2014 Senate Races

[AJ Antimony]

I was seeing if McCain was up for reelection but he isn't. It would be cool to have Goldwater Jr. primary him, and Barry is two years younger(74).

edit-shouldn't have assumed he is from Arizona, he is actually from California. There goes that.

McCain was up in 2010. He was challenged in the primary by former US Rep. JD Hayworth.

Goldwater Jr. was a US Rep from CA, but I think he lives in AZ now.

 

[clint4liberty]

I think we should pour all of our efforts into just two US Senate races. We need to get Lindsay Graham of South Carolina out with Tom Davis in and elect Joe Miller in Alaska. Other races we focus on should be US House, State Senate, State House, but only two US Senator races.

 

[Smart3]

I think we should pour all of our efforts into just two US Senate races. We need to get Lindsay Graham of South Carolina out with Tom Davis in and elect Joe Miller in Alaska. Other races we focus on should be US House, State Senate, State House, but only two US Senator races.

How about 3? SC/NC/AK?

We can probably gain no more than 5-7 U.S. House seats, and most of those gains will be from retirements (KY-1, MN-2, etc)

 

[realtonygoodwin]

Do we think South Carolina is winnable for Tom Davis? Look at how South Carolina treated Ron Paul during the primary and the debates...

Agreed on Alaska and North Carolina. I think New Hampshire is a possibility, there must be a decent candidate up there.

We also need to see what races won't have an incumbent running. If we can win a primary, we will be in a good spot to win the state.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

Do we think South Carolina is winnable for Tom Davis? Look at how South Carolina treated Ron Paul during the primary and the debates...

Agreed on Alaska and North Carolina. I think New Hampshire is a possibility, there must be a decent candidate up there.

We also need to see what races won't have an incumbent running. If we can win a primary, we will be in a good spot to win the state.

South Carolina loves Tom Davis. Don't forget that most people don't even perceive the message, and scarcely look deeper than the clothes that the messenger is wearing.

 

[Smart3]

Do we think South Carolina is winnable for Tom Davis? Look at how South Carolina treated Ron Paul during the primary and the debates...

Agreed on Alaska and North Carolina. I think New Hampshire is a possibility, there must be a decent candidate up there.

We also need to see what races won't have an incumbent running. If we can win a primary, we will be in a good spot to win the state.

I can't imagine Forsythe beating a self-funder, so I'd say NH is about as likely as Maine right now.

 

[John F Kennedy III]

What about Ronnie Paul?

 

[Smart3]

What about Ronnie Paul?

I floated Ronnie before, but I think Robert is much more likely.

 

[John F Kennedy III]

I floated Ronnie before, but I think Robert is much more likely.

And it seems Robert isn't going to run for anything. What about Wayne?



Hmmmm. William Paul is 18...

 

[itshappening]

Davis will need money to challenge GRAHAM but he can run a good campaign and tap into the conservative frustration with Lindsey who has been censured by county parties and who supported bailouts, cap and trade etc.

Can he beat him i dont know? he needs a few million to get his name out there, run the campaign, be on tv and radio and then see what happens.

This is why it should be our focus as I doubt we can raise significant funds for multiple candidates in senate races.

 

[AJ Antimony]

Davis will need money to challenge GRAHAM but he can run a good campaign and tap into the conservative frustration with Lindsey who has been censured by county parties and who supported bailouts, cap and trade etc.

Can he beat him i dont know? he needs a few million to get his name out there, run the campaign, be on tv and radio and then see what happens.

This is why it should be our focus as I doubt we can raise significant funds for multiple candidates in senate races.

If Graham is truly as unpopular in the SCGOP as we think he is, and if Glen is right that Davis is very popular in the SCGOP, then Davis should have no trouble fundraising in that state. Generally, in-state fundraising tells the whole story about whether one has a chance to win or not.

If Davis can at least establish that he will be able to make a serious challenge, I'd expect outside groups to enter the race, like Club for Growth and FreedomWorks.

 

[Odin]

Do we think South Carolina is winnable for Tom Davis? Look at how South Carolina treated Ron Paul during the primary and the debates...

Agreed on Alaska and North Carolina. I think New Hampshire is a possibility, there must be a decent candidate up there.

We also need to see what races won't have an incumbent running. If we can win a primary, we will be in a good spot to win the state.

According to this PPP poll I'm looking at, among 'very' conservative voters Graham's approve-disapprove is 42-42. For DeMint it is 75-10.

For 'somewhat conservative', Graham has 53-29, and 'moderate' he has 35-36.


A good candidate I think could beat him but it would be a tough fight.

 

[eleganz]

Iowa, NH, or SC (Tom Davis) for benefits in 2016 as well.

Other than that, we need to strengthen in states where we are already very strong in the GOP: Iowa, Nevada, Louisiana, Maine, NH, MN, Oregon, etc...

 

[realtonygoodwin]

According to this PPP poll I'm looking at, among 'very' conservative voters Graham's approve-disapprove is 42-42. For DeMint it is 75-10.

For 'somewhat conservative', Graham has 53-29, and 'moderate' he has 35-36.


A good candidate I think could beat him but it would be a tough fight.

Do you have the link handy for this?

 

[John F Kennedy III]

Davis will need money to challenge GRAHAM but he can run a good campaign and tap into the conservative frustration with Lindsey who has been censured by county parties and who supported bailouts, cap and trade etc.

Can he beat him i dont know? he needs a few million to get his name out there, run the campaign, be on tv and radio and then see what happens.

This is why it should be our focus as I doubt we can raise significant funds for multiple candidates in senate races.

$2 million? $4? $6? $10?

 

[John F Kennedy III]

If a candidate loses in 2014 can they run for that state's OTHER senate seat in 2016? We could end up snowballing some of our candidates in.

 

[Smart3]

If a candidate loses in 2014 can they run for that state's OTHER senate seat in 2016? We could end up snowballing some of our candidates in.

Most of the states up in 2014 have another seat up in 2016. An open DeMint seat in 2016 is our only guarantee Davis is SC's next Senator.

 

[Adrock]

I am pretty sure DeMint will stick to his word about retiring in 2016.

Helping Davis in 2014 is a win-win.

Either he beats Graham and it helps our presidential candidate in 2016.

Or he at least gets his name recognition up in 2014, making it much easier for him to win the seat in 2016.

 

[musicmax]

Here is how each of the above states' incumbent Senator scored on the October 2012 "Freedom Index" It isn't a perfect metric, but it is a good starting point to see where they vote on liberty issues. In parentheses (sp?) is the score of the state's other Senator. This may be a good way to gauge how open the state may be to a more liberty-oriented Senator. The larger the gap between the two numbers, the more likely a strong liberty candidate could win, IMO. If the difference is a negative number, it may be more difficult.

South Carolina - 73 (85)

A "Liberty Index" that scores Graham a 73 is fatally flawed.

 

[musicmax]

Most of the states up in 2014 have another seat up in 2016. An open DeMint seat in 2016 is our only guarantee Davis is SC's next Senator.

SC has five Republican House members. If Demint doesn't run there will be an "establishment" pick anointed from those five (Mulvaney, Scott, etc.) with a pile of PAC money to go against Davis.