham as a US Senator. Furthermore, this will be a midterm election. Turn out is worse in the midterm elections, especially the primaries. But yes, you'd think a district would support their own guy for higher office.

* Davis has allies in the State Senate? So does every other GOP member of the legislature. And you name 3. How many can Graham name? I suspect more.

* Davis's allies represent different districts? Yes, anyone can say that.

* SC has 4 Tea Party congressmen and they would be willing to endorse a Graham primary challenger if it was politically feasible? Then why won't one of them want to challenge Graham? A Congressman is in better position to run for senate than a state legislator. Their bigger office means they have more voters, allies, and donors available to them than a guy from a relatively small legislative district.

 

[compromise]

It's impossible to raise money in-state when you are an unknown Ron Paul supporter running out of nowhere. This is why Rand, Amash, and Schiff needed help. They never held elected office before, and they were never before involved in local party politics. They had nobody to ask for money other than Ron Paul Nation. Davis is different. He wasn't recruited by Ron Paul to run for his first office.

Amash was in the Michigan House of Representatives for two year prior to running for US Congress. His vote explanations had made him quite popular among Republicans in his district.

 

[realtonygoodwin]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/84001.html

According to this, the GOP establishment may be getting more involved in the primaries.

Of note:

And South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, the tea party leader, said in an interview that he won’t target GOP incumbents who could face primary challenges, including his home-state colleague, Lindsey Graham and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.